Jacob de Golish - Getty Images
about 2 years ago: ANAHEIM, CA - APRIL 06: Joe Saunders #51 of the Los Angeles Angels of Aneheim pitches in the first inning against the Minnesota Twins on April 6, 2010 at the Angel Stadium of Anaheim in Anaheim, California. (Photo by Jacob de Golish/Getty Images)
I'll start off by saying I'm new to MLBAM's Pitch F/X data. I haven't compared him to other pitchers to see if his pitch selection patterns are normal, but I'll show you what I found. In Tuesday night's game, Joe Saunders pitched 5 innings of batting practice, giving up 8 hits, 5 runs, and 3 homers.
I think his problem was that when he got behind in the count, he threw only fastballs. He did at least mix these up between his four seamer and two seamer, but the hitter was not going to be fooled by speed. Saunders threw 14 pitches on a 3-0, 3-1, or 2-1 count. All but two were fastballs, and the two non-fastballs came on 2-1 counts, where he at least had some leeway.
Contrast this with his pitch selection with 2 strikes and less than 3 balls. He had 16 pitches in these counts, and mixed them between 4 fastballs, 3 sliders, 8 curveballs, and a change. He may have been throwing the fastball behind in the count because he was afraid to walk people, but his strike percentage was about the same either way.
If I can find these patterns, then hitters know them too. When major league hitters know what's coming they are going to hit it a long way. One compliment often paid to the elite pitchers of the game is that they have confidence to throw any pitch on any count. You never know what's coming. Later I'll look at last year's data to see if Joe is usually this predictable or if he did a better job randomizing his pitches last year. I sure hope he does on Sunday when he takes the mound against the A's.
0 recs | 15 comments
How mcuh of this can be blamed
on the CERA?
Rev Halofan - April 9, 2010
He had no command
And only trusted his meatball to throw for a strike. I don’t remember him being that way in the past; usually he has enough command to mix things up.
mattwelch - April 9, 2010
dead arm
(fingers crossed)
Rev Halofan - April 9, 2010
It's nothing to worry about. Pitcher who don't strike out many batter tend to have this happen here and there.
Hell, it happens to strikeout pitchers too, see Ervin Santana the other night.
snowhor - April 9, 2010 via mobile
this is more in line with what I was thinking......
a pitcher who pitches for contact……will at times…..get roughed up.
norcaliangelsfan - April 9, 2010
Good point norcal...
Last season during his awful stretch Saunders had similar outings. That rough stretch was thought by Angels staff and Saunders himself to be due to fatigue and his tired arm. This was confirmed because when he returned from hiatus he was lights out or at least pretty darn good.
This time is likely not due to tiredness or dead arm but, rather as norcal states just a poor outing. Saunders can be streaky (like most pitchers). But the guy does know how to pitch and has shown he can get big league hitters out.
Jack Frost - April 9, 2010
Agree, even more....
In reality, can we really ever expect Saunders to be more than a 15 game winner? Probably not. He doesnt dominate and never will. He relies on mixing it up. Getting contact-outs. Naturally, on some days, he will get really roughed up and not fool a damn person.
BryanHarvey'sMoustache - April 10, 2010
Personally,
if he is just a perpetual 15 game winner, I’m as happy as a pig in shmud.
“can we really ever expect Saunders to be more than a 15 game winner?”
wumbug - April 10, 2010
I was actually talking to my dad about this
I’m thinking Saunders doesn’t trust his offspeed enough at this point in the season to use it when he’s behind in the count. I didn’t notice this trend last year, but it was alarmingly true in his start. Unless Saunders adds 4-5 mph on his fastball (this will not happen), he’s gonna have to stop using it as his out pitch. Otherwise it’s just meat.
linkbruin - April 10, 2010
I guess I didn't even need to post this
Saunders, in his own words:
"The problem was that I was working behind in the count all night from the first pitch on. And in this league, you can’t do that," Saunders said. "When they know a fastball’s coming, they’re going to hit it hard. And that’s what happened tonight."
The solution is to not let hitters know a fastball is coming, even if behind in the count. Hopefully he can throw his breaking ball for a strike. But anything’s better than throwing meatballs.
When he did throw it, I though Joe had really nice break on his curve last week.
RallyMonkey5 - April 11, 2010
You know, if you have been paying attention to the televised games on FOX so far...
you can see for yourself that the pitch tracking system is wrong. It is missing on locations up and to the catcher’s left. The source for all this data is the same camera-based system. So what is going into the system is garbage. Therefore, what is coming out is garbage.
My current guess is that the system is missing on some form of ball rotation. It is projected a result that, in fact, is not realized. This possible problem would also manifest itself in mis-diagnosing pitch type.
Stirrups - April 11, 2010
fox camera angles
have no relationship to pitchtrax camera alignments.
What we see on TV is quite skewed from what they are measuring
Rev Halofan - April 12, 2010
I am well aware, and could go on for hours.
Not using a camera directly behind the pitcher IS a problem, but not always an insurmountable one. One trick is to observe the catcher and where the glove is with respect to the the catcher’s own shoulders, his position behind the plate, the ground, and even the plate itself, all when that glove catches the ball. Not exact, but closer.
The other factoid to remember is that the tracking system STOPS TRACKING THE BALL AT THE FRONT OF THE PLATE. This is not an accident. It is engineered into the system on purpose. The cameras have problems finding the ball amidst other movement, such as a batter in full swing. So the tracking systems actually never follow the ball into, or through, any strike zone. The animation works clever tricks to hide that fact. This shouldn’t be a surprise, anyway, because a 90mph fastball will travel a greater distance in the air than home plate is wide and deep, versus what the cameras can pick up between frames.
But I stand by my observation.
Stirrups - April 13, 2010
I swear that I have read you make this same argument about ten times.
Forgive me, but I am worried that I have anti-Alzheimers, where I constantly remember the same thing again and again.
Downing Rules - April 14, 2010
You are fine.
This is my one, singular, meaningful, non-snark contribution to HH and I am happy to offer it up every chance I get. I am always googling on this subject, trying to learn more, trying to build a blog-u-mentary on the subject. For the past couple of months I have been trying to get somebody at Sportvision, the makers of Pitch F/X, to talk to me.
There is actually more data, all interesting to me certainly, that I think will be shocking when all of it is put together.
Stirrups - April 14, 2010
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