Tony Reagins is such a tease. First he exasperates the fanbase with a pointless trade for Alberto Callaspo, then he pulls off this stunner, both in the same weekend. This is the trade he meant to do last August when he acquired Scott Kazmir: buy low on a starting pitcher, sell high on a couple of promising prospects. Obviously the little detail about Kazmir being broken wrecked that plan, but Dan Haren's tough season is merely a statistical fluctuation. Forget 2010 for the moment and consider the near future, the middle-term. We can't know what the Angels gave up in Pat Corbin and (presumably) Tyler Skaggs for another five years, but we can talk about the next two seasons.
First, the necessary statistical argument. Dan Haren has exactly one strikeout for each of the 141 innings he's pitched this season, but only 29 unintentional walks. He also induces groundballs more frequently than most pitchers who miss bats. It all adds up to 3.38 xFIP for a 29 year-old pitcher. That is a sabermetric boner right there. His inflated ERA results from an unfortunate 13.9% HR/FB rate and a laughable .350 BABIP. Both of those are unsustainably high, and will surely drop in the next two months. There's your Dave Cameron paragraph.
Overall, Dan Haren gives the Angels an effective and durable front-rotation arm with a below-market salary through 2013, should they choose to exercise his option. The first four names in next year's rotation look deadly already: Haren, Weaver, Santana, Pineiro. Thanks for that, Ken Rosental. That is obviously important, but here's why I'm really encouraged by the deal.
We've seen that Tony Reagins won't hesitate to fix organizational mistakes (see: Matthews, Gary, Jr., cross-reference: Hunter, Torii). That is the luxury of a high payroll. What I think Reagins and the rest of the front office understand is that free-agent mega-pitchers are always bad investments. The price tag for high-profile starting pitching--Johan Santana, CC Sabathia, Barry Zito, etc.--is set so ridiculously high by the East Coast Evil Empires (and the occasional dumbass like Brian Sabean) that there is virtually no chance of recouping salary with actual production.
With seven-year contracts worth more than $20 million per season floating around out there, a top-shelf starter would pretty much have to perform at his peak every year for the rest of his life to earn his keep. That is just not a reasonable thing to expect from a pitcher. If you've been around awhile, you might remember Mike Hampton and Kevin Brown. Pitchers get hurt all the time, and they lose velocity and overall effectiveness with age. To top it off, ERA is such a finicky bitch that sometimes you don't get the player you thought you were getting.
For instance, Barry Zito was a disaster from the start, yet he's still going to make $20 million in 2013. Sure CC is a solid pitcher now, but do you want to be paying $23 million for that fatass after he turns 35? Some Mets fans are terrified to see former K-master Johan Santana starting to pitch more like Jeremy Bonderman now that he's 31, and he still has $60 million left on his deal. These days even second-rate contracts for second-rate guys like AJ Burnett and (ahem) John Lackey are looking like albatrosses fairly early on.
The way baseball economics works right now, teams are falling over themselves to sign their young players to extensions before they reach free agency. That's pretty much the only way to obtain talented players in their primes without TARP funding, and it's especially true for pitching. The scramble is so intense that even big fat buckets of blah like Joe Blanton are cashing in.
The Angels made such a move with Ervin Santana after his spectacular 2008 season. His elbow promptly exploded. So it goes. With Scott Kazmir they tried to acquire another contract that was below-market when it was signed. Kazmir has since decided to work out with Oliver Perez. So it goes. Now with Haren they've given the finger to Cliff Lee and the rest of the free-agent pitching market. Not that it was any good this year to begin with. Let someone else pay for Cliff Lee's buffet dinners and rehab assignments.
My initial impression of Tony Reagins was way off. The first thing he did as the Angels' general manager was sign a check for about three times what I thought Torii Hunter was worth. Since then he's been very shrewd. He waits out the market and buys low. Sometimes his shrewdness has bit him in the ass (remember when we all thought that Brian Fuentes was a decent signing?). Sometimes he has tried too hard (he probably thought he was getting a bargain on a closer in Fernando Rodney). Sometimes he just seems confused (why do we need another second baseman again?). But at least I think I see where he's going. He'd rather try and fail at being Michael Corleone than succeed at being Fredo.
