Angels pitching has been extremely frustrating to watch (well, not so frustrating last night) because of a frequent inability to throw strikes. I wondered, is there any evidence that the catching can make a difference? A catcher can cost a pitcher a strike if he moves too much while catching a pitch, or blocking the ump from seeing a portion of the zone ("get down, Napoli!"). Some say a catcher can buy a strike by framing a pitch, but if they are too obvious about it the umpire may be inclined to call a ball. I looked at retrosheet's data to see what difference, if any, I can find in pitcher walk rate between Jeff Mathis and Mike Napoli.
What I did was look at all pitchers from 2005-2009 who faced at least 50 batters with Napoli and Mathis behind the plate. Then I pro-rated the Napoli walk rate to the Mathis plate appearances. The difference is big enough to notice. Our pitchers overall walked 9 percent more batters when Napoli was catching. Over a full season of 6200 plate appearances, this works out to 37 more walks, or about 12 runs. And higher pitch counts. Weaver was typical (8%), the differences for Saunders (37%) and Santana (39%) were more extreme.
I don't know if this is a fluke, or a repeatable skill. Most studies of catcher skill like this have not been shown to have any predictable effect for the future. I don't have any conclusions to offer, and don't know if it means Napoli is terrible, or that Mathis is a catching god, or something in between. What we've seen is a stretch of games where Napoli has caught virtually every game and our pitchers have walked way too many. I wonder if Mike Scioscia is thinking "I told you so" to us fans who criticized making Mathis the starting catcher at the beginning of the season. In Sosh we must trust.
3 recs | 12 comments
Holy crap
This just makes too much sense.
rghan - May 8, 2010
Yeah and CERA is not an over rated stat either.
Check those out. BTW Budde is a better defensive catcher the Naps and I don’t think he can hit worse right now. Let him go more.
pendletonmike - May 8, 2010
cool post
thanks.
dr-awkward - May 8, 2010
so he cost us an estimated 12 runs
but by not playing Napoli full time how many runs are WE loosing out on because of Mathis’s bat?
If in a full season Napolii hits even just 30 HR’s he will by far out produce offensively what Mathis contributes defensively.
Lets also not get caught up in his good bat of late, and good deffense. Mathis has played catch with CF quite often, and Napoli seems to block balls in the dirt just as well. The big dropoff is the game calling, but even then I have seen estimates that Napoli would cost us an additional 8 runs over a season.
I still would rather have Naps hitting 6th in the lineup and clearing the bases, than mathis striking out or hitting a popup to the SS
Sinatrasratpack - May 8, 2010
+1
I did a recent post about this, but I didn’t have a solid way to quantify the difference in runs Mathis saves defensively versus how many Mike produces offensively. If Mike really is only 12 more runs than Mathis allows, you’re right, he more than makes up for that with his bat. Even if you also subtract Jeff’s minute offensive contributions, Napoli seems to be the better choice.
There are other factors, though. Both can improve in their weaknesses. I think Napoli feels the pressure to improve his game calling. Santana’s last outing was a step forward for Nap. We’ll see if it continues. However, Mathis was already showing signs of swinging a better bat. Then, there are other things like who the ump is that is behind the catcher. In terms of seeing over Naps, a taller ump may have an advantage, which in turn, helps Nap get strikes called more often. That would be fun to examine, the height of the ump versus the strike to ball ratio for Mathis versus Napoli. Okay, now we’re getting carried away.
Rally Manatee - May 8, 2010
just 30 HRs
damn u make it sound easy
princeton11loveshalos - May 8, 2010
Napoli has DH/backup catcher written all over him
In fact, I think he should DH today so Matsui can have a day off finally. Budde can have another start or two.
Commander_Nate - May 8, 2010
I don't want to say that 12 runs per season is the difference
That’s just for walks. There is so much we don’t know here. We don’t know if this is predictable, maybe Napoli just caught people on their bad days. It could be even more of an impact than this. I only looked at walks here, but does one catcher get more strikeouts? Does one call more gopherballs?
Treat this as a very beginning investigation into catcher value. Maybe someday, I’ll come close to knowing the stuff Mike Scioscia already knows.
I suspect the Angels are at their best when both catchers are healthy and getting semi-regular time. If the pitchers are struggling, get Mathis a few more starts to get them back on track. Offense struggles, then we need a few more Napoli bombs.
RallyMonkey5 - May 8, 2010
Thanks, Sean.
Awesome. Very much looking forward to your further research.
So many variables to consider. Exactly why Scioscia plays them as he does is still an enigma wrapped in a riddle tucked in a conundrum for me. Clearly, the opposition to be faced has influence on this decision as well. Playing the Rays? They are going to generate runs – you better do so as well. Play Naps for his offensive potential. Playing a weak hitting, low scoring team – like the Mariners – that can be beaten with good defense? Play Mathis.
LAASurfin - May 8, 2010
I've noticed this.
Mathis’ hands almost never move when he recieves the ball. Naps on the other hand is painfully obvious. Even on a good pitch Napoli tries to make it look better, which is unecessary.
halofan4life - May 8, 2010
The term framing is overused.
I was a catcher in high school, one year of JC, and two years on the all west coast Marine team. I had some great coaches and they all say the same thing, be quiet. When you don’t move the glove it give the misconception that the pitcher hit his spot, and therefore the ump is more inclined to call it a strike.
Mathis is a very sound and quiet catcher while Naps can sometimes look like a kid on Riddlin behind the plate. It is also in the shoulders. If you are set up inside a right handed batter and the pitch misses a little in you can move your left shoulder towards the middle of the plate while catching the ball. It may seem like a small movement but the ump is looking at the ball and the glove and a small move of the shoulder can make it seem like the pitch is half an inch closer to the plate.
That in a nutshell is “framing” or just receiving the ball well. Whatever you want to call it, its really all the same. I don’t know how you can say that Naps will hit 30 HR’s with the way he can go cold overnight. I just really want to see the guy heat up, and this seems to be a trend the Halos have set. Cold the first 8 weeks of the season, then catch fire for a 50 game stretch. I look forward to that again.
pendletonmike - May 8, 2010
Me too.
halofan4life - May 8, 2010
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