Stephen Dunn - Getty Images
Hawaii 5-7 ?!?!?!
The Angels rotation is Jered Weaver, Dan Haren, C.J. Wilson, Ervin Santana and then a misty fog. With so much depth at some positions (OF, 1B, DH), the team is not really built to withstand a lengthy ache or pain to the arm or arms of the front four.
And so there sits Jerome Williams with the inside track, Garrett Richards as the crown prince of seasons future, Trevor Bell squeezed out of the bullpen and too good to be 2012's Matt Palmer Salt Lake redux and then... well and then a steep cliff.
With LaTroy Hawkins splashing in, the bullpen back of Hisanori Takahashi, Scott Downs and Jordan Walden seems solid, with optionable Bobby Cassevah and Man at Work Rich Thompson on the periphery as well. If it is a game of musical arms to be played at the Bullpen Preschool of Anaheim, there is league average depth and not much more. But do we really need a reliever in the form of Ryan Madson or a fifth starter in the mold of Roy Oswalt? What do you think?
0 recs | 96 comments
Ryan Madson, if we could get him cheap, would be fantastic
I’m talking a two year deal, maybe 10-11 million per. Anything more than that, foggedaboudit. If we skip Madson, Luis Ayala could be pretty useful – he had a great season last year, but doesn’t have a track record of success. As for a fifth starter, screw it; Williams/Richards should be enough to hold it down.
nicolasville - January 2, 2012
I think the market has dwindled enough on Madson
To push it to 7-8 Mil per year.
ryanfea - January 2, 2012
That kind of money for a dude
who pitches one inning a game, 4 or 5 times a week?
NathanielS - January 2, 2012
Yes
It’s called a closer
marshgr - January 2, 2012
A "proven closer"?
Lols
NathanielS - January 2, 2012 via iPhone app
Appropriately blunt:
“Roles are bullshit. Your job is to throw strikes when I put your ass out on the mound.”
- Dick Radatz, as pitching coach of the North Shore Spirit, 2004
LAASurfin - January 2, 2012
Exactly.
Paying relievers a lot of money hardly ever works out, unless you’re Mariano Rivera. The role is the role of a pitcher that throws strikes, 4/44 or whatever he’s asking is ridiculous. There are better options.
NathanielS - January 2, 2012
The dude was worth 2.2 WAR last year
Granted, maybe that’s not worth 10 million a year, but in a market where closers of his value are vastly overpaid (see Papelbon, Jonathan), he would come as a relative bargain. He doesn’t walk a whole lot of batters, and strikes out batters at a good rate. I would sure as hell love to have a guy come in the ninth and not walk a ton while dealing with batters with as little cardiovascular stress as possible.
nicolasville - January 2, 2012
Proven?
How long has Madsen proven himself for? He shouldn’t get Papelbon type money, that droop lipped special needs hurler has been good for years. Madsen’s been good for what? One and a half?
He’s barely crossed the Turnbow level of Proven Closerdom. I’d rather go with what we have and switch to Downs at closer if Walden sucks…. and not pay Madsen.
gitchogritchoffmypetis - January 2, 2012
The Mendoza Line for closers
The Turnbow Level—I like that. And to carry that it its logical conclusion, we all know what happened when Milwaukee saw flashes of competence in Derrick Turnbow:
The Brewers signed him to $6.5M/3 before the 2006 season, and by July the name of the Brewers’ closer was Francisco Cordero. Turnbow got progressively worse, to the point he was sent to the minors (a year later and still making $2M a year) and went full Nuke Laloosh.
Yes, please, let’s extrapolate a small sample of success into a fat, guaranteed, multiyear deal, and hope he crosses the Turnbow Level.
I vote that this term become an official part of the HH Lexicon, effective today.
George Kaplan - January 3, 2012
Tranks Rorge.
gitchogritchoffmypetis - January 3, 2012
Vernon Wells was worth 6.7 WAR in 2006
That fat deal he signed sure guaranteed more of the same in the years which followed, didn’t it?
George Kaplan - January 3, 2012
Madson hasn't had a bad year since '06
And he was a starter then. He’s consistently put up a WAR of approximately 1.5 in relief the past five years, with 2.2 last year. No, he hasn’t been “closer worthy” for that whole time, but he was a damn solid closer last year. The peripherals are there, and there’s absolutely no reason why he shouldn’t hold up for a two year deal. Anything more than that is plausible but too much of a risk.
