Extremely Early CAIRO 2011 MLB Projected Standings - Replacement Level Yankees Weblog
The West looks like Texas’s to lose, even without Cliff "The Big Train" Lee. LA of A could pick up about three wins if they sign Adrian Beltre, but that alone doesn’t seem like it’d be enough to get them up to Texas’s level.
Here's our first look at projections for next season...and it's ugly. It was shortly after this time last year when projections starting coming out predicting the Angels would be an 80-85 win team, and we all threw up our arms in disbelief and went on record saying things like, "How can the Angels be an 80-win team after they won the division last season (2009)?" and "These projections suck!". The only thing wrong with last season's projections was that they were right.
Anyway, the above link shows projections for next season, a season that's looking to shape up as another disappointing season for Angels fans. These first projections have the Angels coming in at 78 wins, scoring 665 runs while allowing 690, and finishing 12 games behind the Rangers. That's the bad news. There is some good news...the Mariners are still worse, but only because they are the only team in the league who are projected to score less runs than the Angels. Last season, the Angels scored 681 runs (40 runs below league average), and without adding any offense this off-season, the 665 runs looks to be a fair estimate, especially when you consider the loss of Matsui and another year added to the already aging Abreu/Hunter duo. The projections do take into account the improved pitching. Last season the Angels allowed 702 runs (14 runs below league average). These projections have the Angels reducing that number by 12, but still more than the projected league average (671).
Also, within this FanGraphs article about the projections, the Angels are classified as "Rebuilding". I don't know about you, but I HATE that word when describing the Angels: The Playoffs Sweet Spot - FanGraphs Baseball
Rebuilding – Baltimore, Toronto, Cleveland, Kansas City, Los Angeles of Anaheim, Seattle, New York (N), Florida, Washington, Chicago (N), Pittsburgh, Houston, San Diego, and Arizona
December 30 - BR Bullpen
Events, births and deaths that occurred on December 30.
1907 - The Mills Commission on the origins of baseball reports that the game was invented by Abner Doubleday in Cooperstown, New York, in 1839. The Commission is convinced by the testimony of Abner Graves, who claimed to be a childhood companion of Doubleday's. Grave's story is later "verified" when an old, rotting ball is found among his personal effects; the ball is now in the Hall of Fame. The Commission ignores the fact that Doubleday did not graduate from West Point until 1842. Thus leading to Bud Selig's belief.
1935 - Sandy Koufax, one of the most dominant pitchers in history, is born in Brooklyn, NY. He will go on to pitch for the hometown Dodgers, but his career really takes off when the team moves to Los Angeles. Koufax will post a 129-47 record and capture three Cy Young Awards. He will win all three when only one award is given annually for the two leagues.
Happy b-day:
1935 - Sandy Koufax, pitcher; All-Star, Hall of Famer
1945 - Tom Murphy, pitcher
1976 - A.J. Pierzynski, catcher; All-Star Douchebag
0 recs | 168 comments
Koufax looks great
But does Torre understand he isn’t the manager anymore? This could be awkward…
George Kaplan - December 30, 2010
ahhh they can suck it
I’m more optimistic this time around. I’m sure some of the guys will return to form and it’ll be a better year for us.
GutterDem0n - December 30, 2010 via mobile
Poll question
Based on the question of whether the Angels should use 2011 to rebuild…I don’t think they have much choice after such an uneventful winter.
TR6 - December 30, 2010
In the AL West, we're OK
We have as good as shot as any one.
One thing I’ll point out is how close we are to the WS Champ SF Giants in RS/RA predictions, and with Beltre (and/or Vlad back) I’d guess we’d be equal.
one HUGE advantage (if i may be allowed to call it that) going into this season is that we are aware that Kazmir & Wood are not going to be the players we thought they’d be. Those two really cost us and we were counting on them, they’re back and can’t get any worse, and if they do, they’ll be jettisoned by the end of May.
I don’t think ANYONE in the LA of A organization is going into this thing without the full intentions of winning it, so if you think its a rebuilding year, you’re wrong.
We all might have to re-evaluate this mid-summer, but we have as good as chance as anyone today of winning the AL West.
Rex Fregosi - December 30, 2010
Jettisoned? To where?
eh?
Great advantage. Our players suck balls .. but we know it.
clover_black - December 30, 2010
Wasn't Wood already jettisoned to the bench much of the last part of the sesaon?
44FAN - December 30, 2010
Correct.
He would be a defensive replacement (hah!) in late innings… get his one AB and strike out on something off-speed.
clover_black - December 30, 2010
Does it matter?
I don’t care where my toilet water goes after I flush, I just know I feel better afterwards.
Commander_Nate - December 30, 2010
Graphic
mustard_man - December 30, 2010
No
44FAN - December 30, 2010
As in too graphic
mustard_man - December 30, 2010
I thought you meant make a graph. LOL
44FAN - December 30, 2010
Just shoot me now....
mustard_man - December 30, 2010
Don't encourage me
DoV on the other hand…
Commander_Nate - December 30, 2010
Think about another season of Kaznobyl and sub-200 Wood
Then tell me which is more graphic and offensive.