That's not the worst way to be. He's set up the rotation nicely for 2011 and 2012. The Rangers can have 2010. I'm going to enjoy watching Justin Smoak safely buried in Seattle for the next few years while Cliff Lee clutters the Yankee disabled list. But shrewdness has its limitations. One day I'd like to see Tony Reagins take that blank check Arte Moreno gave him and buy something shiny (but not overpriced) instead of using it to paper over his own mistakes.
1 recs | 70 comments
The million dollar question
Was it worth it? Only time will tell. Actually, I would prefer this trade over the Callaspo trade, but what do I know.
I’m guessing this puts us at about 125 million for payrol next year after arb and or multiyear contracts for our young infield and draft picks. This Haren guy will probably cost us about double next year for what Saundy would have got in Arbs.
Of course if Fuentes doesn’t get his 55 games finished, then he can be booted. Don’t know if that is a good Idea. We be weak in the relief and not much money to spend.
vladtheimpaler - July 26, 2010
arb for young infield and pitcher = Weaver
vladtheimpaler - July 26, 2010
was this a joke?
Ya, he’ll cost 12 million. CC Sabathia, Roy Halladay and Johan Santana all make over 20 million next season. So will Cliff Lee.
We got a guy who can pitch like an ace who is signed to a below-market value contract for his age 29-33 seasons (IE: presumably before the age he’ll break down)
“This Haren guy”….wtf?
Saunders is the most inconsistent member of our pitching staff (Kazmir is consistently bad) and would be a bad investment for 6+ million a year for a 5th starter.
And we have Shields, Fuentes(hopefully), Matsui, Saunders all off the books next year and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them try to move Rivera. That counters the added payroll in Haren.
ihearhowie2.0 - July 26, 2010
forgot Speier!
another 5.5 million that we wont be paying next year.
payroll will come in right around what it did this year. Abreu probably moves to DH, bourjos probably becomes a cheap outfielder if Crawford doesn’t sign.
2011 shaping up to be biigggggggg for the halos!
ihearhowie2.0 - July 26, 2010
Joke?
I like to joke, but this was very sincere.
When you ask for trades, review the budget.
vladtheimpaler - July 27, 2010
This sucks.
Yes, it does.
I’m sick over the Kaz fiasco, despite most Angel fans thinking we would be world champs for decades to come after that trade (yes, I’m being dramatic).
This one better not blow up or… Hate seeing him go now even more.
:(
RedFog - July 26, 2010
BTW, I don't mean the trade sucks, just seeing Saundo go...
I’ll reserve the right to use 20/20 hindsight in judging the trade ;P
RedFog - July 26, 2010
You can hear his interview :
HERE
(from a fanpost)
Downing Rules - July 26, 2010
Well, at least this thread made me laugh ;)
Here.
RedFog - July 26, 2010
I have not clicked on any Joe links (sad, etc.)
Because I can’t take the hurt. So sorry guys, still can’t do it. I never want to here his reaction to this trade.
vladtheimpaler - July 26, 2010
hear here.
Downing Rules - July 26, 2010
Still being sarcastic I see
Don’t ever change. Or not.
vladtheimpaler - July 26, 2010
hear
I think I’m a bit depressed over all the recent trade stuff.
vladtheimpaler - July 26, 2010
It's just baseball dude
Upgrading pitchers should make you happy..not emotional. Joe Saunders will be getting paid more money next year to play where he lives in the NL where he’ll probably fare better. I’m sure you care more than he does.
ihearhowie2.0 - July 26, 2010
You and I both.
I just can’t listen to it.
Teixeira Who? - July 26, 2010
I'm with you
I can’t listen to Joe sobbing. I feel for the guy. I’ll trust you other guys that it’s a moving interview and be sad without being devastated.
