So you think you can predict? [Last Week!]

by scottnak on Feb 21, 2010 2:23 AM PST

Well, we've certainly had some interesting feedback to the recent results of these so-called-experts giving their opinions on how the 2010 season will turn out... and well, perhaps it would be interesting to see if some of us would be willing to predict as well. How would our guesses compare to those of the so-called-experts.

Of course, just remember this is all for kicks and fun.

So, I'm sure you would love to join in, you have until March 1st to make your picks.

Rules:
- You must select a number of wins for every team (if all teams are not picked = DQ)
- This contest only pertains to the regular season. Tiebreakers / Playoff games will not be included.
- In addition to using the form, you must also comment something in the comments. It doesn't have to be what you picked, just a sign to me that you actually used the form. No comment below = DQ.
- You may change your picks as many time as you want. Just use the form again.
- The So-Called-Experts will also be included in this contest. If you find any more predictions out there, feel free to add them in the comments.
- Deadline is March 1st, 11:59:59PM. The timestamp when you submit the form must be before this time.

Scoring:
- For each team, I will calculate the difference between your picks and their actual results.
- The differences will be added up to give your Final Score.
- The lower your Final Score the better it is.
- Tiebreakers will be the following:
--- 1. Number of teams you've picked wins perfectly
--- 2. Number of teams you've correctly ranked in each division.*
--- 3. The difference between your picks and the actual result for the Angels
--- 4. The difference between your picks and the actual result for a randomly selected team.
--- 5. Repeat 4 until all teams are exhausted or tie is broken.
--- 6. Random draw.

* If two teams have the same number of wins, and their ranks are ambiguous, either rank they take up will be considered correct (that is, if two teams are tied for 2nd, 2nd & 3rd are "correct")

2010 MLB Standings Picks!

Teams are currently in order by their final rank in 2009.
If you believe some team will get <41 wins or >120 wins, you must leave a note in the comments.

* Required

Screenname *

AL West

Angels

Rangers

Mariners

Athletics

AL Central

Twins

Tigers

White Sox

Indians

Royals

AL East

Yankees

Red Sox

Rays

Blue Jays

Orioles

NL West

Dodgers

Rockies

Giants

Padres

Diamondbacks

NL Central

Cardinals

Cubs

Brewers

Reds

Astros

Pirates

NL East

Phillies

Marlins

Braves

Mets

Nationals

Note: When you submit, it will redirect to the confirmation screen. It wont redirect part of the screen like usual.

0 recs | 89 comments

Comments

Here we go...

Try’d to do these without even looking at last years records so may luck be on my side!

lightupthehalo29 - February 1, 2010 reply

Done!

Figgi4life - February 1, 2010 via mobile reply

Note to Rob Neyer

I did this drunk as shit…so when my predictions come up spot on….consider quitting and taking up alcoholism.

BryanHarvey'sMoustache - February 1, 2010 reply

Rec'd, but extra credit for still having enough weekend staying power to be partying hard late Sunday night.

Stirrups - February 1, 2010 reply

Hung the f' over

And 5 on the way to tomorrow’s hangover. Same philosophy but slightly different angle.

Culero - February 6, 2010 reply

my predictions

if you wanna see them, look at the spreadsheet. I used absolutely no scientific reasoning behind my picks, just gut feeling..

b0rd3rline - February 1, 2010 reply

Done in under 2 minutes

Suck it, Neyer!

dannyras - February 1, 2010 reply

I think I got all mine added up to 2430, which is the magic number

At least I think it is the magic number.

My Playoff picks:

AL West: Angels
AL Central: Twins
AL East: Yankees
AL Wild Card: Rays

NL West: Diamondbacks
NL Central: Cardinals
NL East: Phillies
NL Wild Card: Mets

Slyintine - February 1, 2010 reply

You and I both...

…then at least have one thing on PECOTA…

We have a NON ZERO chance of our predictions being exactly correct. PECOTA doesn’t add up. Which, of course, they explain the reasoning behind. Which, of course, I call just dumb. At least give yourself a one in a million chance of being right…

101halo - February 1, 2010 reply

easy.