Commander_Nate - December 30, 2010
add some premium D to the mix and a closer who can't wear his hat straight
and this season might need a parental warning
clover_black - December 30, 2010
I certainly won't argue that....
mustard_man - December 30, 2010
Yes - jettisoned to where...and replaced with what?
mustard_man - December 30, 2010
Is WiHaloFan rebuilding the Halolinks with the extended commentary?
44FAN - December 30, 2010
There wasn't much to link to
I’d usually like to write more, but I don’t want to over do it. (TL:dr)
WiHaloFan - December 30, 2010
I'm just yanking your chain. We enjoy your opinions very much.
44FAN - December 30, 2010
Speak for yourself.
RexTookMyStash - December 30, 2010
Try to maintain a sense of decorum.
44FAN - December 30, 2010
This is all Boras
Commander_Nate - December 30, 2010
I can't even spell decorum.
I’m going to the bar with DOV
RexTookMyStash - December 30, 2010
Leave your kids with his In the bar's
Children daycare
HalosBiggestFan - December 30, 2010 via mobile
2010 projections were right but ...
Look at the 2009, 2008, 2007, etc projections. For whatever reason, the Angels consistently beat out their projections. Maybe things have balanced out and the team will play closer to projections. I doubt it though. This is a team that could easily win 90 games. They could also easily win 75.
I have a hard time believing that they are even capable of being worse than they were in 2010. Seriously, EVERY offensive player had a down year and the rotation was filled with Kazmir who just might have been the worst pitcher in the game in 2010. That won’t be repeated.
bjsguess - December 30, 2010
So..let me understand
First, looks at the roster today compared to the 2007, 2008, 2009 roster. There’s some folks who had very good years back then that are no longer on the team.
Second, Texas gets better due to the talent in the farm getting big league time, Oakland significantly improves their roster, and the Halos stand pat on offense and defense – and they will realistically gain roughly 10 wins over 2010’s performance?
Your optimism is admirable, but unfortunately not grounded in fact based on the 2011 roster.
mustard_man - December 30, 2010
Much better bullpen
Full season of Haren and Morales and Bourjos? The obvious loss here is Matsui, but I think the Angels are a marginally better team than last season’s.
Slyintine - December 30, 2010
I agree. I could see as much as five more wins because of this easy.
It seem like the blowpen last year was responsible for at least five losses on its own.
44FAN - December 30, 2010
So - is Rodney not closing?
mustard_man - December 30, 2010
When?
In April, probably; by May 15, I doubt it. Rodney’s on a very short leash. He wasn’t the closer by the end of the year last year.
jjackflash - December 30, 2010
Exactly
This bullpen added Downs and Takahashi of course, Shields is gone, Fuentes is gone and Walden, Thompson and Kohn are added. Hopefully Rodney goes down with a season ending injury sometime in April.
ryanfea - December 30, 2010
Of course, given the volatility of relief pitchers, who knows what Downs and Takahashi will do?
Gorbachav5 - December 30, 2010
Bullpen is better on paper
We’ll see how it translates.
I think this team isn’t anywhere close to done for the offseason. We still have a lot of infielders and catchers to sort out that will be traded or packaged for something, even if its just salary relief.
Rivera, Callaspo, Kendrick, Napoli, Izturis, Wood, Willits…….I’d say at least 2 are swapped out
ihearhowie2.0 - December 30, 2010
This
Slyintine - December 30, 2010
dude
Reagins is already on record as saying they’ve signed, like, 15 free agents.
2pintsofbooze - December 30, 2010
Sorry
My fault – I forgot about all those additions….
mustard_man - December 30, 2010
by Tony's rationale, here's a list of the new free agent signings
they’ve got Morales coming back. A full season of Haren. They really just signed Abreu a couple years ago, so throw him in there. Bourjos is like a new signing, even though he isn’t. They’ve got a new RF in Hunter, so you should count him. Piniero didn’t play a full season, so until he does, Reagins is counting him in there. a new closer in Rodney, plus the additions of Walden, Kohn, Takahashi, & Downs…thats a quick +5 for the BP. Callaspo is like Haren, a mid-season addition, and we know in Reagins’ mind thats the same as a new FA signing. thats 12 new free agents right there!
rebuilding my ass, lets go win this shit
2pintsofbooze - December 30, 2010
What about the new trainer, the new bench coach, and the new farm director?
They were free agent signings too
mustard_man - December 30, 2010
rec this , son!!!!!
clover_black - December 30, 2010
Preach on!
Angelsfan015 - December 30, 2010
And
If Napoli plays full-time instead of Mathis, there’s another equivalent FA signing.
angelslogic - December 30, 2010
I think Reagins would argue
that you’re reaching
:)
2pintsofbooze - December 30, 2010
Games are won and lost on the field....
…but the projections are fair based upon the roster today.
For those who think 2010 was the aberration and not 2009, expect to be disappointed in 2011.
For all those “Arte is the smartest guy in the room” people, if the w/l projections are accurate – will 2011 attendance at the Big A increase or decrease?
mustard_man - December 30, 2010
This is going to be a huge off year for attendance
There are a lot of factors at play, but I’m predicting a 10% decrease in attendance this year.
