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Jered Weaver Wants You To Know That Pitching Wins Are Stupid

Final Score: White Sox 4, Angels 3

Keith Law brought ESPN into the 1980s the other day (progressive thinking by Bristol standards) with this column explaining why pitching wins are dumb. It's nothing you didn't know already, and nothing that wasn't fully on display this afternoon during what eventually proved to be Jered Weaver's 12th loss of the season. Weaver was as overpowering as a pitcher could be, striking out nine White Sox (the second least strikeouting-est offense in MLB) while walking zero. But Jered Weaver could only score three runs off Tony Pena, Chicago's starter-by-committee. Jered Weaver also misplayed a blooper in left field, which ultimately cost two runs. So clearly Jered Weaver deserved to lose this game.

Okay, so maybe Bobby Abreu actually misplayed Juan Pierre's bloop triple. The Angels' offense, third worst in the AL by one measure, is clearly responsible too, especially with only four experienced hitters in the lineup. Weaver was charged with three earned runs in 6 2/3 innings on an accumulation of seeing-eye grounders and shallow outfield flares. A fourth unearned run also scored after Andrew Romine dropped a pop-up, and the subtle nicks and scratches were just too injurious for the frail Angels lineup to overcome. The loss completed a home sweep at the hands of the mediocre White Sox, who have now beaten the Angels seven times in a row.

Now some fun facts. Hank Conger went 2-for-2 with a double and walk. He has now reached base more in his 24 career plate appearances than Jeff Mathis has since since August 25. He has as many hits (5), more extra-base hits (2), and more walks (3). He also threw out a runner trying to steal second, which is just as many as Mathis has in the last month. Also, Brandon Wood took an oh-fer and is now batting .149. That hasn't been done by a batter with over 230 plate appearances since Ray Oyler hit .135 in 1967 (related fun fact: Oyler also hit .083 for the Angels in 1970). If Wood collects just 10 more plate appearances without raising his average substantially, he can surpass Oyler's mark for the worst batting average since this was the #1 hit single in America.

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Poll
Least fun fact of the day
Bobby Abreu (-10.1 UZR/150)
134 votes
Mark Trumbo (0-4, 3 K's, 4 LOB)
84 votes
The moronic practice of crediting pitchers with "wins" and "losses"
114 votes

332 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs  |  45 comments

Comments

Couldn't find the game thread today (until 4:00 pm after the game was over).

Frustrating.

Can someone please remind me what UZR means?
Ultimate Zone Rating

Roundabout explanation:

They cut the baseball field up into tons of little zones, and then record every single play for every position player within those zones, and quantify the likelihood of a player making a play in a given zone based on recent MLB history. So they come up with a statistical picture of what plays each position player tends to make or not make (based on factors like: was it a fly ball or a line drive? etc). Since tendencies change from season to season, it’s a more objective and accurate picture of how a player performs in a given year relative to all other players at his position in the MLB.

Far more objective than an individual scorekeeper saying “hey, looks like Bobby should of caught that — well, I’ll cut him some slack…this time” — which is essentially what errors and fielding percentage are reducible to.

Thanks!

Now I feel much less ignorant.

You are really good at the roundabout explanations.

I can’t remember the specifics of the last time you ’splained stuff, but it was helpful then, too. Thanks! I, too, feel much less ignorant.

I cut the below wording from the internet

As many of you already know, UZR is an advanced defensive metric that uses play-by-play data recorded by Baseball Info Solutions (BIS) to estimate each fielder’s defensive contribution in theoretical runs above or below an average fielder at his position in that player’s league and year. Thus, a SS with a UZR of zero is exactly average as compared to a SS in the same year and in the same league. If his UZR is plus, he is above average, and if it is minus, he is below average.

“Brandon Wood took an oh-fer and is now batting .149. That hasn’t been done by a batter with over 230 plate appearances since Ray Oyler hit .135 in 1967

I question the sanity of those who still believe in Brandon Wood's "upside"

There have been almost 21,000 instances of a player exceeding 250 plate appearances since 1911. The fact that Brandon Wood is on the verge of recording the lowest batting average of any of them really says something to me. Especially since this time period partially overlaps with the dead-ball era, when players pretty routinely hit under .200.

I beat out 21,000 others mom!

You really do have a humorous image for every occasion
Pictures really can be worth 1000 words so I love them...

…plus you really don’t want me throwing out too many words. I leave that for others ;)

Like Oscar Gamble
It's pretty disheartening.
Upside is relative...

I think Wood can string together a .200 season next year. Based on what? I’m not sure.. but I find it hard to believe anybody (who flashed talent in the minors) can be this shitty… twice in a row.

