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Wednesday Halolinks: More Home Runs For Pujols, More Hope For Wells

Vernon Wells gives a thumbs-up before spinning his wheels again.

Tom Pennington - Getty Images for TMS

Vernon Wells gives a thumbs-up before spinning his wheels again.

Pujols power Halolinks:

Star-divide

  • As Rev noted in this FanShot, there's a new Angels blog out there providing some good content. In their latest posting, Halos Daily looks at Vernon Wells; What If Vernon Wells Were A Free Agent? - Halos Daily. Although I somewhat disagree with the conclusion (I think Wells would get more in free agency...a little less than Carlos Beltran's 2yr/$26M deal with St. Louis), the post does give us some hope for a Wells bounce-back, "Players typically stay close to their career averages in BABIP. Wells, for example, has a .282 BABIP over the course of his career. He’s finished eight of his ten seasons with a BABIP within 20 points of that career average. In 2011, Wells had a gruesome .218 BABIP, which clearly contributed to his terrible .218/.248/.412 slash line. This is a sign that we should expect Wells to bounce back significantly in 2012."
  • One good sign that your post is good is when it gets picked up by another site. Halos Daily's Pujols piece was the basis for Sam Miller's recent posting: Albert Pujols and Angel Stadium and home runs - The Orange County Register. As noted in both articles, we might see more Pujols pokes leaving the field, "Albert Pujols in 2011 hit "a remarkable 16 balls that were either doubles or flyouts that would have been home runs if they were hit at Angel Stadium." Pujols had 37 HR last season, and if my 3rd grade math is correct,we may be watching the first Angels' hitter to blast more than 50 home runs in a season in 2012.
  • Oh, and then there's the four-letter network guy who pilfers your post without giving you the proper credit: Will Angel Stadium boost Albert Pujols' power? - ESPN Los Angeles. Mark Saxon mentions Sam's article, but fails to recognize the genesis of the conversation at Halos Daily. Anyway, there is this, "According to ESPN's Park Factors under the "Resources" tab, Busch Stadium was one of only five major-league stadiums where it was harder to hit a home run than Angel Stadium."

Poll
How much would Vernon Wells sign for if he were a free agent in 2012?
Less than $5,000,000
156 votes
Between $5M and $8M
222 votes
Between $8M and $10M
99 votes
Over $10M
23 votes

500 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs  |  82 comments

Comments

i would love this

Pujols would bring so much more interest, hype, and coverage to our team if he were to hit 50+hrs as a first year angel. I think marketing would have a ball with this and there would be so many more people jumping on our bandwagon lol..

maybe he will hit 62 and then everyone can try and figure out how to handle the guy to break maris' record without "help"
i remember when i jumped on the bandwagon

In 1998 when I went to my first game!

Hell I invite all the people to join our crazy little bandwagon! I have room!

I would bet $5,000 that Pujols won't hit 50 home runs

A career high, at age 32, switching to the marine layer & road games in Safeco/Mausoleum during an era of offensive decline? Not happening. Though I will be dropping a major Pujols-projection bomb here one of these weeks….

The V-Mart and Crawford injuries give me renewed hope that JeDi will be able to trade Wells after all! I would submit that his bad BABIP was due to hitting 500 pop-ups….

FWIW....

Trout DID hit two bombs in a single night game at Safeco last year. If our beloved Trout can muscle a few out, I imagine Pujols won’t have much trouble.

Forget the marine layer. Have you ever spent a summer in STL?

It’s usually 90/90 (temp/humidity). Even with the marine layer, it never gets that humid here.

I'm surprised, Red

You must remember from rocket school that moisture makes the air less dense. The marine layer kills baseballs mainly because it’s colder than surface air.

All I know is that STL was unlivable in the summers.
No argument there

I was in Montgomery for a week last summer, and I thought my skin would boil.

And there is no point in putting on make-up,

because it just slides off your face.

Wells' BABIP

‘Zactly! Vernon’s extremely low 2011 BABIP isn’t about him being unlucky at “hitting them where they ain’t.” It’s about really shitty contact – more likely related to an inability to read and handle the pitches he was seeing.

Brandon Wood’s 2010 BABIP of .191 wasn’t an indication that he was “unlucky” with where the ball went off the bat. Neither was Wells’ .218 last year.