Wells is irrelevant – he was solid before then, no doubt, but he was undone with the help of injuries, and that was a ridiculously risky deal anyway. Madson has been a workhorse reliever. Nobody is immune from injury and regression (especially relievers), but as far as relievers go, Madson would definitely rank among the most durable. He’s a better pitcher than anyone in our bullpen not named Downs (they’re probably about equal). We don’t know how Downs would do in the closing role, especially with his drop in K’s, but we sure know what Madson can do.
nicolasville - January 3, 2012
WAR is silly.
Just look at save percentage when evaluating relievers.
Fernando Rodney had a great save percentage and then was terrible for us. The lesson learned with that is only sign relievers with a greater save percentage than Fernando Rodney or just don’t sign Fernando Rodney ever again.
snowhor - January 3, 2012
If Madsen signs for only 2 years it's gonna be for a lot of money.
gitchogritchoffmypetis - January 3, 2012
Weaver to Downs to Madson sounds great
Also works using Haren, Santana, Wilson, or Williams.
JeffJoiner - January 2, 2012 via mobile
Madson's One Season As A Closer
is causing his market to fall to maybe 1 or 2 year status. He should be selling himself as a solid option as a set up man or closer, who can be dominant in both roles, but does not have the track record to be penciled in as the closer. Still would be a great pick up for this bullpen.
RyÅn Krol - January 3, 2012
The poll is so far in favor of Jerome that it looks like a middle finger.
As in: Yeah, I’ll be the fifth starter. Thanks.
5thStarter - January 2, 2012
Bold prediction for 2012
Jerome Williams is the Vance Worley of the Angels.
5thStarter - January 2, 2012
Vance Worley?
Lucille Ball’s best friend?
George Kaplan - January 2, 2012
That would be Vivian, sir.
5thStarter - January 2, 2012
Man
you just really dated yourself.
Caseys Kiss of Death - January 2, 2012
Yes, but I always insisted upon a chaperone
I know how forward I can get after a couple of drinks.
George Kaplan - January 3, 2012
I think it is Williams job until he loses it on merit or
somebody takes it away from him on merit. I will be quite pleased if he can get the win in 4 out of every six games he appears in…
Unclearnie - January 2, 2012
Make that 4 out of every 6 he starts.
Unclearnie - January 2, 2012
im hoping for that out of our Aces not Williams.. Hes not a 20 game winner... 12-15 wins from our 5 spot would be nice
Frank158369 - January 2, 2012
You are probably correct, but he won 4 out of 6 last year
Unclearnie - January 2, 2012
Jerome earned it. Great find in the bargain bin.
Pipo - January 2, 2012
I would really like us to pick up someone else in FA.
Jerome did great, but the lack of depth is troubling. There are ALWAYS injuries, so we should be finding ways to mitigate that upfront.
I think that 5th starter is a much bigger need than another reliever, even as good as Madson has been, and would be cheaper, imo.
matthiasstephan - January 2, 2012
I heard Trumbo can pitch.
Abreu can play center and Trout can catch.
Halowitz - January 2, 2012 via mobile
Trumbo
can actually run it up there in the mid 90s
BigGame48 - January 2, 2012
This
He has a hell of an arm. He’d probably be okay in RF if we didn’t have Hunter.
nicolasville - January 2, 2012
One reason I'm not as worried as most
About giving Trumbo a shot at the hot corner. He’s got a cannon, and he’s used to reacting to hot shots from in tight.
highlandhalo - January 3, 2012
that last sentence can be interpreted in one too many ways
2pintsofbooze - January 3, 2012
I'm cool with Jerome, but I voted for Trevor
The way Bell’s been used makes me think the FO (at least the old one) had soured to him for one reason or another.
I don’t understand why he hasn’t gotten more of a chance seeing that he’s still only 25 and boasts a five-pitch repertoire. If not for the crazy .371 BABIP against, his numbers would be fine.
I’m hoping he’s the first to take the mound if Jerome doesn’t pan out.
Nathan Aderhold - January 2, 2012
I'd like it
if they at least stuck him in the pen as a long man
he’s not doing us any good in AAA
the king of CERA - January 2, 2012
Voted Bell as well
Williams do fine holding down that 5th spot but Bell has more upside in my opinion.
BigGame48 - January 2, 2012
I've always liked Bell
For the past two years I’ve wanted him to get a shot when Kazmir and Chatwood were struggling. I figured I would rather give him a chance than watch a guaranteed walk or two per inning.
JeffJoiner - January 2, 2012 via mobile
Isn't BABIP only a fluke when high IF it's an aberration?
Like, if Bell was putting up a career .310 BABIP year after year, and suddenly spiked like that for one season, maybe it’s a fluke. But if your BABIP is particularly high with no record of ever being low, that’s not necessarily “crazy,” so much as you’re just throwing immensely hittable stuff.