101halo - February 1, 2010 reply

ps... scottnak...

…thank you for doing this. i’m going to laugh really hard when random Angel’s fans nail the predictions better than all the sophisticated systems.

101halo - February 1, 2010 reply

100% winged it without adding up to the magic number

Most of them dont even make sense, if I come anywhere close to winning I deserve a job at ESPN

PhiSlamma - February 1, 2010 reply

Let's see

I picked the Doyers behind the Giants and Rockies. God, I hope I’m right.

Teixeira Who? - February 1, 2010 reply

Picks done.

I guess I should have totalled my wins for each league and then seen if they equaled the number of teams for that league multiplied by eighty-one (or 162? not sure which). It’s after 4AM and mathmatics is very low on the totem pole at this moment.

But, then again, when the Pirates play the Nationals are we sure there will be a winner.

Thanks Scottnak, fun stuff’s cool.

hittheg - February 1, 2010 reply

Done!

joebernie - February 1, 2010 reply

Finished

Billman29 - February 1, 2010 reply

My Playoff Picks:

My Playoff picks:

AL West: Angels
AL Central: Twins
AL East: Yankees
AL Wild Card: Boston

NL West: Rockies
NL Central: Cardinals
NL East: Phillies
NL Wild Card: Dodgers

WasianCU - February 1, 2010 reply

So exactly like last season?

Except with the Rockies and Dodgers reversed. Eh.

Slyintine - February 1, 2010 reply

Ya...

I really went out on a limb there and took a chance huh….

Sometimes you have to go with your gut.

WasianCU - February 1, 2010 reply

I think

The Pirates will win 135 games this year and face the Royals who will win 128 in a classic World Series

Sinatrasratpack - February 1, 2010 reply

This is tough.

chairmanofthebar - February 1, 2010 reply

Done!

Angels22 - February 1, 2010 reply

done

10 27 02 - February 1, 2010 reply

Done

Epic Dean - February 1, 2010 reply

Halos win the AL West Again!!!!!

Twins have a big year!

norcaliangelsfan - February 1, 2010 reply

submitted

first round of blind guesses was at 2429, so i gave one more W to the Halos.

I picked the same AL playoff teams in the same order as last year, but I took the Marlins in the WC with the Rockies taking the West.

The big question is if this is the year the Reds stop just being trendy to pick to do well.

Kernel - February 1, 2010 reply

Done

Be sure to take the average when this is all done. My money is that the average does better than 98% of us.

BruinHalo - February 1, 2010 reply

Absolutely

There will be a bunch of yummy stats to throw around after everyone has their shot :P

scottnak - February 1, 2010 reply

Yeah

AL
Angels
Twins
Yankees
Rays WC

NL
San Francisco
Cubs
Phillies
Cardinals WC

xavier c - February 1, 2010 reply

Surprise Team

The Pirates will surprise everybody this year….

SMUangelFan - February 1, 2010 reply

and not lose 100 games?

Balls and Strikes - February 1, 2010 reply

Every season the Pirates are not contracted

It is a surprise.

Rev Halofan - February 1, 2010 via mobile reply

2010 Playoff Matchup Predictions

Wild Cards:
AL – Rangers
NL – Braves

ALDS Matchups:
First Series – Angels v. White Sox
Second Series – Yankees v. Rangers

NLDS Matchups:
First Series – Phillies v. Dodgers
Second Series – Cardinals v. Braves

Commander_Nate - February 1, 2010 reply

Done

What a great use of 5 mins

SalmonStream - February 1, 2010 reply

Done

Clip Show - February 1, 2010 reply

Done

Dogman - February 1, 2010 reply

done and

done

Wytelitning - February 1, 2010 reply

Done

April 4 Spring Opening Day Can’t Wait!