HungryHunter - December 30, 2010
we're only resigning p for 2/3 of last years season tix
none of our fair weather friends (and – gasp – family) wants to go to the games and the seats sit empty
Moondoggy - December 30, 2010
I agree unless they sign Beltre.
angelslogic - December 30, 2010
Meant as reply to HungryHunter.
angelslogic - December 30, 2010
i gotta get hold of Tim Mead....
If they absolutely, positively NEED a sold out game full of Angels fans….
JEFF MATHIS VIKING FUNERAL NIGHT! We can combine it with a big bang Friday. Or just a MATHIS TRADE NIGHT where the jumbotron just shows TR sitting in a room with a phone trying to trade Jeffy Ball Game to any team anywhere…. Italy, Korea, Honduras…. and when he finds a taker, even if it’s in the middle of an inning, the fire works go off and everyone gets free Orange Chicken from Panda Express.
gitchogritchoffmypetis - December 30, 2010
I saw both Koufax and Ryan pitch in person.
Personal venom for Ryan aside, Koufax was scarier.
If Ryan came at you like a P-51 Mustang, power and roar and incomparable performance, Koufax came at you like an F-117 Stealth Fighter. All sharp edges and angles at an invisibly supersonic speed.
With Ryan you braced yourself and feably attempted to take your shot. With Koufax you didn’t even know what hit you.
Stirrups - December 30, 2010
The thing is...where do you start a rebuild?
The only way we would rebuild would be to trade Weaver, Haren or Morales for some studs and theres about a -500% chance that happens.
We’re kind of in that weird big market zone where our payroll makes it impossible for us to really justify a rebuild because $120+ Million should always allow you to keep your own stars.
ihearhowie2.0 - December 30, 2010
Soooooooo
We could up being the mets?
halofan4life - December 30, 2010 via mobile
How are we projected to be worse than last season?
Obviously we are still a third place team as constructed but we’ve at least improved to an 82-83 win team
ryanfea - December 30, 2010
I don't know for sure, but guess it's a combination of:
- Abreu and Hunter are older
- Weaver reverts closer to his 2009 baseline
- Morales takes time to get in prime baseball shape
- Oakland has improved
mustard_man - December 30, 2010
I hate projections
- Hunter will be older but playing RF and not a limited CF, therefore technically should be more valuable (in WAR terms etc).
- Abreu posted a career worst BABIP and LD% last season, all other variables were ok. If he regresses to career levels or slightly worse due to age, he will actually improve offensively.
- I wouldn’t say for sure that 2009 was a baseline for Weaver. He took big steps last year and they look sustainable. There is a big K% uptick and nothing to indicate ‘luck’ played a great part.
- Marales could take time for sure, having him back though is great.
- Oakland have indeed improved.
TheQuestforMerlin - December 30, 2010
Wasn't saying I agreed
Just GUESSING at the reasons why…
mustard_man - December 30, 2010
Yeah no worries I was giving my riposte! Didn't have you down as agreeing with it (I was meant to write, "i know you probably don't believe all that")
I just hate projections and needed to release. And just in case anybody actually started believing in the boo hoo hype… or reading them as gospel
TheQuestforMerlin - December 30, 2010
Hunter will lose 10 runs from the positional adjustment
Because the average RF hits better than the average CF. He can earn those runs back with defense, since the average RF saves fewer runs than the average CF, but it will probably be a wash in the end. I’m more worried about Torii Hunter suddenly remembering he turns 36 next summer.
Suboptimal - December 30, 2010
Isn't Hunter an above average offensive RF though, despite the positional change (putting aside the age thing)? A cursory glance at FG suggests he is.
I may have misunderstood though.
TheQuestforMerlin - December 30, 2010
The math would probably work out like this
Last year, Hunter was on pace to save 6 runs less than the average CF in 150 games. His performance in RF would have saved 4 runs above average over 150 games. So moving him from center to right for a full season would make him worth 10 more runs defensively.
However, the average RF is 10 runs better than the average CF offensively. Even if Hunter produces the same amount with the bat, his contribution would be worth less because WAR is measured relative to the position. The offensive and defensive adjustments just happen to cancel out in Hunter’s case.
Suboptimal - December 30, 2010
From my understanding of WAR, it takes into acount wRAA and park adjustments (and defensive positional adj + UZR)
How do offensive positional adjustments come into it?
TheQuestforMerlin - January 2, 2011
I'd just like for Torii to learn that you have to be *really really* fast to steal 3rd.
red floyd - December 30, 2010
Not Buying
that the Angels pitching will be worse than league average. A full season of Haren minus a half season of Joe Saunders (loved the guy, but Haren’s a far superior pitcher) and what should be a vastly improved bullpen and I think the Angels are lot more than 12 runs better. Plus, I don’t think they’ll let Kazmir make 28 starts again unless he’s healthy and pitching a lot better than he did last year. I’m betting that the Angels pitching improves by something closer to 35-40 runs.
jjackflash - December 30, 2010
Guessing - but maybe they think Weaver's 2010 season was a fluke?
mustard_man - December 30, 2010
Perhaps
He had such a good year, I wouldn’t be shocked if he isn’t quite as good. I’m still not buying the worse-than-league-average projection, though.
jjackflash - December 30, 2010
Yep - understood
Like I said – just guessing at how they came up with the data.
I agree the pitching staff should at least be as good at 2010, if not better.