Shhhhhhhhhh!

Dombrowski may be reading.

Safeco

Is a pretty big park but would those dimensions be that much different then that of lets say Milwaukee? If he can put them out there consistently then he can put them out anywhere consistently

Dude

Brewer’s have a notorious pitchers park.

With this roster and Hunter's penchant of getting two outs with one swing

I can see Pujols leading the AL in intentional walks by a large, large margin this year. Morales would be the only reasonable protection for him if he was healthy and at 09 production levels but that is a pipe dream at this point.

Chili Davis is responsible

for all the terrorism in the world, the colorization of old movies, tax hikes, Justin beibers music, all of Katherine Heigls movies, He helps Liz Hickok make dumb art out of Jello, He is responsible for giving your kids nightmares, and their cavities.

He is the killer of children’s dreams.

OK, that came out of left field
I have posted here a few times about how he was with kids asking for autographs while he was a player

lets just say I hold a grudge

But yes it was out of left field
Terrorism? I think you may be right...

This is the program from the first Angels game I attended

I met Chili last summer and he laughed when I told him I still have this. He was a really cool guy and told me he did not have one until the Angels found a few that summer and sent him a couple.

I love looking through old Halo Magazine covers online...some are awesome, some are hilarious and some are unintentionally hilarious. Like Dante Bichette in a tank top, lifting weights.

It’s funny how there’s now way in this day and age that the Chili Davis one would ever get printed. It’d probably look something like this, instead:

Agreed, there's no way a player holds dynamite on a cover today

It’s funny getting older. I never noticed all the Marlboro ads in stadiums when I was a kid, but now they are the first thing I see when watching old games or highlights.

that dawg

has got some girth

Wait why would he have anything to say about Candlestick?

Did the As play there at the time?

Uh, his first 7 years with the Giants?
not a 49ers fan?
More likely

it was his deflated batting lines from playing all those years in a dump by the bay. Though I’d love to get my hands on that mag to read the article.

Oh those

which led to my birth. Chronoligically. The two are otherwise unrelated.

What the hell!!

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.cgi?id=davisch01&t=p&year=1993

http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/CAL/CAL199306170.shtml

What the hell what the the hell?! What was going on that day?

Vaguely remember

1993 was in some ways the rebuilding year that opened this era of Halos baseball. With a lot of young players on that roster, blow outs like this were bound to happen. Chili Dawg actually had a pretty decent line in that game!

That may be the case

but how did it fall all the way to the DH to finish the game? Were there not as many bullpen arms in those days? Or were they just screwing around?

It used to happen more often

Probably even more so before the DH was around. Canseco famously blew out his arm pitching in relief. I remember Wade Boggs during his twilight years threw a scoreless inning against the Halos using only a knuckler (striking out Todd Greene swinging!).

Managers are waaay too conservative now to do that sort of thing. It still happens from time to time in blow outs, but you won’t ever see a core regular stepping on the mound. We’d see maybe Abreu, for example. Or Bobby Wilson, who probably at least has a decent arm.

I have felt so alone

Thought I was the only one who CAN. NOT. STAND. Katherine Heigl’s movies.

The movies? Her? Or both?
She'll do.

Her boobs distract me from the fact that Sarah Jessica Parker and Julia Roberts are still limping than sad old faces onto a movie set as we speak. I still use Erin Brokovich (and the fact that it won an Oscar) as a test of my Buddha like calm. I can get through about 32 minutes now before I violently shut it off.

Heigl’s pretty much the mark of a crap film though.

I don't know enough about her to say with any integrity that I dislike her.

But integrity is for suckers. Both.

I would kill to see Albert hit 50! I haven’t been a fan of baseball for many years, only since 2006, so it’d be the 3rd time I seen 30+ homers hit by an Angels player. Vlad 2006 Kendrys 2009?

I just read that article…and I’m suspicious of that tool he used now. It’s off so I’m going back to just hoping for 30 homers.

He will get to play at least 3 games each in NYY, BOS, CWS and 9-10 in Texas

We’ve already seen what he thinks of the latter. No reason he can’t have a few mutli-HR games at each stop.

Getting out of my element here but regarding Wells didn't he have the worst LD rate in baseball?