Gorbachav5 - July 26, 2010
It was funny seeing them whine, except for the idiot who said Joe sucks.
That annoyed me.
opiejeanne - July 26, 2010
This is probably the biggest theft I can remember happening on the trade market.
Well done, TR. That was a truly epic win.
misterjonez - July 26, 2010
Fuck you, you narcissistic prick
vladtheimpaler - July 26, 2010
Wait, what?
Clutch - July 26, 2010
Did I miss something with this guy?
Is it sarcasm or is he genuinely offended that I came on to compliment your FO’s most recent impact move?
misterjonez - July 26, 2010
And to be clear, I'm not trolling.
It just seemed like a good opportunity for an honest tip-of-the-cap to a division rival’s fanbase. We’ve all gotta cheer for something. Personally I don’t mind when the entire division gets better, it makes everything more interesting.
misterjonez - July 26, 2010
Yeah no I didn't take it as insulting
I thought it was a good gesture and bad reaction from vti—though I can see how your comment could be interpreted as a slam on Saunders, it certainly didn’t warrent that string of expletives!
Clutch - July 26, 2010
Ok, I see the potential to be upset, and he was obviously emotional over the loss of Joe.
Saunders is fine, kind of like a wannabe Jarrod Washburn, and those players are so valuable when they display consistent #3/#4 stuff. You can lock their production into your projections and move on to the other, more volatile roster spots.
Still, you guys upgraded a ~#4 starter with consistency for a ~#2/#3 starter with the same kind of consistency, and actually longer club control. And from what I can see, the other pieces you guys gave up were simply ‘spare parts’ that look good on the surface, but don’t seem to have any kind of plus-plus tools to project from.
Simply put, you guys put a seriously big hurt on the SP trade market with that piece of brilliance by TR. Well done.
misterjonez - July 26, 2010
Ah, you sweet man
As we dwindle into the night, let us welcome the condescending little trolls that come here to feast on our demise. Yes, they will act as the caretaker of those who have fallen, but in reallity they are enjoying those who are suffering from their same fate.
Ah, you sweet, sweet, man.
vladtheimpaler - July 27, 2010
I think we have become so used to mean rival fans around here,
that we expect negativity via sarcasm and insults. What you wrote could have been construed as a diss to Saundo. I didn’t read it that way, but I can see how someone might. I’m stoked to get Haren, but it’s really tough to see “a family member” (as Torii put it) go, and in such an emotional way.
cath619 - July 26, 2010
Cath, I nominate you for all "trol" introductory welcomings
Raaddad - July 26, 2010
My degree of arm-openness
depends entirely on what they write. :) I don’t suffer idiots gladly.
cath619 - July 26, 2010
Got it.
Thanks for the explanation. Everyone becomes testy when favorite players move unexpectedly (or even when it is expected, like with our A-Rod or your Lackey).
You guys just got so much better, it’s scary. Weaver’s pitching like an ace, and you just locked the rest of the rotation down with Haren. Yikes.
misterjonez - July 26, 2010
Yes, thank you
vladtheimpaler - July 27, 2010
It's all good,
yeah? Let’s all hug and make up. Go Saundo! Get well soon, Haren!
cath619 - July 27, 2010
a hungry man with a gun etc etc
and a mariners fan? and posting at this moment?
Narciissistic prick. What other interpretation could I possibly make.
vladtheimpaler - July 27, 2010
Wow a little testy??
angelskid2210 - July 26, 2010
What the hell is wrong with you?
Gorbachav5 - July 26, 2010
Not just women suffer from PMS...
RedFog - July 26, 2010
That was an awful response
Slyintine - July 26, 2010
Nah
Emotional, I will grant you.
vladtheimpaler - July 27, 2010
Also, see Clutch comment
Same goes for you.
