Jed Jacobsohn - Getty Images
Angels are 33 - 30 ... Here is who they have left:
Tough Teams:
DODGERS - 6 Games (3 down the street, 3 in Anaheim)
ROCKIES - 3 Games (3 here)
RANGERS - 17 Games (3 here, 4 there, 3 here, 3 here, 4 there)
YANKEES - 2 Games (2 there)
RED SOX - 6 Games (3 here, 3 there)
TIGERS - 3 Games (3 there)
BLUE JAYS - 3 Games (3 here)
TWINS - 3 Games (3 there)
RAYS - 6 Games (3 here, 3 there)
Easy Teams:
BREWERS - 3 Games (3 here)
CUBS - 3 Games (3 there)
ROYALS - 6 Games (3 here, 3 here)
WHITE SOX - 7 Games (4 there, 3 here)
ATHLETICS - 9 Games (3 there, 3 there, 3 here)
MARINERS - 10 Games (4 here, 3 there, 3 here)
ORIOLES - 6 Games (3 there, 3 here)
INDIANS - 6 Games (3 here, 3 there)
If we play at our current .524 winning percentage with every team but Texas and we go 11-6 against Texas, we end up with 87 wins. Is that enough? If you forgive the team its tough early season strength of schedule and bump up our .524 to .540 against the easy teams, adding the (admittedly hopeful) 11-6 head to head with Texas... well, voila, we are a 90 win team. Does that take the AL West?
What is your scenario?
0 recs | 33 comments
Here you go Rev
I’ll make this as short as possible, let’s pretend for a moment, the Angels perform only as they are expected from here on out, none of the usual Angels late summer magic under Scioscia.
On 3 game home series, we take 2 out of 3 which is expected. On 3 game away series we take 1 out 3, which is expected. All 4 game series, regardless of home or away, we split. None of that is extraordinary is it? That would result in 84 wins.
Now let’s apply the same principles to the remainder of the Texas and Oakland schedules. Texas ends up with 82 wins. Oakland ends up with 81 wins. So basically, the Angels could do nothing more than what is expected and take this division.
We all know however, that the Angels are better than this. I’d bet if you examine the Angels record after June 1st for the last 5 years, it would be considerably better than .500. Now let’s throw in simple logic.
Who here realistically expects Abreu to struggle as much as he has in the early going? How about Juan Rivera who always heats up? Who expects Izturis to be an automatic out as it has been for the majority of the season with 3B under Wood’s reign? Who here expects Howie Kendrick to only bat ,260? Does anyone expect Aybar will bat .250 to finish the year? Will Scott Kazmir continue to have an ERA over 6? How about Joe Saunders? How about Jepson and Bulger, our two best relievers from last year?
Chances are, this team as a whole will only continue to get better, 90 wins looks more likely than 85. Now examine Texas. Does anyone believe Tommy Hunter will magically have an ERA under 4 coming off injury and inexperience? Colby Lewis’ ERA rose 2 full runs between April and May, and he’s their best starter. CJ Wilson’s ERA went up 3 runs after a sensational April, and he’s their 2nd best starter. Nelson Cruz is hitting .327 and is a career .262 hitter, anyone expect him to sustain that?
Folks, chances are, we’ve already seen the best of the A’s and certainly the Rangers. If those teams improved, it would be nothing short of miraculous. If they both end up above .500, it would surprise me. I say the Angels will win this division and will so by more than 5 games. That’s not being optimistic, merely realistic.
Halowood - June 11, 2010
n i c e !
Rev Halofan - June 11, 2010
Not overly statistical, but I'm slowly learning to become a competent HHer.
Halowood - June 11, 2010
that’s exactly why Kaz needs to step up, so the Angels wouldn’t need to go out and get a SP. The team also needs one more BP arm and that’s realistic, but will it happen? Who the funk knows…
SenorChuckles - June 11, 2010
Excellent writeup, but i’m still nervous to see the Angels go up against playoff teams and get embarrassed as they did the first month of the season.
Dontbatvlad4th - June 11, 2010
Well the Angels were one of the worst teams to start the season.
Being embarrassed should be expected. Slowly but surely, by September, this is a playoff team. As such, I doubt the Angels will be swept or humiliated by the best.
The best teams in the AL really are the Rays, Yankees and Twins. The second tier teams include the Red Sox and Angels. Then the third tier which only exists for .500 teams that threaten but don’t have what it takes consists of the Rangers, A’s, Blue Jays and Tigers.
The East Coast media will have you believe the Angels and Rangers are in the same class and that the Red Sox and Yankees alone are the best with the pesky Rays threatening and make no mention of the Twins. They’ll twist the truth for their own fan base, which is fine.
Halowood - June 11, 2010
I'm convinced
Rally Manatee - June 11, 2010
A horrible thought...
On my way home, I was at a stop light and decided to check the end of the day scores for the MLB. I saw that TEXAS annihilated the M’s again. Then I thought, “Damn, that Texas team has a scary lineup!” Then a second later, I thought, “Oh Hell, Vlad is in the middle of the lineup!” And I felt really weird afterwards. Like suddenly, over 1/3 of the way through the season, the realization that Vlad was ACTUALLY a Texas Ranger HIT me…like a ton of bricks. It got me down…really down. I was bummed about it. And I sunk further. Because then I thought, what if…and its a big unlikely “IF” but what if, the Rangers won it all…………
…..
….
…
WITH VLAD.
And them im tripping. And Im like, "This is a unlikely scenario but its a possible scenario nonetheless. And they ARE overdue, after all. And Im like, “If they win it ALL…with VLAD, does that basically erase everything Vlad ever did as an Angel????” Does he then NOT go in the HALL as an Angel….does he then forever, in the history of baseball go down, known as a Ranger who finally won a ring as a TEXAS RANGER???"
