Breakout Candidates in 2012: Bats
Every year, guys reach that critical stage in their development when they finally translate their God-given baseball "tools" into on-field performance. They "break out," moving from longterm project status onto the major league depth chart. John Hellweg did it in 2011. Mark Trumbo and Tyler Chatwood did it in 2010. Over the next couple of months, I'm going to profile guys who are the most likely to burst onto the prospect scene in 2012, beginning with the bats.
Travis Witherspoon, CF: .250/.316/.392 with 13 HR and 46 SB in 2011 @ Low A and High A
The Dream: If I could wager on a prospect who's most likely to break out, I'd choose Witherspoon. Tom Kotchman is still using Mike Cameron as a comp, with his unique blend of speed, power and defense, for what Witherspoon's career could look like.
What He Is Now: Witherspoon's tools resemble those of Peter Bourjos and Jeremy Moore, balancing plus speed and athleticism with growing strength. His best present skill is defense: twice I've asked guys in and around the organization about other minor league centerfielders, and their response began with, "well, he's no Travis Witherspoon out there, but..." Witherspoon may not quite be as "historically good" as Fleet Pete, but he's the best of the present Angels' farmhands, and could be a plus defender at the major league level.
Witherspoon uses his plus speed extremely well on the bases, showing strong instincts for timing pitchers and getting good jumps. In 2010, he stole 20 bags without getting caught once. Last year, he swiped 41 bags at an above average 79% success rate.
Witherspoon is still trying to figure out what kind of hitter he can be. His strength and bat speed already give him average power versus minor league competition, and the pop should only increase as his pitch recognition improves. His batted ball data vacillated wildly last year, swinging from a flyball/linedrive power profile in April to an extreme groundball distribution in May, which corresponded with his move to the leadoff spot. He rediscovered his loft later in the year, even winning the Midwest League homerun derby at the allstar break and hitting a bunch of bombs in June and July. I see the vacillation as a positive marker, because while his efforts haven't yet translated into good numbers, he's showing the ability to make adjustments and work with coaching. His approach at the plate is still a work in progress - he has some issues with contact - but he's making an effort to work deeper counts and his walk rate is on the rise.
2012 Forecast: Baseball America reports that the Angels are having him focus on leveling his cut and hitting to the opposite field with the Inland Empire 66'ers in 2012, but he might just blow up the California League and knock 20 bombs while swiping 50 bags.
The Baseball America website has published its 2012 Top Ten Angels Prospects and their list matches the one made for Halos Heaven by our minor league analyst Ryan Ghan pretty closely. Add in the recent prospect rankings of John Sickels at SBN's Minor League Ball and a clear picture begins to emerge of just who Angels fans should be on the lookout for in the coming years.
4 ) John Hellweg, 10/29/1988 -- rhrp/rhsp, High A
7 wins, 4 losses. 95.2 IP, 3.67 ERA, 76 hits, 121 K/63 BB. 13 runs saved, 2.9 WAR
MLB dot com has gotten into the whole prospect-ranking business. After years of letting Baseball America and John Sickels brag about his great-grandchildren, Bud Selig's site is using spiffy graphics to highlight a Top 100 Prospects List on its heavy traffic main website. There is even an archived link to their 2011 selections... Oooo they've been at this a while.
Three Angels lead the list, with outfielder Mike Trout ranked #3 in all of the sport, infielder Jean Segura #55 and pitcher Garrett Richards at #67. Pretty good - not the best showing by any team, not the worst.
But there are two that got away... Tony Reagins traded Left Handed Starting Pitcher Tyler Skaggs to the Diamondbacks in the summer of 2010 as part of the Dan Haren deal. Of course, Jerry Dipoto had a hand in that as the then-acting General Manager of Arizona's National League team. MLB's #38 selection is Matt Harvey, a 3rd round selection in the 2007 draft who had big bonus money demands that Arte Moreno did not meet. Harvey went in the first round of the 2010 draft, the 7th overall pick by the Mets after a distinguished stint on the college mound. Harvey struck out 156 batters in 125 IP last year split equally between High-A and AA.
Blame Tony, Jerry and Arte that the Angels have 3 and not 5 players in MLB's current Top 100 Prospects.
Skaggs, Trout and Richards was part of the 2009 motherlode draft with 5 picks in the first 48 picks as compensation for losing John Lackey and Francisco Rodriguez and even Jon Garland. One lost aside from that is the Rockies got the 32nd and 34th picks in the first round as compensation for losing Brian Fuentes to the Angels as a free agent signing. One of the picks was Rex Brothers, he of the 13 K/9 in 40 major league innings pitched last season. The two draftees of those first five not on the big radars are the oft-injured but still mashing Randal Grichuk and pitcher Tyler Kehrer who repeated Low-A Cedar Rapids in 2011 and has yet to post an ERA under 4.
10) Kole Calhoun, 10/14/1987 -- Of/1B, High A
.324/.410/.547 with 23 HR and 20 SB. +33 runs bat, -3 glove, 4.0 WAR
2) Garrett Richards, 5/27/1988 -- rhrp/rhsp, AA and MLB
12 wins, 2 losses. 143 IP, 3.15 ERA, 123 hits, 103 K/40 BB. 19 runs saved, 3.9 WAR in 2011
The 2012 Angels could use another power arm out of the pen, a guy who can shut the opposition down at critical, middle-inning moments with a timely K or groundball. In 2013, the Halos will need another cost-controlled, mid-rotation workhorse. Richards should be one - and hopefully both - of those guys, so how the Angels handle him will be one of the more interesting subplots of the upcoming season.