Caseys Kiss of Death - January 2, 2012
depends on the sample size
the larger and more consistent sample size the better it sticks to the statistical model
Rev Halofan - January 2, 2012
Yeah, that's sorta what I mean
it’s too soon to simply say he’s been unfortunate with a .371 BABIP, because there’s no track record or sample size in which he was anything but a .371 BABIP.
Caseys Kiss of Death - January 2, 2012
Bell's career BABIP is .371
But his batted ball data suggests it should be .323.
Bell does throw “hittable stuff” but he’s been pretty unfortunate so far.
BigGame48 - January 2, 2012
I'm pretty sure it'll come down, too
but I don’t think you’re unfortunate for a high BABIP until you actually show you’re better than someone with a high BABIP.
In the scheme of things, especially across a small, small sample size like Bell’s, the difference between a .323 BABIP and a .371 BABIP is literally an extremely small number of balls falling in…I don’t see that as unfortunate so much as maybe a failure to execute precise location on some pitches. Maybe if he had better spotted 5-10 pitches in his short career, he has 5-10 balls not hit as sharply.
Caseys Kiss of Death - January 2, 2012
He also pitched with a Rivera/Abreu/Hunter outfield
I’m pretty sure that contributed to a few balls finding a place to land.
JeffJoiner - January 3, 2012
Bring back Saundo!
Teixeira Who? - January 2, 2012
I also wouldn't mind seeing the Colonel back.
halofolife - January 2, 2012
Bell will probably end up being Saundo.
gitchogritchoffmypetis - January 2, 2012
If Kuroda or Oswalt can be had cheap, I say make a run at them.
If not, i’m cool with sticking with Williams or even Bell.
halofolife - January 2, 2012
We do not need another starting pitcher
We have three very good options for #5 starter in Williams, Richards, and Bell. A #5 starter is not expected to win 20 games or to compete with the best pitchers on your team; a #5 starter is a stopgap who, hopefully, can log innings and give the team a chance to win some games. Last year, we effectively used four #5 starters over the course of the season — Pineiro (24 starts, 5.13 ERA); Palmer (3 starts, 5.74 ERA); Richards (3 starts, 5.79 ERA); and Kazmir (1 start, 27.00 ERA). Although all of them performed badly or worse, our team still led the league in ERA. Williams, Richards, or Bell, or some combination of them, should outperform what our #5 starters did last season.
This leads to my next point. While the organization might lack depth in the minors due to past trades, the Angels have a surplus (not a lack) of good starting pitchers who can fill out the major league roster. As noted, we led the league in ERA last year with Weaver, Haren, Santana, Chatwood/Williams, and Pineiro/Palmer/Richards/Kazmir. This year, with the addition of Wilson, who has been significantly better than Santana and on par with Haren, and with the departures of Chatwood, Pineiro, and Kazmir, our pitching staff is even more talented than the one that we had last season. Even if there is an injury to Haren, Wilson, or Santana, we should have a comparable staff to the one that we had last year. This is not a situation that warrants spending additional money on a starting pitcher.
Brody - January 2, 2012
There is no place for common sense here, son
Best you be moving along, now.
George Kaplan - January 2, 2012
How is this not rec'd?
5thStarter - January 2, 2012
rec'd
I think it’s funny when people say that our rotation goes off a cliff after the #4. Many teams’ rotations go off the cliff after #3 or even #2
The rotation is set. improve the bullpen.
the king of CERA - January 2, 2012
+1
marshgr - January 2, 2012
Brody makes the point already, sort of....
But most teams would be pretty glad if they had our top four and any nameless pile of #5 prospects with Bells repertoire and non-fright inducing track record, or Williams and Richards stuff.
I voted for Williams because, if you remove a couple bogus, dead arm looking relief appearances he had last year his stats look great, he’s got awesome movement on his pitches and good make up. Goes after guys. I think he’s going to be a very good pitcher.
If he were a shiny new prospect instead of a reclamation project we’d all be looking forward to his first full season.
And he’s got soul. And he’s super bad.
gitchogritchoffmypetis - January 2, 2012
And he wears a pink glove.
Halowitz - January 3, 2012 via mobile
You had me at he's got soul. Not too mention being super bad.
But, if we can solidify our SP with another FA that’s relatively cheap, I say go for it. Might as well improve our strength.
halofolife - January 3, 2012
My biggest problem with this argument is ...
that one defines roles for #5 starter throughout the season.