Kluless - February 1, 2010 reply

I guess I missed, my blind guesses added up to 2400

it seems improbably that the angels will win the division for 4 years in a row, but I cant bring myself to think that any of the other teams are good enough to challenge us for the crown.
The mariners may win 2 of every 5 games by a score of 1-0 when felix and lee pitch but will lose the next 3 games 5-1 with that weak ass offense. Seriously, where are the runs gonna come from? Griffey will break down by June and Guillen will implode by July.
Same goes for the A’s. How are they going to score runs? They may win some games 1-0 or 2-1 but if the other team scores more than 2 runs, I’d bet they lose 90% of the games.
The rangers intrigue me, they could be good this year- or they could flop. I personally bet they do pretty well until the wheels fall off in late august/ september. Vlad will break down and injuries will decimate their hopes. Maybe Ryan and co. will spend a ton at the deadline to get help, but I’d bet it comes at the expense of their farm system. This will hurt their chances at building the kind of teams the angels have for the past few years- young solid teams built from within to keep costs down- adding necessary FA’s to fill one or two gaps.
Anyway, I see the angels battling it out and clinching the west around Sept 24th. They dont have the “stars” the experts like to see, but this is a team built to score runs, and keep the other team from doing so. No real “all-stars” but no weaknesses either.

Balls and Strikes - February 1, 2010 reply

My Picks

Have been submitted

billhune - February 1, 2010 reply

Not picked yet. Just having a random observation...

If enough folks make picks, there should surely be enough data to create a statistical comparison of “random-assed-guesswork-by-bleacher-rats” versus the various formal projections. The range of guesses should be chartable into bell curves of expected wins for each team which, to be topical, could be mapped against the first order and second order deviations of PECOTA (well, the corrected PECOTA numbers, at least).

IF (and I cannot over-emphasize the IF here) the results are similar then, when all is said and done, something like PECOTA adds no new information. That kind of result might actually open up a line of possible inquiry that suggests that the designers of the various projection methods may have inadvertently created a mathematical representation that reinforces what they already know, rather than a system to create new information that predicts what is currently unknowable. That would be huge.

(This brain fart has been sponsored by the fact that scottnak already eliminated 50.6% of all possible options based on his own personal experience.)

Stirrups - February 1, 2010 reply

Or we are all just scottnak's guinea pigs.

I hope he does not just youthanize us when he is done with his experiments.

44FAN - February 2, 2010 reply

Better than him "old-en-izing" us!

;)

Downing Rules - February 2, 2010 reply

Apparently PECOTA's margin of error is +/- 7 wins...

…according to that tosser Neyer.

If you apply that margin of error to a projected record of 81-81 (i.e.a range of 74-88 wins applied to a fair coin toss for every game played) for every team over the last 5 years, you would have had them technically correct 46% of the time – 69/150 teams finished within that range since 2005.

So basically, any monkey with a coin can get about half of the way there, and anyone with the most basic knowledge of the game can tell you the truly mediocre teams and the exceptional ones, which just goes to show what little additional value these fabled projection systems offer.

The Limey - February 11, 2010 reply

Psychic Friend Network says

Brandon Wood hits 43 HRs and wins ROY. The Angels have four 20 game winners in Weaver, Kazmir, Santana, and Saunders. Brian Fuentes is abducted by aliens and comes back to Earth with an uncanny ability to save games without drama.

Zaius - February 1, 2010 reply

I knew there was a reason I was paying the $20 a minute

Balls and Strikes - February 1, 2010 reply

win!

stuck in Romania - February 1, 2010 reply

???

didn’t try to figure out the magic number just went with what I thought eacht eam would win

socal native - February 1, 2010 reply

Someone just pick last year's numbers.

So I just did under the name “LAST YEAR’S NUMBERS”

I’d love that to win.

BruinHalo - February 1, 2010 reply

Bug

I aubmitted picks, hit enter, got “your’re not done yet”. Had omitted the Reds in the NL Central. Paged back, did it again. Same. Paged back, did it again, same. Hit refresh, all picks wiped out. Oh well ………….

Ed Coffin - February 1, 2010 reply