Of course, I would not be surprised if he hits .050 next year.

Brandon needs to dabble in steroids or HGH… I think a good, healthy cycle in the offseason would increase that bat speed a tad, and give him the confidence he seems to lack.

I think Wood can string together a .200 season next year.

I got it. That was freakin’ FUNNY!

Rank these players in order of who you wish would disappear the most:

Abreu, Matsui, Rivera, Rodney

For me it used to be:

1) Rodney
2) Matsui
3) Rivera
4) Abreu

But with Abreu’s effort today (and the many similar games the preceded it), and his increasing propensity for backwards K’s, contrasted with Matsui’s decent 2nd half, I think I may have to rearrange my list:

1) Rodney
2) Abreu
3) Rivera
4) Matsui

Bear in mind, these are ALL players I want to get rid of. It’s still a tough call though because Abreu can still steal some bags, unlike Rivera or Matsui.

Invalid question

You left off Wood.

Give it a month or two and that order may change.

We have to remember that Matsui really only turned it on when the Angels’ chances of securing an offseason berth were lower than 10%, and he’ll be yet another year older in 2011.

If the Angels are to spend again on a dedicated DH who cannot play the field — and they decide not to turn to an in-house option like Abreu or Napoli — then they should really not settle for halfway solutions: pay the money, and go for a true slugger in the vein of Dunn or Konerko.

It’s one thing to say “Matsui earned his money” — sure, he did. But a $6M slugger playing to expectations isn’t doing all that much. A DH that cannot get on base at a .380 clip OR hit at least 25-30 HRs out of the park is pretty much a wasted slot. A DH should compensate with his bat for the fact that he can’t contribute value with his glove.

I agree

I want (1) Konerko or (2) Dunn and not Matsui. Plus, we could have one of those guys AND have Naps in the lineup every night if we convert either Morales or Naps into a 3B. I know it may make the left side weak defensively, but I think we’d all agree that the offensive upgrade is more needed. I really hope Sosh has at least considered the idea.

Of course, if we get Crawford, we can have Abreu DH. We’d have a strong OF all around. Then I’d still like to move Morales or Naps to 3B. That would give us another chip for trading too – either Callaspo, Izturis, or Kendrick could be dealt (along with a catcher and Rivera).

Abreu is "serviceable" as a DH...

if his cleats so much as touch a single blade of grass next year, I’ll be miffed.

DANG it was hot at that game.

I’m so glad that my seats were in the shade cause it was just plan ol’ hot. 101 on the field at one point.

Weaver had a great game – stuff happens – it has all season.
He K’d 9 (now 2 ahead of Felix)
He made an awesome comeback catch and got a standing O for it.
We also give him a standing O when he left the game. Thanks Weaver for an amazing season of pitching – sorry you didn’t get enough run support.

Conger made a throw to 2nd that didn’t go into center field.

Abreu made an awesome throw to Trumbo that was an out – GREAT THROW.

Romine got his first ML hit. Congrats.

Angels baseball gave away some great prizes – I won nothing though.

I have 2 more games left to go to and then the long winter begins. 154 days AND counting.

Yep, definitely.

Agreed on everything,.

That throw from left to double up Quentin was amazing.

I think it was Rios who was doubled up
Yep, he was pinchrunning for Quentin who surprisingly didn't fly out to center.
An amazingly bad call by the ump,

but we’ll take it.

I think today's game just proved again why Conger and Bourjos...

…are very different prospects than Trumbo or Wood. Their skill sets are largely indifferent to extreme park factors like those at Salt Lake and Rancho.

Both Peter and Hank are showing me with each plate appearance — in completely different ways — why I should be happy to wait for their offensive games to emerge. Conger clearly has a clue at the plate. He continually makes adjustments, and has a lucid sense of the strikezone. Even though Bourjos’ BA doesn’t reflect it yet, he’s taking a lot more pitches, and finding a way to get on, often by forcing errors. And two walks in the past two games!

Trumbo, on the other hand, looks just as clueless as Wood did in each of his callups. But even worse. Mid-game, Trumbo — a fastball hitter — was facing a pitcher pumping him a steady diet of fastballs in the zone, and he struck out. That’s a bad, bad sign.

I would say
let Trumbo get more consecutive starts to see what he’s capable of. He might have just lost his swing sitting on the bench for over 2 weeks. I do agree with Hank and Peter. Hank is more patient at the plate, and Boujos is starting to see more pitches. Trumbo is still blocked by Kendry so there’s no sense of urgency with him, but Bourjos definitely needs to be in CF and I guess Hank’s blocked by sub-Mendoza Mathis as well.