As for the offense and defense, I’m still not a believer based on the current roster.
mustard_man - December 30, 2010
His era was amazing
but just think how much better he would be with more run support
(which hopefully he’ll get with the addition of Beltre and Morales, and the rebirth of Aybar out of the #8 slot.)
Raaddad - December 30, 2010
Kasmir will be on a very short innings "leash"
like at the end of last season—he’ll pitch 5, then Soth will bring in the bullpen to finish. If he can keep the run total to 3-4 runs per 5 innings, we have a shot—particularly with our new-ish bullpen.
Raaddad - December 30, 2010
as the offense currenly stands
coupled with the Ralley Monkey’s decline, I’m thinking those 3-4 runs will be plenty to beat the Halos on most nights.
2pintsofbooze - December 30, 2010
*currently
2pintsofbooze - December 30, 2010
so the pithcing projections
would be almost the exact same as last year if Kazmir didn’t have that 13 run game. interesting
2pintsofbooze - December 30, 2010
How is it that
the Ranges pitching staff sans Cliff Lee is projected to give up fewer runs than the Angels?
tizzidy19 - December 30, 2010
Presumably
All of the Rangers’ one-hit wonders (C.J. Wilson, Colby Lewis, etc.) are all, miraculously, the real deal.
jjackflash - December 30, 2010
It would be interesting how well they project Webb to do next year.
44FAN - December 30, 2010
I really want to see Kazmir
in the bullpen if he doesn’t return to his full form…and f*ck it, let Brandon Wood throw some pitches this Spring Training. What if his real talent is on the mound? Looks like he’s built like a pitcher..
maze88 - December 30, 2010
What if he's really good at ice hockey?
Sadly, we’ll never know.
RexTookMyStash - December 30, 2010
Nah, I don't see it.
He would have to be able to take blows and have some attitude…which he really lacks.
Maybe a golfer…
maze88 - December 30, 2010
Not to mention that hockey players also need to hit.
Stirrups - December 30, 2010
Ha!
maze88 - December 30, 2010
Maybe the Angels should have Brandon Wood try out for "Big Brother" reality show.
The show takes place over the summer. Last season they had a washed up baseball player from Arizona on there and he ended up winning the million dollars.
44FAN - December 30, 2010
This team could be decent if Sosh plays it right
_but he wont. _
Naps should play as many games as possible…_ but he wont._
Rodney should not close… but he will.
Mathis should be a defensive replacement at most… but he will start more games than Napoli.
The front office needs a Thome, or someone who knows how to take a walk besides Abreu but the Angels love slap hitting middle infielders
RapSor is sitting on the FA market. The best closer last year is just waiting for a job with no bidding war in sight. Soriano alone could make Angels games a 6 inning affair.…“too expensive
Whats sad is:
-the DH for the very first game of the season is probably going to be Izturis.
-Mathis will start.
-The starting third baseman will be Callaspo.
If managed correctly this team could put a decent lineup on the field. With some FA moves that this team could afford the lineup and bullpen could be a lot better.
If If If.
This team is going to be terrible.
PhiSlamma - December 30, 2010
Formatting fail.
I want a Fing edit button.
And coffee.
And a fit thin chick who looks like she is about to topple over while she makes me dinner at night.
PhiSlamma - December 30, 2010
be careful what you wish for
today’s topple is tomorrow’s pendulum
Moondoggy - December 30, 2010
Yeah, baby!
Chicks with spina bifida make the best cooks.
Stirrups - December 30, 2010
I'll take one any day.
As long as she leans to the right though, since I’m a conservative.
RexTookMyStash - December 30, 2010
She would lean to the left though, depending which way she's facing
Commander_Nate - December 30, 2010
...must...resist...political...joke...opportunities...
Stirrups - December 30, 2010
Give in to the Dark Side.
Join us and we can Rule the Joke Universe!
Angelsfan015 - December 30, 2010
Let'
RexTookMyStash - December 30, 2010
post fail
Let’s hear the jokes man! I promise I won’t be offended.
RexTookMyStash - December 30, 2010
This is where sabermetrics starts getting a little mystical to me
They are great for analysis and even some projection on an individual player basis, but calculating all 2430 games that make up a full baseball season? There’s just too many variables in there to seriously claim any real accuracy. Don’t get me wrong, they make for interesting discussion, but they don’t tell the future.
Commander_Nate - December 30, 2010
Sabermetrics is all voodoo anyway.
You have to have a PhD in math to even begin to understand it. The added categories of stats beyond the basics (ERA, RBI, BA, etc) is all padding to keep these guys in a job. They come up with new ones all the time just to prove they can.
I am not saying that statistics should be abolished, but if the average fan cannot understand it, you are playing with yourself for your own amusement at that point.
Angelsfan015 - December 30, 2010
The problem is that some teams employ offices that understand these fancy newfangled statistics.
Our front office is not one of those. But on the bright side, we’ve got third place locked down for the next few years. So, we’ve got that going for us, which is nice.
snowhor - December 30, 2010
I wouldn't go that far
On an individual basis, they are pretty useful. The basic ones aren’t really to tought to understand either. It’s just trying to calculate entire teams over a full year where it gets fuzzy.