Then I thought…..who the fuck does Vlad talk to on the Rangers? With the diverse Angels squad, he had so many spanish-speaking companions but the Rangers????
Guys, Im bummed about Vlad. As much as I want to, I dont like Matsui….I love this team but I fear the worse for the next 99….
BryanHarvey'sMoustache - June 11, 2010
Vlads going to play 3-4 more years in Texas...
He’s gunna win a Ring and retire Tax free on a huge farm with all 100 of his kids (Dominican style) . And on the day he’s inducted into the HOF…Ryans’ gunna escort him up the steps, both wearing a T on their caps.
trAdition
Funke5ive - June 11, 2010
um...thanks for being positive...
BryanHarvey'sMoustache - June 11, 2010
wait...
we’re not gonna win a ring with frandsen and ryan?
clover_black - June 11, 2010
What do Frandsen and Ryan have to do with Vlad?
~MMP~ - June 11, 2010
theyre getting this 2010 angel team a ring, broseph.
clover_black - June 11, 2010
The way I view Matsui...
I know I would have rather seen the money go to the likes of Oliver when I first heard of Matsui, and Napoli DH, BUT, where you will thank Matsui over Vlad is come playoff time, Matsui will certainly come through late in the game.
P.S. Yeah yeah yeah, Vlad got those bloop hits against Boston, I get it, but that doesn’t excuse prior playoff performances.
Dontbatvlad4th - June 11, 2010
x
Nellie Cruz, Frank Francisco, Elvis Andrus, Neftali Feliz, Joaquin Arias, Andres Blanco, Max Ramirez
willamos2 - June 11, 2010
is blanco even on the 25 man roster?
Francisco and Feliz are pitchers….so while sitting on the bench, hes got you know, three dudes and a bunch of born-again hicks.
BryanHarvey'sMoustache - June 11, 2010
I think the Rev's scenario
Is good enough. If we take 11 out of 17 from the Rangers they aren’t winning 87, Oakland is unlikely in any case, and Seattle is done.
But if we lose 11 of 17 against Texas, but make it up by winning more against everyone else, 87 probably won’t be enough.
I think the fate of the AL west hinges on those 17 games against the Rangers, and everything else is for show.
RallyMonkey5 - June 11, 2010 via mobile
11 out of 17?
Dont count on it.
BryanHarvey'sMoustache - June 11, 2010
13?
Downing Rules - June 16, 2010
We still have 17 more games against Texas? I thought you played division rivals for 18 games total?
firebird81 - June 11, 2010
19 in our division
and we’ve played 2
Rally Manatee - June 11, 2010
Pretty Simple
Beat Texas!!!
However Texas owns the Halos
Prove me wrong Angels
Dono Romantico - June 11, 2010
See the entire last decade
Even last year, they couldn’t do much of anything to us in the 2nd half.
Commander_Nate - June 11, 2010
I've got family in TX.
I’ve already told them if we have to lend the division to another team for a season, I’d prefer to lend it to TX. The M’s are bizarre. They have never won it all, and yet they have always had an air of arrogance. The A’s had their glory days already, and it hasn’t been long enough for them to have more yet. Plus, if they win the division with the style of ball they are playing right now (The Bloop Brothers rather than The Bash Brothers), I just don’t even know if I can continue being a baseball fan. Texas is a humble, gritty team that has seemingly renounced their PED ways, and has been slowly building themselves into a legitimate threat. They are a worthy opponent this season.
But I still believe W6G.
Rally Manatee - June 11, 2010
W6G doesn't apply anymore...
they signed Daniel Cabrera!!!
SenorChuckles - June 11, 2010
That's what happens when you suck for years
You get a lot of high draft picks and can’t afford to by players like A-Roid. It forces you to grow your players. Thus they have a good Latin American system and minor league system.
They are vastly over rated though. I can’t remember how many times I heard Chris Davis and Justin Smoak were amazing and special. Throw Mark Trumbo into their lineup and I promise you he either just as good as those guys or outperforms them. And those guys are the jewels of that system.
I’d rather have the realistic view that Bourjos and Trumbo have the tools but not the refinement to be successful major leaguers right now. Leaving them in AAA isn’t exciting, but it’s the right move. But if it’s Texas they buy into the garbage the media feeds them about how great their prospects are, and they promote them because they really don’t know, and then they flounder in the bigs.
Halowood - June 11, 2010
"Get the f*** off our field!"
Humility at it’s finest.
Commander_Nate - June 11, 2010
The Rangers have mostly wasted a huge early strength of schedule advantage
All other things being equal, they should be 5 to 6 games ahead at this point purely on schedule advantages. They’ll have yet more SOS advantages this month courtesy of a girlish interleague schedule (6 against the Astros, 3 each against the Pirates, Brewers and Marlins).
But do not fear, the schedule tables begin to turn in August and September – just in time to fully mesh with Texas’ annual wilt.
LAASurfin - June 11, 2010
Good post.
Halowood - June 11, 2010
I say they win 92 games...........
and win the division by 4.
norcaliangelsfan - June 11, 2010
I'm guessing 89 games and win the division by 6.
Halowood - June 11, 2010
I like Halowood's analysis
but i just think we’ll win in excess of 55%, which gives yus more than 90 wins, and that’ll be enough to win the division.
Moondoggy - June 12, 2010
99 games off baseball left in the season
99 games of baseball
Beat the Doyers and chalk up a W
98 games off baseball left in the season
red floyd - June 12, 2010
You must Login with your SB Nation account and be a member of Halos Heaven to post a comment.