Martinez Mesa and Amarista tied for "eighth most promising prospect" in yesterday's poll, an outcome that brings to the fore two key questions in player valuation:
Ceiling versus floor: is a player who possesses some of the best tools in their class (here it's Martinez Mesa's fastball/slider combo), but who has near zero polish, more valuable than a guy with less physical projection, but who's worlds closer to having MLB ready skills? What's more important: a player's upside? Or his current ability to use the tools he has to impact the game?
Second, how do you feel about valuing pitchers versus hitters?
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In general Pitchers over Hitters
A good young pitcher is, i think, more difficult to find considering all of the attrition that goes on with pitchers in the minors versus being able to nurture and find guys to hit .300+ in the minors.
However, in our system, I think you have to value Amarista about FMM. Our system is completely empty of hitting prospects (Trout and to a lesser extent Conger aside), which boosts Amarista’s value to our system comparatively.
Furthermore, unlike with Richards, who I still think can put it together, I’m much more hesitant of believing that FMM can develop his control to a point where he’ll be a useful starter. That’s not to say he can’t become a great reliever, but if you see him more as a reliever than a starter, his value as a prospect clearly drops below Amarista’s at this point.
In all of baseball if, a big if, he figures out how to throw strikes at a consistent clip. Until then give me Amarista every day if the week. But I have a sift spot for small guys who perform at a high level.
This is just going on what I’ve read, because I haven’t seen either guy play. Amarista is a lot closer to the big leagues: I see him beginning 2011 at SLC, at which point he’s just an Izturis strained hamstring away from being called up. I guess that makes him more promising, from the perspective that right now, he is much more likely to play in the big leagues.
It' such a shame, Amarista deserved to be so much higher on this list....
How could we not admire his potential. Forget about the fact that he’s 5’6 for a second. The kid has NEVER hit below .300 in his career. He’s a 21 year old, and ripping AA apart. His career BB/K ratio is 134/160, so he walks nearly as much as he K’s. The only other player in our system that does that is Hank Conger. He’s a defensive whiz at 2B and can play the OF as well.
If the kid was 5’10 he’d be hailed as the next great middle infielder, alas, he’s short. I have Amarista down to be the 2B version of Erick Aybar, except with more patience. By that I mean we’ll get good defense, around a .300 BA, and some SB.
FMM on the other hand, while he could be the next Ervin Santana, he still only plays once every 5 days, not everyday like Amarista. FMM is also currently sidelined and is in A ball. FMM makes my top 10, but not my top 8.
In general Pitchers over Hitters
A good young pitcher is, i think, more difficult to find considering all of the attrition that goes on with pitchers in the minors versus being able to nurture and find guys to hit .300+ in the minors.
However, in our system, I think you have to value Amarista about FMM. Our system is completely empty of hitting prospects (Trout and to a lesser extent Conger aside), which boosts Amarista’s value to our system comparatively.
Furthermore, unlike with Richards, who I still think can put it together, I’m much more hesitant of believing that FMM can develop his control to a point where he’ll be a useful starter. That’s not to say he can’t become a great reliever, but if you see him more as a reliever than a starter, his value as a prospect clearly drops below Amarista’s at this point.
HaloFanInDC - August 12, 2010
IMO FMM will be the #2 prospect and a top 10
In all of baseball if, a big if, he figures out how to throw strikes at a consistent clip. Until then give me Amarista every day if the week. But I have a sift spot for small guys who perform at a high level.
angelskid2210 - August 12, 2010 via mobile
Amarista
This is just going on what I’ve read, because I haven’t seen either guy play. Amarista is a lot closer to the big leagues: I see him beginning 2011 at SLC, at which point he’s just an Izturis strained hamstring away from being called up. I guess that makes him more promising, from the perspective that right now, he is much more likely to play in the big leagues.
jjackflash - August 12, 2010
It' such a shame, Amarista deserved to be so much higher on this list....
How could we not admire his potential. Forget about the fact that he’s 5’6 for a second. The kid has NEVER hit below .300 in his career. He’s a 21 year old, and ripping AA apart. His career BB/K ratio is 134/160, so he walks nearly as much as he K’s. The only other player in our system that does that is Hank Conger. He’s a defensive whiz at 2B and can play the OF as well.
If the kid was 5’10 he’d be hailed as the next great middle infielder, alas, he’s short. I have Amarista down to be the 2B version of Erick Aybar, except with more patience. By that I mean we’ll get good defense, around a .300 BA, and some SB.
FMM on the other hand, while he could be the next Ervin Santana, he still only plays once every 5 days, not everyday like Amarista. FMM is also currently sidelined and is in A ball. FMM makes my top 10, but not my top 8.
Halowood - August 12, 2010
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