I might be depressed, but I’m still fighting.
vladtheimpaler - July 27, 2010
i like the trade
jon heyman tweeted this morning that while it seems lopsided, the dbacks are really trying to shed payroll, and most teams werent’ going to pay what haren is owed. i’ve liked haren for a long time and i’m glad to see him in angel red for a few seasons. i’m a big fan of saundo and hope he does well in arizona, but this improves our team immediately.
i do think kaz can come back at some point and be a #4 or #5 starter, at least. i haven’t given up on him yet.
Kernel - July 26, 2010
He continues to make moves to improve the club
Every GM makes mistakes. The problem has been over the past few weeks, is that fans have assumed those mistakes meant he was a bad GM. There are two types of analysis that should be done: results and process.
Results
Process
So, results wise, a real mixed bad. But, if you live in real life, and not in a computer game, then you know that this will always be the case. You win some, you lose some. If you can point to a GM that doesn’t lose in trades, or the free agent market, then unicorns and elves really do exist.
Reagins process however, has fundamentally been sound.
In 2008: Hunter was a big free agent capture at a position of need (Matthews Jr at CF was not the answer). We paid for it, but he was worth it. Scot Shields was worth re-signing for his performance and loyalty to date. The midseason trade was vital as Kotchman had seemingly not displayed enough to the management (they have been vindicated in their judgement) and we wanted a big bat for the playoffs.
In 2009: K-Rod’s departure left a hole we hoped to fill with Fuentes. Not a stupid move, he was one of the best options available, and it gave us a valuable lefty and closer in the bullpen. Oliver was the needed situational lefty and he also was valuable. The Santana and Rivera deals were great and team friendly. Abreu was a blessing. Morales taking over Kotchman and Teixeira was a huge success. And Kazmir was added to bolster our post season challenge. He helped during the season, but failed in the playoffs. Nevertheless, the intent to make us better (Kazmir, risky but with a history of success, was the only significant SP outside Cliff Lee going to the Phillies moving in a trade i believe) was observable.
In 2010: A mixed bag, and it shows in the standings. Rodney has been adequate, Matsui has been disappointing, and Abreu has not performed as he did in ‘09. Both were good moves at the time though, as we had doubts over Vlad (due to injuries and declining performance). Likewise we did not re-sign Figgins and Lackey, instead going for Pineiro (success!) and Wood (unlike Morales the previous year, failure). To try and block the hole left by Wood, we have added Callaspo at no real cost. Likewise, Kazmir’s shoddy play in 2010 has led to the addition of a future ace, potentially, in Dan Haren. One of the games very best pitchers.
His moves have been understandable for the most part. There have been no glaring craziness, like the Gary Matthews Jr signing, despite people wanting to paint Kazmir as such (he has definitely been disappointing, and it was noticable in his statistical profile in 2009 that he could continue to decline. We played our hand, and it has backfired so far). The decision making has been solid and more often than not, the results have been good.
If he has a weakness, it is paying open market value for relievers instead of developing cheap alternatives through the system (although Jepsen, Bulger, Kohn, K-Rod v2.0 could be changing this).
But overall, he has presided over management continuity, and Reagins has been active in terms of trades, signings etc. He has been party to a two time division champion and we’re still in the race (despite the doom and gloom) for the AL West in 2010, and with his move yesterday, primed to challenge for the AL West in 2011 and beyond.
Strong Leadership people!
TheQuestforMerlin - July 26, 2010
Yeah... I didn't expect it to be this long...
Sorry ladies and gents?!
TheQuestforMerlin - July 26, 2010
I think you meant "mixed bag".
Mixed bad sounds like a Freudian slip.
opiejeanne - July 26, 2010
Hoisted by my own petard
Damn you subconscious. Damn you Freud.
TheQuestforMerlin - July 26, 2010
about vladdy
dude had a great first three months. you can’ts ay how his entire season is going to shake out, naturally, but his july has been dreadful. stan dreadful.
Jul 1, 2010 to Jul 25 – .200 .273 .313 .585
Yikes.