Doesn’t that poke a hole in the “His BABIP shows he should rebound” theory?

Thanks in advance for answering

Yes he did, the worst LD rate and the worst BABIP

The two obviously go hand in hand and correlate with his crazy bad season. But both, in a sense were outliers and off his career marks. Which were 18% LD rate (somewhat skewed by two strong rookie and sophmore seasons), and is probably more in the 16-18% LD rate in the and .282 BABIP.

He has precedent for putting up a very low LD rate, in 2009 Wells posted a 14.6% LD rate which qualified as one of the worst 20 or so of the last 10 years. So he has been putting up weaker contact recently than ever before.

Will he rebound from it? BABIP, historically does tend to normalize to some degree. As long as he isn’t in terminal skill decline. In projecting Wells going forward its best to probably
aknowledge the weak LD%, declining BB% et al and notice it contributed to his terrible 2011. How useful it will be for 2012? Quite useful, but I personally would expect a rebound. He’s had a long career and career rates do matter somewhat. He’s 33, so I wouldn’t expect a ‘career year’ but I think he could stabalize.

In short, I wouldn’t say it totally blows a hole in the bounceback theory, but rather adds to the overall picture. We should be wary and thankful we have Trout if Vernon Wells decides to tank and stay crappy.

Thanks

Gut feeling I think Vernon has a decent year.

I'd guess Dale Murphy, Andruw Jones et al had bad LD%s and BABIPs when they fell off a cliff

Sometimes those numbers probably reflect a sharp and permanent erosion of skills.

Yes, certainly

The Angels should definitely hedge their bets as there is no certainty in a bounceback. Terminal skill decline could be on the cards for Wells, we will get a clearer picture early next season. AS I mentioned, we are damn lucky to have Trout waiting to get the call! Makes me less nervous/worried about requiring a Wells bounceback.

As of 9:05 am, there are 31 votes for "Between $8M and $10M."

Was Tony Reagins allowed to vote 31 times?

That's just a bit less than Beltran

Wells does not have chronic knee issues and still has a reputation as a good defender. I am 100% confident he would receive a 2/16 to 2/20 offer on the open market. Look at all the teams jumping for Cuddyer and Kubel.

Even after last season?

He would have to settle for a one year deal and it would be a miracle if he got more than $5 million. He flat out stopped hitting last year and that’s scary.

There are plenty of guys who can catch fly balls and manage to not make outs at the plate 75% of the time. Vernon would really have to prove last year was a fluke before anyone ever thinks about offering him anything significant ever again.

I'm not saying I would pay it

But somebody in baseball would. The Indians just missed out on Beltran, the White Sox need another bat, and St. Louis signed an injury risk for more. Even the Padres are paying $8mill or Quentin. Baltimore or a return to Toronto could still be options.

I’m not saying it’s right, but it would probably happen.

Andruw Jones hit .222/.311/.413 in 07

and the dodgers still gave him like 2/$36

I'd rather have Cuddyer or Kubel
Seriously, there are a ton of votes for over $5m.

Why would any team do that?

Consider that the dodgers just re-signed Juan Rivera, who out-performed Vernon Wells last year, for $4.5m. Also, consider that VW’s numbers last year are consistent with his road numbers from his last year in Toronto. What we’ve seen from VW is what we should roughly expect going forward.

I’m with you, 72% of this vote is sheer lunacy. A team would be better off buying $5m worth of lottery tickets over giving $5m to VW for the privilege of him creating outs for them night after night.

Absolutely

It would take a dumb team to offer even $5 million. Who the hell would outbid them? Far too many no-name players with the same skill set who can be had for nothing.

Today is the Yu Darvish to the Rangers day of judgement

I hope he signs for a crazy high amount of money… (thus committing over 100 million to a Japanese pitcher and stopping their pursuit of Fielder…)

100+ mill to a Japanese pitcher.

I don’t care if he has “comparatively little mileage on his arm”. That’s right up there with getting into a land war in Asia and betting a Sicilian when death is on the line.

Thanks for the laugh...

Love that movie and love that line! I laughed out loud!

Carlos Pena

is going to get 8+ Million.

Vernon Wells is like an outfield version of Pena, more or less. Teams would “value” his defense and he would probably get 2/23ish on the open market with ease.