Commander_Nate - December 30, 2010
Fuzzy is an understatement.
Angelsfan015 - December 30, 2010
I love feel-good insights.
Like, say, that a Phd in applied math and “voodoo” are roughly equivalent. That’s like a big old overstuffed chair, that one. When times are tough, I can cruise into the sports forums, park it, and hear this “insight” articulated in roughly the same way anywhere sabermetrics is mentioned. Down to the word “voodoo” in fact. It’s not even a meme exactly — it’s a prerecording — or like a holiday message from the American Federation of Teachers. And I can skip the lecture and just warm my hands over the populist fire, as the sun sets over the Honda dealership.
It makes me feel totally bulletproof and rad, like when my Chinese overlords and the market sim wizards at Goldman Sachs cross pinkies and blow me a kiss. Or when Theo Epstein and John Henry, who have presided over the most successful baseball franchise in the MLB since 2002, do the same. OTOH, Boston also just happens to be baseball’s most sabermetric franchise, so those pocket-protected Mass-turbators can eat my balls.
Turks Teeth - December 30, 2010
Can you please write a book about angels baseball?
Or at least a humor blog?
I don’t want to inflate your already grandiose ego but I do enjoy reading your literary offerings to us masses who have been starved of such.
RexTookMyStash - December 30, 2010
I seldom understand what the fuck he's talking about.
But that’s probably just me.
WiHaloFan - December 30, 2010
It's not "literary"
But I know what you mean. His style is hip with an intellectual bent. TT is sort of like the Dennis Miller of HH.
Raaddad - December 30, 2010
To quote Arthur C. Clarke: "Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic."
The same sentiment can be applied to Sabermetrics for the average fan of a baseball team that has not devoted their time and energy to understanding every aspect of them – hence the voodoo reference.
I do realize that Sabermetric statistics are mathematical calculations that could be understood if one applied the time. However, I do not have said time to apply to such studies. Is that position a populist one? Yes. Is the view I expressed new? No. Understand though, that the average fan falls into that very same category as I do.
I also understand that baseball teams (like Boston and probably every other team to some extent) employ whole teams of staffers that do nothing but analyze such numbers to make their franchise the best they can based on the results of the study of such numbers and statistics.
I am glad that you find comfort and humor in the average fan’s reaction to calculations that seemingly make no earthly sense. I am glad I could provide you some warmth and amusement on a night such as this on the eve of the New Year. Have a Merry New Year and enjoy your Uber-calculations as well as your amusement of such fans that enjoy the game for what it is and feel no desire to attend a math lesson instead of a pleasurable, enjoyable sporting experience.
I look forward to the season to come, not for its mathly goodness but because it will bring BASEBALL and everything good, bad, uplifting, depressing, sprit soaring and soul crushing that occurs during the roller coaster ride of the season. I hope you enjoy the season to come in your own way.
Angelsfan015 - December 31, 2010
Boston's post-2002 success in their math scores was propped up mightly by the chemistry department.
Meanwhile, it must be admitted that sabremetrics are far from a completed science. There are large aspects of sabremetrics which succeed only on self-supporting terms. And it is still a long way off before we can remove all reasonable doubts.
If voodoo practitioners used statistics instead of chicken bones to conjur up their proclamations, it wouldn’t make their practice any more scientific. This is not so far off the current state of defensive baseball metrics. Just because some people can pile up numbers doesn’t mean that those numbers speak any truths. And the proper response to a challenge of those numbers is not to heap up even more pilies of them.
Stirrups - December 31, 2010
Keep *what* guys in a job?
Sabermetrics has been from the start one of the biggest explosion in unpaid amateur science ever committed by man. People are trying to figure stuff out, and they’ve done a remarkable job of it, despite some dork-ass acronyms, prickish attitudes, and projection systems that people confuse with analysis.
mattwelch - December 31, 2010
Perhaps a poor phrase choice.
Sorry.
Angelsfan015 - December 31, 2010
The numbers are fine for what they are
Projections are just averages. There are a multitude of possible outcomes, and the win-loss projection tells you the most likely outcome (according to the particular statistical estimation). Even if the Angels are “projected” to finish 81-81, the chance of actually finishing 81-81 could be, like, 8%. Maybe there’s a 7% chance of finishing 82-80, a 6% chance of finish 83-79, and so on. You could add all them up and possibly come out with a 20% chance of winning 90 games or more, depending on the actual distribution.
If you combined that with the 50% chance that the Rangers win less than 89 games, the Angels would still project to have a 10% chance of winning the division. It’ll be less when you account for the A’s, but still “significant.” However, the conclusion people generally draw when they see the Rangers projected for 89.5 wins and the Angels for 81.0 wins is “oh my God, the Angels are screwed.” Then should the Angels win 90 games and beat out the Rangers by 2 games, everyone says the projections were wrong.
There might be less confusion if forecasters published the “spread” in the projection more often, and not just the average. Some of it may be lack of sophistication in the methods, but maybe it’s marketing too. The illusion of certainty might lead to additional sales.
Suboptimal - December 30, 2010
Yeah, the spread would be much better
Still though, it seems the spread would be too wide to really be worth putting much stock in one set of outcomes over the other.