Yeah, I feel uncharitable criticizing him so harshly.

Scioscia did sit him unreasonably long — and he was on a very hot streak in the PCL.

But he really does not look good. Conger was in the same boat as Trumbo, and he looked intriguing right out of the gate.

Someone said Trumbo may be converted to OF

I heard he’ll try it out in winter ball. No link, sorry. My brother just mentioned that he read it somewhere. Maybe here. If Trumbo can figure out how to hit MLB pitching, and we don’t sign Crawford, Konerko, or Dunn, he’d be a cheap option to infuse some power in the lineup and get Abreu out of LF.

Ya, it's only his first handful of ABs, so I'm still hopeful that Trumbo can turn it around, but he looks completely lost.

I’ve been really impressed by Bourjos and Conger lately too.

In fact if the ESPN box score is right, Bourjos saw 31 pitches today.

This is why Trumbo has always been an uninspiring fringe prospect

He could still be a semi-useful major leaguer eventually, and there’s no reason to believe he will duplicate Wood’s drop off the continental shelf. But I really do kind of wish the Angels had stuck with Trumbo as a pitcher. The organization has a much better track record with pitchers than power hitters.

Wasn't Trumbo mostly looked at as a pitcher heading into the draft? Kind of interesting that the Angels looked at him as a power hitter.

Also, I mentioned that I thought they should have kept Trumbo a pitcher on the other Angels blog a while ago. That idea was pretty much laughed off and they called Trumbo a “Right-handed Ryan Howard”

As I recall, that is exactly how it went down

I seem to remember some quotes from Trumbo suggesting that even he was surprised that the Angels wanted him as a position player. This might have been why he ended up signing instead of going to college: he wanted to hit, but only the Angels were willing to let him. I can’t remember precisely. He was an 18th rounder, so he’s been very successful to get as far as he has. But he was reported to have a power arm, which unfortunately doesn’t have as much use at first base as it does on mound.

That's my recollection as well.

He came to the park and hit a few out during batting practice, and so the Angels decided he was a hitter. Absolutely the WRONG way to evaluate a hitter.

It’s the baseball equivalent of watching a guy stand around the 3-point line sinking shots in an empty gym and deciding to make him your shooting guard.

Pete's got quick hands through the zone.

A long swing like Wood’s or Trumbo’s is always going to look more foolish…until they connect and send the ball 420 feet. Don’t get me wrong. I agree with you that Hank and Bourjos appear more confident at the plate, but I’m just saying that their types of swings lend to the difference in appearance.

Prospects at SLC

Is it the air there at 4,229 feet above sea level? Is it just so thin that breaking balls don’t break as well? or is it that long fly balls end up in the seats instead of the pocket of a glove?

I’ve noticed that Morales and Conger seem to be taking similar approaches at SLC, and while they did very well there they didn’t just crush home-runs (a la Wood and Trumbo). They both hit lots of doubles and a decent, but not overwhelming, number of homers. Morales had a better avg. his first go round at .320 to .300, but King Congers OBP at .385 to Morales’ .359 shows his patience at the plate. Both had reasonable strikeout rates: 15% for Conger and 16% for Morales, whereas Wood and Trumbo’s rates were both way above theirs: 27% and 24% respectively. Trumbo seemed to do well in both hitter friendly parks and just above avg everywhere else. It seems the prospects that develop like Wood in SLC are much riskier than those that follow Morales’ lead. I see Conger as a great prospect who looks like he is getting his feet wet to join the team in 2011 as a regular and Trumbo as a guy who looks plain lost.

Oh and...

Wood’s amazing season at Arkansas that made me a believer also allowed me to overlook his 33% K-rate there.

Dear Mike Scioscia

Please explain to the team that not only is it permitted to score runs in innings other than the first, it is actually encouraged.

Thank you,

red floyd

They were confused, they thought Santana was pitching at first. And then they saw Weaver walk onto the mound and were like "Wait, he's pitching today? Shit, we scored all those runs too!"

And then they agreed to not score anymore.

Rodney gets POTG for not blowing this one.
PGP Question for 9/27

I assume this is a mistake since the Angels SP can’t pitch in the bottom of an inning. Typo?!?

sorry blast 21 dave

just noticed you beat me to the pregame conundrum after I posted.

It's cool

No worries

REV ALERT! Pre game question alert

Rev, the pregame question is as follows:
“YES or NO: Will tonight’s Angels starting pitcher throw the final pitch in the bottom of the 6th inning?”

Since we’re at home the Angel pitcher throws in the top of the sixth. Since I have never known you to do a trick question, I thought maybe I should say something.

Thanks

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