Kernel - July 26, 2010
Kind of like half of Matsui's season.
He is slumping, meh, everyone slumps. I’ll take his 20/75 and a July slump thank you.
Wally's World - July 26, 2010
Nice analysis...
…spot on with the relief pitching – our bullpen has been a dog’s dinner since TR took over – he needs to rethink his approach here because it’s been pretty woeful.
The Limey - July 26, 2010
The moves NOT made
I think Reagins’ 2009 offseason was pretty sound, aside from one key decision:
Signing Rodney to the overpaid, albeit market price, deal while declining to offer arbitraition to Darren Oliver. This looked bad at the time, not just in hindsight. All of the analysis suggested that unless DO completely went in the tank, he’d be just as valuable as Rodney at half the price, even if he accepted arbitration.
Good post, though. I would quibble with Abreu’s contract being an “albatross,” simply because he only has one year left on it. Even if he tanks, it’s not a ton of money or time to have to eat.
Gorbachav5 - July 26, 2010
I thought us not going to arb with DO was a mutual agreement
Something about how he wanted to go back to Texas, and how he wanted to be a FA to recoup some of the money he got scammed out of.
linkbruin - July 26, 2010
He got scammed out of money? He shouldn’t have tried to buy 13 CDs for the price of 1. Those things are always scams.
Otherwise, I’m not sure what you’re referring to about being scammed out of money. If it was a mutual agreement, it was a bad one on the part of Reagins.
Gorbachav5 - July 26, 2010
Tony?
(but good post highlighting his resum…moves)
RedFog - July 26, 2010
Underwhelmed
Seems like this is one of the least of all the options that could make us 8 games better then the Rangers over the next 61. There’s got to be more coming, right? Please?
Match Day 5 - July 26, 2010
There's no trade that will make us 8 games better for the rest of the year.
This trade is more about ‘11 & ’12 and the illusion for the fans that we’re going for it this year.
If anything is going to turn this season around, players on the current roster are going to have to magically improve.
snowhor - July 26, 2010 via mobile
I don't think it has to be magic
There are quite a few players on the roster who are underperforming relative to their career numbers. If even a few of those bounce back and Haren can be a couple wins better than Saunders, it could at least be a race.
I don’t think it will be enough, but I don’t think it would take a miracle either.
Gorbachav5 - July 26, 2010
what part of signed for 3 years do people not understand?
we will have a full season with a top 4 of Weaver-Haren-Santana-Pineiro next year.
If Kazmir learns to just even be mediocre, there’s no rotation in the division that even sniffs being that good.
Lee wont be a Ranger next year, Vlad wont be this good, they’ll eventually have to extend and invent in Hamilton and Cruz.
Seattle looks lost, Oakland is Oakland…..this trade was all about storming back in 2011-2012
ihearhowie2.0 - July 26, 2010
We need offense
We need hits, we need power, we need aggression. Last time I looked, scoring runs was the only way to win games.
Match Day 5 - July 26, 2010
i don't see why
our rotation next year is weaver-haren-santana-pineiro-kaz/bell/whatever
I don’t know about you, but Haren seems like a big upgrade over Saundo, especially ina playoff series. And I love Joe Saunders.
We didn’t give up too much so long as we just lose Skaggs, and it gives us the ability to hound after Texas some. It’s an outside shot at the playoffs this year, but it gives us a much scarier rotation over the next two for a pitcher in his prime who has been better than his record and ERA indicate this year.
Thanks for that awesome start over the weekend, Joe.
Kernel - July 26, 2010
also...
is it just me, or does an angels quality start seemt o be the kiss of trade this past week?
Kernel - July 26, 2010
Angels get a big bat!
Lost in most of the reporting on Dan Haren, the Angels get one of the better bats on the trade market. Dan Haren was batting .364 with a slugging percentage over .500.