Commander_Nate - December 31, 2010
Projections are the least interesting & possible least useful thing about sabermetrics
mattwelch - December 31, 2010
Least useful, that's for sure.
Commander_Nate - December 31, 2010
I'll take Vegas win totals over these projections everyday of the week
and twice on Sunday
hauldog - December 30, 2010
what are
the Vegas win totals for the Halos?
2pintsofbooze - December 30, 2010
They are not out yet. They usually come out in late Feb.
hauldog - December 30, 2010
And they'll be just as ugly for us as these.
snowhor - December 30, 2010
Most likely yes as they should be. IMO the Angels suck.
They do not always fall in line with the projections most notably PECOTA
hauldog - December 30, 2010
thats right
when I’m there in February for the super bowl, if I haven’t already won some decent money gambling, I will most likely be very hesitant to put my customary $50 on them to win the WS this year unless they make some big moves. I guess it’ll depend on the odds, which should be much better than in past seasons.
2pintsofbooze - December 30, 2010
That should be a good return
15-1 to 20-1 would be my guess.
hauldog - December 30, 2010
yeah
could be worth a $20, maybe $50 if they get Beltre
2pintsofbooze - December 30, 2010
I agree with you, Wi, hating the word rebuilding when describing us.
I wouldn’t mind it if it was actually what we were doing. A better term would be stagnating.
snowhor - December 30, 2010
We don't rebuild, its basically a 'soft' term for lets sell all our best players and hope the future gets brighter
Really doesn’t work as you might project, plan etc. We’ve seen what prospect attrition looks like, haven’t we?
Rebuilding is for small market teams to appease fans with a ‘rosy’ bright future. Think USSR circa 1950s.
TheQuestforMerlin - December 30, 2010
I dunno
it sure worked for Texas when they traded Tex away. it may not always work out for the best, but it can.
and I’m not advocating they enter a full rebuild, just sayin.
2pintsofbooze - December 30, 2010
Sure, trading a player or two away for prospects if its worth it is fine
Thats not rebuilding, thats just being smart.
Rebuilding is what the A’s did in the early 2000s, when they got rid of their “Big 3”. Not smart. Despite some A’s fans thinking it at the time.
TheQuestforMerlin - December 30, 2010
so if the Halos
traded Morales, their best player, to another team for 5 of their top prospects, none of which were going to see the majors that season, you wouldn’t constitute that as a rebuild? I guess it could be perceived as a partial rebuild since it isn’t a complete fire sale, but trading away your best player for prospects who will help you compete in a couple years seems pretty close to it.
2pintsofbooze - December 30, 2010
Context
At the time the Texas Rangers were a mess of a ML team, Millwood, Kameron Loe, Padilla, Brandon McCarthy were the top 4 SPs… A far cry from what we currently have… they were just not competitive in any meaningful way (whereas I would contend we are, if not a couple of players offensively away. Remember 2009? The only offense we miss from that team is Figgins and Vlad… everyone else is around. We need a bit of luck, maybe a smart addition/trade, Beltre?…)
Also, Teix rejected a large contract extension from Texas in 2007, indicating no desire to play for the Rangers. The trade was made out of necessity for Texas and their return… was… well: Saltamacchia, Feliz, Andrus, Matt Harrison and Beau Jones. If we were forced into trading Morales in similar circumstances and could get a haul including an Andrus and Feliz, i’d be pretty satisfied.
TheQuestforMerlin - December 30, 2010
agree
each situation is different, so its hard to compare one team to another.
I still can’t believe how murdered Atlanta got in that trade considering what they got from us for Tex just one season later.
2pintsofbooze - December 30, 2010
Ridiculous right?!
Thats what ‘win now’ can do to you. We took the same kinda hit with Kazmir (definitely not as big or bad as Atlanta). However the Teix and Haren trades were brilliant.
TheQuestforMerlin - December 30, 2010
The term "Rebuilding Year" has always been a copout in my eyes.
It seems that any time a team is “rebuilding” they are announcing they have given up on their current roster and have no confidence in winning anything with what they have and the ONLY hope they have of doing better AT ALLl is to strip the organization down to some “core” of key players and restock the shelves.
Needless to say, I hate the term “rebuilding year.” It seems to be yet another euphemism used to cover up what’s really going on.
Angelsfan015 - December 30, 2010
Bad drafts + old players + bad contracts = restocking not probable.
Sometimes you have to blow a team up to even have a chance in the next few years.
PhiSlamma - December 30, 2010
Okay, I'll buy that.
However, I don’t feel the Angels are in that position at this time. I could be proven wrong if this next season is total garbage, but that is yet to be seen.
Angelsfan015 - December 30, 2010
Have to agree with you. What is irritating is the Angels continue to load
up on pitchers and completely ignore the simple fact that their lack of
offense is the primary reason for their failures in the playoffs. That simple
fact continues to be ignored by the Angels front office despite, saying that
they will address the teams perceived weaknesses. It seems so easy to
just pay lip service. No effort is put into improving the team by adding a
couple of good hitters. It seems the Angels are penny wise and pound
foolish. At some point, you have to spend some money to improve the
team. Yet, they ignore the horrible signing of Kazmir who they signed to
a nice sized contract for how many years?