Also does anyone else have this ominous feeling that Yu Darvish and Prince Fielder will sign with the Rangers within the next five days and the shit talking from LSB will commence. I can see the “Rangers counter the Pujols/Wilson signings with a deadly combo of their own” type bullshittery.

Well Darvish only has about 1 hour.....

However everything I’m reading sounds pretty confident the contract will get done

The posting fee really makes this interesting

Not because the Rangers have any incentive to sign him based on the fee, but the Japan club who receives the money pressures the players to sign. Darvish is young and could easily dominate the JPL another year and get just as large of a posting fee and a six year contract from the Yankees or whoever else frees up money this year, but it wont happen.

Whatever sense of honor and loyalty that lingers in the sport for our Asian compadres will make this get done pretty much no matter what.

yeah.

I wonder what the Nippan response would be if Darvish didn’t sign. Apparently the posting fee alone is enough to pay their entire payroll. So in effect they could double their payroll if he leaves.

I think both sides would be trying to fool themselves into thinking the other team made a huge mistake, but we got the good guys.

I must say, if you’re trying to counter the Angels Pujols/Wilson signing, then Fielder/Darvish is the way to do it.

I tend to wait until the game is played before letting the shit talking commence, so as not to look like a complete know nothing.

I cannot objectively say the Angels win or lose

its honestly a crap shoot with so many variables that its way way too hard to make a clear cut decision on who “wins” this offseason based on these four moves.

However in the short term I do think Pujols is the biggest domestic marketing piece while Darvish does land Arlington some sweet signs that Ranger’s fans will undoubtedly never be able to read.

Fielder would be pretty huge too. Darvish would be similar to Wilson in that baseball dorks would know him, the average person probably not.

I had many people ask me if I was excited about Pujols, and when I said “Yeah, and CJ Wilson, too” they’d say stuff like “Oh yeah, heard about him too. Is he any good?” Darvish will just be That Guy That Looks Like A Lesbian Olympic Skier until he proves himself on the mound.

I am curious to see

how that all goes over in Texas. Sterotypes aside, Texans do not really embrace feminine asian dudes with lots of love and care. It might make literally no difference, but whatever, I still think there will be a shorter leash if he does poorly due to the cultural differences. And by cultural differences I mean Ranger fans are rednecks.

Winning can bridge any gap. Even a redneck, racial one.

That’s all it’d take.

I agree

if he does well it does not matter if he makes out with the catcher, topless, after a CGSO.

However I would be interested to see the reaction if YuVish starts the season 0-4 with a 6.32 ERA and a 2 k/BB ratio.

Another notch on Mike Nappoli's glove
A cross between Milk, Letters fro Iwojima, and Remember the Titans.

Lovely.

Are you kidding?

When Carlos Pena hits .220, he does it with an OPS over .800. Wells can’t even dream of being that useful with his terrible plate discipline. If anyone offered him more than Juan Rivera’s $4 million salary, after the season he just had, I’d say they were crazy.

I do not disagree

My point was (poorly executed as it may be) was that front offices look at things like home run numbers and poorly conceived defensive value when signing players.

That with the Boras aspect I see Pena getting easily 8million. If Wells had Boras I could see him getting at least the same, if not more based on whatever 112 page binder Boras releases on him.

There are a few signs that front offices are coming around

Big doofs who hit home runs and do nothing else aren’t nearly as sexy as they were 10-15 years ago. At least Pena is recognized for getting on base and playing his position competently. Vernon has already aged out of his natural position and has no other skill besides Trying The Hardest Of Anyone To Yank The Ball Right Down The Left-Field Line. I think his sucktitude is pretty obvious to just about everyone, except maybe him.

Is that good for the player who will be making the 2nd most in the majors next year?
now's the time to sell high on vernon

since he predicted his .300 30HR season on twitter

Vernon wells will hit .362/.43/.901

With 41 Homeruns and 132 RBI’s

he'd finally be worth it!

and 33 stolen bases.

God. can you imagine what Tim Lincecum will get in free agency if he gets 21.5M in Arb?

I know he’s just a hair less awesome. Still, just want to say it one more time. I love you Jared Weaver.

$22M a year + a bale of Maui wowie every off day?

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