Let’s see this lineup when he makes his start:
SS Aybar
3B Izturis
RF Abreu
CF Hunter
DH Matsui (for catcher Mathis)
1B Napoli
2B Kendrick
P Haren
LF Bourjos
Try that one out and this division might not be over yet.
RallyMonkey5 - July 26, 2010
An added benefit
Is that Mathis can keep his catcher gear on all game, instead of rushing to put it back on after another strikeout. Maybe the extra relaxation will help him actually throw out a baserunner one of these days.
RallyMonkey5 - July 26, 2010
Yea
I mean Haren’s hitting better then Mathis for God’s sakes. It’s not like Mathis is dishing out HRs every other day as well. With that lineup, no way we can lose.
phoenix15 - July 26, 2010
That would be absolutely bloody hilarious...
…I would laugh and laugh
The Limey - July 26, 2010
I can't wait
For the 12th inning of a 1-run game against Texas in September. Mathis starts to go out to the on-deck circle…
Scioscia: Hey Jeff, come on back.
Mathis: What’s going on, coach?
Sosh: I’m pulling you for a pinch hitter.
Mathis: But Wilson’s the only one left on the bench, and I’m at least as good a hitter as he is!
Sosh: No, I’m hitting Haren for you.
Mathis: He’s a pitcher!
Sosh: Have you watched yourself hit lately? Go sit down.
Gorbachav5 - July 26, 2010
Sosh: And then go watch the rest of the game on a new flatscreen plasma from Howard's!
Clutch - July 26, 2010
lmaooooooooo!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Angels_48 - July 26, 2010
sosh would never say this to mathis.
but it is funny as hell.
IE Angel - July 26, 2010
I really like this trade
Maybe not for this year, but we have him until 2013 and he will be a studly 1-2 punch with Weaver. Although, this could give the Angels a little spark one that shows them TR is trying to win. Maybe just maybe they pull it out. Hideki Sucksui is becoming HRsui again and well lets just take the damn thing!
angelskid2210 - July 26, 2010
Best trade I can remember us making for the long-term
Kazmir I was very leery of when it happened, Teixeira was so short-lived it’s hard to fall in love with it.
Saunders was a good solider but his best days were definitely behind him and it’s actually kind of surprising his flukey numbers still had value despite him sort of reverting to the mean this season
ihearhowie2.0 - July 26, 2010
Only 1 thing that concerns me about Haren
He is not a good second half pitcher. He opens the season well, but blows up every August and is not so good in Sept either.
Come playoff time, this is when we really need a stud SP and history has shown Haren has a career 3.29 era pre-All star and 4.27 post-All Star.
To add to that, the splits have been even worse the last few years, with almost a full 2 run gap.
2009 Pre- 2.01, Post 4.62
2008 2.72, 4.18
2007 2.30, 4.15
Granted, he had been awesome in the first half, and that might balance out our slow starts, but this is not what you want to see from your ace come playoff time. Especially not this year when we really need him.
I hope this is the year he turns around those splits, but so far, he has not with a 7.36 era in 2 starts. Small sample size I know, but that was against the Padres and Mets, 2 teams not known for ripping the cover off the ball, ranking 21st and 23rd in total runs scored this season.
That being said, I love this trade, but 2 things have to happen now. 1) Haren needs to turn it up a notch, starting today, 2) Angels need to get off their ass and sign their top 2 draft picks to start replacing some of the arms we’ve traded away.
LosAngel - July 26, 2010
Well
Let’s see if a change of scenery can help him with his inconsistency issues.
Slyintine - July 26, 2010
I wouldn't worry too much about Haren swooning this season late.
He isn’t going to change the landscape of the division this season in the way that Cliff Lee or even Roy Oswalt would have. But what he is going to do, is change the landscape dramatically for next year. Lee if almost certain to leave Texas for the east coast somewhere after the season, and Haren is locked in to your rotation for the next three years.
Everyone still wants the ‘big bat,’ and since you kept Trout it’s entirely possible for you to get one of the premier pieces.
misterjonez - July 26, 2010
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