JimmyBlue - December 31, 2010
Zero
The Angels did not sign Kazmir to any kind of contract.
jjackflash - December 31, 2010
Still paying for his huge contract
Angels are still paying for Kazmir’s huge contract. Here is the link.
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/angels_blog/2009/08/angels-trade-for-kazmir-official.html
JimmyBlue - January 1, 2011
Clueless
Do you seriously not understand the difference between a trade and a free agent signing? You claimed that the Angels signed Kazmir to a long-term contract. That is simply not true. The Angels never signed Scott Kazmir to a contract.
jjackflash - January 4, 2011
There is no such thing as "a rebuilding year" in baseball.
“Rebuilding” a baseball team takes multiple years, not 1. You are either capable of contending now, or trying to shuffle the deck chairs as fast as possible so that you can contend a couple of years down the road, or you are the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Stirrups - December 30, 2010
Fair enough.
I still don’t like the term, though.
Angelsfan015 - December 30, 2010
And that is why you don't like it. Because it is bullshit.
Stirrups - December 30, 2010
Then we agree on that point in the least.
Angelsfan015 - December 30, 2010
Meh...
So, we are an 80-win projected team.
NOW LET’S GO WIN 90!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Downing Rules - December 30, 2010
channeling acuda?
hauldog - December 30, 2010
We have a winner.
Downing Rules - December 30, 2010
I dont think were that far off from the Rangers
It felt like we were within grasping distance from the Rangers all year long… Dont get me wrong i know how young and talented that team is, but im just not sold on the Angels sucking… sounds like im in the minority here..
wheres_bourjos_at - December 30, 2010 via mobile
I'm with you.
We were close at points last year. That fact gives me hope for this year.
Angelsfan015 - December 30, 2010
What is the chance that two kids named Abner
who live in the same city
and are friends?
I smell a cover up
DAD OF VLAD - December 30, 2010
No, that's just me.
RexTookMyStash - December 30, 2010
Hey! I've got an idea!
Since all the projections this season have us losing with or without Adrian Beltre, why don’t we overpay for him nonetheless? That makes a lot of sense. The backend of his and Torii’s contract should look real sweet in 2012. Two aging players, that have never won anywhere, set to guide us to the promised land. I love it!
I vote rebuild.
bc56274 - December 30, 2010
I think you're buying in to the projections
a little too much there guy. I mean, why even be a fan if you think a projection that came out months before the season has started is going to detemine the outcome. How many projections had the Giants winning the WS? or tha Halos winning the WS in 2002?
for your sake, how bout you just check the projections every December, and if it isn’t to your liking, you take that season off and check back next year. it would at least save us from your constant bitching and moaning.
2pintsofbooze - December 30, 2010
Nobody is bitching, dude.
I want the Angels to win as much as anyone, I just don’t think it’s going to happen in 2011.
38% of the people want to see rebuilding, as well.
Quit being such a baby because people have a differing opinion than yours.
bc56274 - December 30, 2010
you're calling me a baby?
thats rich considering your first comment. lets go through it though to see just how much sense you’re making;
ummm, to try and make the team better in hopes of contending. You really think Arte and Reagins are going to look at that bullshit projection and decide not to get Beltre, since its already a foregone conclusion that they’ll lose? and who is overpaying? he’s one of the best players in the MLB at his position and is an instant upgrade over anything the Angels could put there next season. plus, you don’t even know how much his contract would be for, so how can you say they’re overpaying?
2012 is the season after next. unless Beltre plans on taking a 2 year deal, how is that the backend of his contract? and are you saying Torii hasn’t been worth his contract thus far, or are you predicting a steep decline now that he’s moved to a less-strenuous position?
Seriously??? By this rationale, the Halos should only sign players who have won WS rings. and last I checked, there aren’t very many of those who are A) free agents or B) still good enough to help the Halos get better in positions of need. But hey, Eckstein is out there and he’s won not 1 but 2 WS rings, guess they should sign him right?
I have nothing against you having a differing opinion than myself, but when that opinion either doesn’t make sense (see above), or is based on some bullshit projection done 3 months before the first pitch of the season has been thrown, not to mention before the team is even done adding pieces for the upcoming season, well, thats when I felt I needed to call you out for, yes, bitching.
2pintsofbooze - December 30, 2010
PhiSlamma - December 30, 2010
A rec for you 2 pints.
angelslogic - December 30, 2010
+1
And an A+ for an outstanding concise articulate rebuttal from Prof. Raad
Raaddad - December 30, 2010
Remember where you were on this day
Dec 30, 2010 at 335 PM – 2pintsofbooze lets out the can of Whoopass™ that I always knew he had in the cupboard. Nicely done sir, I believe I’ll have another serving.
Commander_Nate - December 30, 2010
I agree with 2pints.
Even the author said that the projections were preliminary and should not taken as God’s Own truth. Have some pride in the team and have some hope.
Angelsfan015 - December 30, 2010
"Two aging players, that have never won anywhere"
Torii’s teams have made the playoffs 6 times.
mattwelch - December 31, 2010
And Abreu's teams...
have been to the playoffs 4 times.
WiHaloFan - December 31, 2010
The Angels are going to lose so much money this season, They should have just traded Juan Rivera at least.. they’ve done absolutely NOTHING. Sad.