Despite his inconsistency in the majors last season, Richards flashes enough brilliance to play a big role with the Angels in 2012. He has two great pitches: a booming, mid-to-high 90's fastball that he can cut in against lefthanders, and a dynamite slider with hard downward bite. Every once in awhile he throws a sweet change-up, so with more consistent execution his arsenal could total three plus offerings. Bringing back his get-me over curveball down the road would be icing on the cake.
Former Angels' scouting director Eddie Bane drafted Richards in the 2009 supplemental first round, bucking consensus and betting big on the righty's arm strength and promising secondary arsenal despite a lackluster amateur track record. Richards lived up to Bane's hopes, steadily improving his stock over two and a half seasons as a pro. With his AA performance in 2011, it looks like his numbers have finally caught up to the superlative scouting reports.
Bane's legacy with the Angels not only includes Richards, but also the trust he puts in his player development people to mold high upside arms into MLB material; in my opinion, the success or failure of the 2011 draft will hinge largely on the development of strong-armed Nick Maronde, Nick Mutz and Austin Wood, all of whom flopped as starters in their amateur career despite impressive raw stuff. One or more of them could follow in Richards' footsteps.
9) Taylor Lindsey, 12/02/1991 -- 2B, Adv Rookie Ball
.362/.394/.593 with 10 HR's and 10 SB's. +14 runs bat, +4 runs glove, 2.7 WAR
Ranking in a Nutshell: If I could do it all over again, I would slide Lindsey forward two slots in the rankings because of this new data point. Our Pioneer League MVP was the only member of the talented 2011 Orem Owlz to receive an invite to major league spring training camp, which probably means that he impressed the brass with a good showing in fall instructs. Success in that environment tends to carry over into the following season, so I'm pumped to see him play with the big boys in March.
My reasons for putting Lindsey towards the back end of this list were two-fold: he's a bat first prospect, projecting to have below average speed, arm strength, and athleticism; second, there are some question marks about the bat, because he may only be good for batting average down the road if the patience fails to develop and his pull power doesn't play as well at the upper levels. It's not exactly an apple to apples comparison, but growing into a player similar to Alexi Amarista is a likely outcome. Or he's a left-handed Howie Kendrick - awesomeness - but guys who hit well enough for us to forget about walks and power are rare. At age 20, Howie hit .367 in full season ball, so the bar for Lindsey heading into his age 20 season is very high if that's the kind of player he's going to be.
Track Record: Lindsey put himself on the prospect map in high school by batting over .500 in two consecutive seasons, yet most analysts considered him an overdraft when the Halos tapped him in the 2010 supplementary round. He signed quickly and put up a solid .284/.325/.407 line in Arizona rookie ball. That was good but not great, since Angels fans had just watched Mike Trout and Randal Grichuk hit .360/.418/.506 and .322/.352/.551 respectively in Tempe the season before.
Needless to say, Lindsey broke out at Orem, competing all season long with teammates Frazier Hall and Jerod Yakubik for the Pioneer League batting title, hitting for the cycle at one point, and ultimately winning league MVP honors. There were a lot of positives: his strikeout rate dropped each month, reflecting skill growth even as the competition around him improved; he rapped 10 doubles and hit .353 to the opposite field, abating previous fears that he was too pull conscious; he mashed lefties just as well as righties, hanging in against breaking stuff and putting up a .352 BA against them; and his defense was rock solid, even if scouts don't like his range or arm much. On the other hand, he walked only 4% of the time. That's entirely understandable since Lindsey discovered early in the season that he could mash anything thrown his way, but it's something to look out for at the higher levels.
Like Kaleb Cowart, Lindsey added a leg kick to his swing despite not using one in high school. You can't argue with the results, but I'll be interested to see if he continues to use it down the road. He has quick hands, a short swing, and generally makes good contact. His plate coverage is above-average, and he shows good instincts for both dropping the bat head and turning on balls for power.
Win the Lottery Ceiling: Lindsey may be much closer to hitting .300 with 15 homeruns in the big leagues than Owlz teammate Kaleb Cowart, but he's still a long, long ways off.
6) Nick Maronde, 09/05/1989 -- LHSP, Adv Rookie Ball
5 wins, 0 losses. 51.1 IP, 2.10 ERA, 41 hits, 56 K/19 BB. 22 runs saved, 2.6 WAR
Ranking in a nutshell: As a big three-pitch lefty with easy velocity, Maronde has the raw ingredients to be a frontline starter in the big leagues. Tom Kotchman talked him up to me generally and labeled his change-up a "major league pitch," which is great news since that offering will be key to Maronde's success in pro ball. Baseball America likes his new two seam fastball, and especially his breaking ball, saying that "neither righties nor lefties could square up his slider when it was at its best."
Sources I like (here and here) are more conservative, projecting him as a back of the rotation guy or a set up man due to the mediocre offspeed stuff and iffy command that undercut his success as an amateur. Their position is perfectly reasonable; I just think, given the exciting reports about his stuff in pro ball and the success the Angels have had in recent years developing guys like this, that Maronde could wind up with a higher ceiling than expected.
Track record: He flamed out as a starter in at the University of Florida, despite the good fastball, but met success as a reliever in his junior season. His numbers at Orem were very good, but Pioneer League performance is usually not predictive. He's at a similar career crossroads as Pat Corbin and Tyler Kehrer were following the 2009 season, and one of those guys took off in full season league while the other couldn't throw enough strikes to get A-Ball hitters out consistently. The track record just doesn't give us a clear idea about what his numbers will look like next year.
Win the Lottery Ceiling: A classic #2 lefty, ready to line up behind a right-handed ace in playoff action. In that way he's similar to CJ Wison, actually. If he doesn't reach that ceiling, it's very easy to imagine him winding up a fine, high leverage reliever.
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