I understand that there is a limited amount of funds, players available for a roster, etc. But why would you, purposefully, choose an inferior player if you can get a better one. One need not settle for a #5 starter, just like when we signed Wilson we weren’t thinking, ‘Good, finally a decent #4 starter.’ He is a pitcher, and a good one. I want a pitcher, and a good one, out there every day.
I don’t want days when we have a ‘#5’ pitcher against someone elses ace. With our first 4 pitchers, I feel they can all compete, day in and day out, with every ace out there. That is what I would like to see in our other pitcher. I think that is more important than an additional arm in the bullpen, and I think we have the resources to improve there as well.
Do we ‘need’ to? Of course not. Do we have an amazing, enviable rotation as is? Of course.
Could we be better? Always. And I think this is the place to discuss it. My feeling is that starting pitching is a place we could improve. More than the bullpen. More than at 3B. There are decent, or sometimes stellar, options out there (or rumored to be out there) in FA and via trade for starting pitching. I see less options for the other things people discuss, and this is a place we could improve.
Williams, Richards and Bell aren’t it, for me, imho.
matthiasstephan - January 3, 2012
I love this thinking: always try to improve, never settle
JeffJoiner - January 3, 2012
Call me crazy, a dreamer perhaps....
But I think Jerome “Suger Bear” Williams will be as good or better for us this year than Oswalt or most of the other available pitchers who will cost us a lot more money or prospects. It could be fun to pick 4 or 5 available pitchers and see how he does compared to them this year.
I’m betting he’s gonna have very little pressure on him at that #5 spot, and he’ll get “lifted up” by his rotation mates as they all start trying to NOT be the guy who has the bad start, one up each other, etc.
Plus Soul/Super Bad/Pink Glove.
gitchogritchoffmypetis - January 3, 2012
Maybe, but we already have Jerome under contract ...
so, bringing in Oswalt lets them compete for that spot. Let them figure out who is going to be better, and we have options if either Oswalt’s back can’t hack it or Jerome doesn’t perform to last years level.
I don’t buy that Richards or Bell is ready for that role, at least not long term.
matthiasstephan - January 4, 2012
Oh. Another point for Jerome.
“Maybe, but we already have Jerome under contract … "
We signed him already. He’s a big splash.
gitchogritchoffmypetis - January 4, 2012
Let's sign Fielder
And have him compete with Pujols to play first base.
Brody - January 4, 2012
How about this???
We don’t need to do anything to this team. We are done with Pujols, Wilson and Iannetta. I will take Bell, Williams, or Richards in the 5 spot!
If we do anything, let’s add a reliever. We really don’t need anything else.
marshgr - January 2, 2012
Except that we need to replace Vernon Wells with Mike Trout
mattwelch - January 3, 2012
This makes too much sense
You are spot on with this post. The rest of what we need to do involves figuring out which players to play and what their roles are. We need to figure out what to do with out DH/OF logjam of Trumbo, Morales, Wells, Bourjos, Trout, Hunter, Abreu. We need to figure out all of the bullpen roles and what to do with Conger. My assumption is that the budget is already to its breaking point and the return on any pitcher we pay for is going to fall far short of the investment. I’m OK with paying more for parking for Albert Pujols. I’m not OK with paying more for parking for Ryan Madson.
jco - January 3, 2012
The log jam will be sussed out in March.
gitchogritchoffmypetis - January 3, 2012
You have to give it to Williams.
His performance at the end of the season gave the team a much needed lift. There is no way he should not be given a chance to start at the beginning of the season. It is his job to lose. If he cannot get it done then the other options provided should be considered.
Angelsrthebest101 - January 2, 2012
4 man rotation
DAD OF VLAD - January 2, 2012
1971 Baltimore Orioles
Mike Cuellar 38 starts, 20-9
Jim Palmer 37 starts, 20-9
Pat Dobson 38 starts, 20-8
Dave McNally 30 starts, 21-5
The remaining 16 starts were shared among 3 other pitchers (McNally missed 6-7 starts between mid-July and mid-August). In essence, there was no 5th starter. That didn’t seem to hold the Orioles back.
George Kaplan - January 2, 2012
Please Be Aware.
The MLBPA is now watching your house and monitoring your communications. Please do not think things that piss them off. Thank you.
gitchogritchoffmypetis - January 2, 2012
Williams
He earned first crack it last year.
JeffJoiner - January 2, 2012 via mobile
Tough call, should the response to your first crack comment be a Ron Washington or Mike Napoli joke?
snowhor - January 3, 2012
In 10 games, Williams was 4-0 with an ERA of 3.68.
