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Mike Trout: Angels Top Prospect #4

4) Mike Trout, 8/7/91 - CF, Rookie League and A-Ball

.360/.418/.506 with 1 HR and 13 SB's. +10 bat, +9 glove

Ranking in a Nutshell: Upside in spades, and more polish than anyone could have hoped for. His numbers were very good in his pro-ball debut, and he impressed with his ability to use the opposite field, make game changing plays in center, and run the bases effectively; moreover, the general consensus is that 6'1, 200 lbs Trout still has plenty of potential remaining.

Track Record: Trout broke the New Jersey state high school record for homeruns, mashing 18 in his senior season.  To maximize his draft value, he played centerfield that year, though he had earned all state honors in 2008 for his work on the mound, where he hit 90 mph and put up a 1.77 ERA.  Once in Arizona, he contributed on all sides of the game and even made a run at the batting title against much older competition, claiming second place in the end. After the AZL Angels were eliminated, he jumped to the Midwest League to help in their playoff run, where he did not look overmatched against the tougher competition.

Win-the-Lottery-Ceiling: Your classic five-tool outfielder. In Arizona he showed the bat, the glove, and the speed.  There's some concern about the carry and accuracy on his throws from the outfield, but given his amateur track record on the mound, you know that the arm strength is there. He has the build to project for power, but that will likely be the last tool to emerge. The most common comp that I've seen is Aaron Rowand with more speed - the intangibles, the power, and the defense - but Trout could still develop more patience than that. 

Scouting Report: (beneath the jump)

Star-divide

At this stage, Trout's legs are his best tool. He swiped 13 bags in 39 Arizona games, but the speed also played well in the outfield, where TotalZone has him at 9 runs above average in limited playing time.  While current thinking has Trout eventually moving to right field in deference to Pete Bourjos' other-worldly centerfield defense, Trout could himself be a difference maker up the middle if he retains his speed.

You can see the MLB pre-draft footage of him here. The swing is quick, compact, and line drive oriented with little loft or extension out front. Although he remains tall during the cut, a quick pivot incorporates his body well and at the point of contact he generates significant leverage. In a late summer interview he said that  the Angels were having him focus on hitting the ball to the opposite field, where he drove 30% of his hits, but he obviously turned on the ball plenty in high school. Alex Eisenberg does a nice job breaking down Trout's "inside out" swing mechanics here, where he also ranks him the top prospect in the Angels' organization (a popular, but by no means universal, opinion this offseason) Baseball America projects Trout for average power (12-16 home runs), while Eisenberg said in his interview with Halos Heaven that he believes Trout could develop into a 15-20 HR threat. The polish that Trout flashed with a 15% walk rate in July was a pleasant surprise, but faded in August. His already modest K-rate regressed too, so he's not yet showing any problems with controlling the strike zone, but that will be thing to look for in full season ball. 

0 recs  |  25 comments

Comments

one of the guys I am most excited about

gotta love actually getting some good draft picks in recent years… Makes all the difference
My question is, how long till Bourjos, and Trout are patrolling our OF?

an outfield of Grichuk, Gorgeous, and Mini-Fish

is quite tantalizing………………

Indeed

although with our infield, I think you are more likely to see another free agent outfielder splashed in there. Once the Abreu/Hunter/Rivera era has come to an end and their contract dollars are opened up.

Fingers crossed for Carl Crawford

I can't wait...

to see Trout et al. in Cedar Rapids this summer.

You had me until the Aaron Rowand comp...

But still love your work on these profiles and the analysis.

Aaron Rowan.

Even given the fact that most prospects don’t pan out at all, Rowand would be a bit of disappointing result.

I’m hoping Grady Sizemore.

Rowand, that is. Aargh w/ typos.
Rowand comp

Is about his strength, size, and power potential, but most of all about the bulldog, gamer attitude he brings to the park everyday. I think Chicago fans remember that side of rowand very fondly, and wouldn’t bestow a comp like that lightly. Erstad would have the same sort of sentimental weight with us…

Understand the sentiment.

And no one can fault Rowand’s commitment nor his defense. I’m just hoping for a more careful bat to emerge from Trout.

Obviously few are going to cite Sizemore as a comp due to the handedness (which gives Grady even more value), but I hope the rest falls into place. He was another 17-yr old who showed early ability to hit and field and whose power developed at the upper levels.

I think it's unfair to both Trout and yourself

To start hoping for Grady Sizemore to emerge. Grady is a 30+ home run threat who walks a ton and is basically a freak athletically.

Why is Aaron Rowand suddenly a scrub? I was a big fan of the guy’s game in Chicago and Philly and would have loved to have had a young Rowand type on the team. Guys like that win games.

Tis True......

Grady is a Man among boys out there.

What? You saw his naked photo, too?
I wouldn't aim that high with 99% of prospects.

But seriously, how many first-rounders have the Angels had in the past two decades who were position players that actually exceeded expectations in their premier minor league season? Glaus? Kotchman? Even the two of them gave us about what we would’ve expected. I’m willing to be disappointed.

As far as Rowand goes, he’s had a couple exceptional seasons, but as I push forty, some of the luster is coming off the Erstad “grit factor” for me. Don’t get me wrong — Erstad’s is the only bobblehead I’ve actually purchased this decade — I loved the guy. But these types of players have a couple high peaks and early exits. They just can’t stay on the field into their thirties for the most part.

I’d rather have a player with a high median who is on the field consistently. And a player who develops the critical skills (like plate discipline) to have a long career. A franchise player (the Halos don’t have many)?

Rowand’s last two seasons, in what should be his prime years, have him putting up replacement-level offensive performances, and his career slash line and OPS+ look increasingly league average. BR has names like Trot Nixon, Jay Payton and Shea Hillenbrand as his “most similar players at this age”. He never roamed our field, so it’s hard to get sentimental about a profile like that.

Would you trade Trout having a career similar Erstad's...

…for another World Series Championship?

I couldn’t prove it, but Erstad’s “grit factor” seemed to be a key element to the 2002 season.

i do not now about "grit"

But Erstad’s CF defense in 2002 was historic and THE difference maker in an offense-crazy league.

This

You ask washburn, lackey, etc about who the most valuable member of that club was, and my guess is they’d all tell you erstie

All things being equal, sure.

But all things being equal so rarely happens, and if I had the fantasy pluck of Spike Jonze, I’d paint me a window out of diabetes into a land of key lime pie.

I think so many things came together in 2002, including Spiezio and Kennedy mashing rawhide over the fence at just the right moments, that Erstad’s glove was just one magic part of it. A really great part of it, but just a piece nonetheless.

I was attempting to put a bit of polish back on Erstad's "grit factor"...

… that has been a bit tarnished in your eyes.

I’d bet that if Trout could make the Faustian bargain to win a World Series in exchange for a “…high peak, early exit…” like Erstad, he’d take it. And I’d bet there are a lot of Angel fans that would be right there, pushing him to accept the bargain.

I think we're overthinking it

My point was that Rowand was a productive player on championship calibur teams and that we shouldn’t be bummed out if that’s what we get out of a kid taken when he was 17. A prospect panning out at all is great, getting one that impacts the game (even if it’s not like a superstar) is still a great score.

great point

People see a top prospect and think PUJOLS when they should be thinking “piece of the team in the future that is better than average.”

I'd love

Rowand with plate discipline.

Los Angeleeeez...

As long as he don’t float.

I remember...

when Trout was the only player who went to the MLB draft. Harold Reynolds was in love with him because he showed up.

If I lived in New Jersey, I'd take any excuse to get out of there too.

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