Nobody knows if they’re going to be alive 30 seconds from now let alone two or three seasons from now.
Follow your Dreams - December 30, 2010
X
RexTookMyStash - December 30, 2010
I just don't buy these projections.
It’s like they are ignoring a pitching staff that starts out Weaver, Haren, Santana, Piniero…. it’s not the Phillies, but it’s a hell of a lot better than Texas. I think they have a more legit shot of repeating their quality season than the A’s young arms. Our bullpen’s better than last year, and, just like with “career best” seasons and how no one should take them too seriously, we had a bunch of “career worst” play on our team last year. I find it hard to believe everyone’s gonna suck as bad as they did last year.
I mean, it was hard to believe how lifeless and dead the Angels were last year. It was like they all had mono or something…. just tired and dead. I find it very hard to believe that the whole team’s gonna end up in the Horse Latitudes again. We also have a young, hungry pen, with good lefties and at least three guys who want Rodneys job, and young players with egos and job security concerns who are gonna want to play with some fire (Callaspo, Aybar, Naps, Kendrick even Wood). They may not be super good, but i think they will be far more driven to execute and try to address their individual weaknesses this year. We may not be World Series contenders this year, but we’re better than they are predicting.
gitchogritchoffmypetis - December 30, 2010
I have a hunch.. based off of nothing but my gut
Howie’s ganna have a f**king break out year next season.. he finally had a full season where he didnt get injured… didnt suck ass all season.. next year mofo is ganna b nuts just watch! I said it first u hear me!!!!! >:0
wheres_bourjos_at - December 30, 2010 via mobile
is he gonna win the batting title?
2pintsofbooze - December 30, 2010
He'll bat over .300 thats for sure!!!
wheres_bourjos_at - December 30, 2010 via mobile
Howie is going to win a batting title someday.
Definitely.
Source: Internets
Zaius - December 31, 2010
For what it's worth
and based on nothing but intuition, I suspect the Angels are going to return to outperforming projections and Pythagoras next year. Not that this will necessarily mean much; 85-88 wins would fit that scenario. Still, I feel that they will do about that as currently constituted. I don’t imagine that will be enough to win the division, but it’s possible.
This is why I am all for getting Beltre, even with some moderate overpaying. I suspect that he would indeed put us into the postseason—for an early exit, most likely, but still, it’s better than sucking.
As far as rebuilding goes, well, it might work for a team whose FO could evaluate talent competently. That’s why I am dead set against the idea.
rspencer - December 30, 2010
Oh
and it’s not all intuition, actually. It is based upon an expectation that several of the players were having career-worst years, and will rebound at least to their previous career averages. That, and the expectation that we will win more close low-scoring games than the average.
Beyond that, it’s a mystical faith in Scioscialism.
rspencer - December 30, 2010
These projections
imho…
Rangers overrated
Athletics underrated
Angels correctly rated
Rangers are closer to the pack and Athletics may even be better. There are enough health concerns with the two teams above the Angels that give the Angels some good hope at coming out on top in 2011. But I would not be surprised at all if the Athletics win the ALW next year.
Xeifrank - December 30, 2010
I disagree...
I still think run support and road trips will hurt the A’s over the course of the season. They have too many donuts in their lineup. If you look at Texas’ 2010 season, their record, runs scored, and overall performance was very dependent, if not a mirror of, Vlad and Elvis’ performance. Meaning, when they tailed off, so did the Rangers. The Rangers have good pitching, but it’s not GREAT. It’s hittable, that’s for sure. Vlad is much more important to their success than maybe they even realize. He was very motivated to start the season and the playoffs and when he’s locked in I’ll take his RBI and inning deciding hits mid-game ANYDAY over Thome, Matsui, or Lee. The AL West is won on a boring Tuesday night in Seattle and/or Oakland not under primetime lights. We’ve shown we have the ability to pitch teams (especially those teams) to death, if we add pieces (and I’ve advocated Beltre, Damon, and [Vlad or Lee] be added to our mix of power and hackers) to get run support and have guys ready to play everyday baseball, rather than simply primetime baseball, we’ll win the West. All you need to do is win that night. Getting the big guys is for the inefficient playoff history we’ve had of late. We lost the AL West when we lost Kendry and realized we had no bullpen. A team with four bomb ass starters, hitters like Howie, Hunter, Morales, and Beltre comes to the park every night with a chance to win. Adding Vlad only deepens that chance. Going to the park and turning the tube on seeing what opportunity that opens up for Aybar, Napoli, Abreu, and Bourjos to be that star for a day each night makes it worth it. You get old Johnny Damon as the old scruff who gets you the clutch hit in the Red Sox game and WS and the book is written. Shit, I think I just got myself ready for the season!!! Let’s go!!
thebigtizzle - December 31, 2010
Nicely stated, sir
Within this paragraph lies many essential and invigotating elements of what turns us on about baseball and really all sports: that typical summer night when anything can happen and anyone can become a Roy Hobbs.
(and some damn good writing for 2:42 in the morning! Ahh…I remember those days…)
Raaddad - December 31, 2010
I think this whole post could've been summed up
by just using your last sentence.
Xeifrank - December 31, 2010
As my daughter would say
what a poophead
Raaddad - December 31, 2010
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