A fluke? Maybe. But for now, he’s earned a spot in the rotation.
angelslogic - January 2, 2012
GET MADSON.
SWOOP IN AND NAB KURODA (If he wanted to stay with the Dodgers, there is a good chance he wouldn’t mind playing for the Halos).
WIN WORLD SERIES.
LATHER, RINSE, REPEAT.
Chzburger Jones - January 2, 2012
AND BRINZ THE DH TO THE NL1111!!!!
Balls and Strikes - January 2, 2012
ANGELS
MADSON CAN’T CLOSER FOR SHIT!!!!!! WE PAY HIM MILLIONMNS? F**K NO0!!!! BUT WALDEN CATN CLOSER FOR ASS!!!!! BROXTON AND KUO ARE THE REAL CLOSER! GENUINE DEVELOPMENT BY DODGERES!!!!!!!!
F**K NO FOR MADISONS SHIT!!!!! AND BRGIN TETH DH TO TEH NL!!!!!!!!
the king of CERA - January 2, 2012
Working on Poster of the year?
eyespy - January 2, 2012
SPC7, dude. SPC7.
red floyd - January 3, 2012
Poor Sprid.
I always confuse his name with SPC7 even though their content is remarkably unsimilar.
snowhor - January 3, 2012
I like to turn the crazy dial up to 11 every now and then
the king of CERA - January 4, 2012
Fernando Rodney for #5
See we had it all mixed up. Fernando Rodney actually is bad with stress. If we put him in at the #5P spot, in a less stressful atmosphere. He would give us 7 solid inning is dramatic
baseball. Pull him off the Free-Agent list and give him one more chance.
- This message has been brought to you by the No Respect Rodney Fan Club
Creamsicle Power - January 2, 2012
Are you from Eastern Europe?
gitchogritchoffmypetis - January 2, 2012
no
From Svaldbard! A viking in the true sense, but like the Angels; and we’ve started our own little “No respect Rodney Fan Club here.” Revenues from this effort bring us enough food to get by in the cold winter months, so please push for Rodney’s return in So.CA! – Thanks!
Creamsicle Power - January 8, 2012
Spam spam spam spam, spam spam spam spam!!!
red floyd - January 8, 2012
I vote for whoever earns it in ST
2pintsofbooze - January 2, 2012
that is like peeking at the naswers
on the back of trivial pursuit card!
Rev Halofan - January 2, 2012
I also like this approach
Williams, Bell, and Richards show up to Spring Training with an open competition. Winner gets the 5 spot, one guy heads to the bullpen for long relief duty and the other goes to Salt Lake to stay stretched out.
I love internal competition. It sets a competitive mood from day one of Spring Training.
JeffJoiner - January 3, 2012
Isn't that partially how Jeff Mathis earned the top catcher spot every year?
Judging him on a strong spring (along with that strong postseason) while ignoring everything you know about him from the rest of his professional career.
snowhor - January 3, 2012
so in this case I'm not really sure what you're trying to say
Williams should get the job because he pitched good at the end of last season, even if he looks like dog shit in ST?
2pintsofbooze - January 3, 2012
No, I'm looking at it from the other perspective, a player overperforming.
If one of these guys is lights out in spring, I wouldn’t overvalue that over everything thing else we know about him. The team should have an idea on where these three rank beforehand based on what we’d expect them to do and then use spring performances to judge whether or not to deviate from that ranking.
Obviously, if a player is pitching like dog karmis, then yeah, dump that guy.
snowhor - January 3, 2012
if a guy is lights out in ST then I'd say he earned the right to go every 5th day
since the #5 spot is not solidified with anyone yet. If the guy ends up faltering a month into the season then you switch him with whoever they have pitching well. The problem with the Mathis stuff is that when it became clear his hitting in ST was more of a fluke than realized talent, he was never siphoned out for better performers. I doubt that would happen with a SP though (see Kazmir, Piniero).
2pintsofbooze - January 3, 2012
I think we should get Mark Buehrle for our #5. I bet we could sign him for, oh... say.. 4/58
red floyd - January 3, 2012
But, that would mean we'd be out on Wilson.
5thStarter - January 3, 2012
Having Williams As A Solid Option As 5th Starter
is a plus, but the other options dont’ excite me much anymore. Richards I’m all for, but I’d rather have 2 young promising prospects in addition to Richard rather than continuing to hope Bell finally gets it. Or, the Halos could add on a 5th starter on a 1 year deal and make Williams a solid long man in the pen.
RyÅn Krol - January 3, 2012
Keep Jerome in the rotation
he was shit out of the pen
the king of CERA - January 4, 2012
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