Halos Heaven

and

Mr. Market

Now 65% agree

BruinHalo - December 23, 2010 reply

Clarify this for me, Rev

Is this your theory of what is being said behind closed doors, or have you been provided with a glimpse of what the Team Boras agenda is?

George Kaplan - December 22, 2010 reply

Baseball Reference Dot Com

Plus time on my hands

equals

exposition of obviousness…

well framed response

Moondoggy - December 23, 2010 reply

Is it any wonder he's not President?

Commander_Nate - December 23, 2010 reply

I actually did see several weeks ago that Boras was using Torii as a comp

Don’t remember exactly where now. I lol’d at the time but then I stopped because I knew he was serious.

Beltre would get Torii money

If there were more big market teams trying to sign him.

ryanfea - December 22, 2010 reply

There are

The big misunderstanding in this league is that the one or two most obvious teams are guaranteed to sign a guy.This is market capitalism. Yes, I hope that if we offered 5/80 that they’re only arguing about pennies. If we raised Oakland’s 64m with 70m, then there is a such thing as creating a competing bid. Because we have been a foregone conclusion to have money and need many people will back off of bidding. If the ALWest teams start penny pinching AND if this is really about money for Beltre and Boras, they will pitch a “pay This” to a team they know wants to pay a 90m ceiling without bidding. I bet the Yanks were hoping Jeter went FA so they could move ARod over and get Beltre. Shit, Texas probably has a cap that’s like 80m, but doesn’t want to bid. I suspect “non-bidders” like Colorado, Giants, Texas (sorta), and San Diego saying we’re not in the market but if it stays within that small club 60-70m mark call us because it would work out for us number wise just by adding the bat for a flat 80m.

Keep in mind, this shit IS NOT regressive, it’s a sign of the times. 80 million is the new 10 million….

I'm going stir crazy.

I read the headline Adrian Beltre Signing With Angels

clover_black - December 22, 2010 reply

sorry about that

I will change “WILL” to “Would”

Didn't help me, but I just raced through the headline and didn't sound out the words.

I was beyond excited for about a nanosecond before the brain adjusted.

opiejeanne - December 23, 2010 reply

I saw a car driving in West Covina with fake reindeer antlers on it today.

Just like those little Lakers flags only they were reindeer antlers.

44FAN - December 22, 2010 reply

I've seen those for several years.

This year, though, I’ve noticed cars with that and a bright red clown nose on the hood.

Rudolph.

opiejeanne - December 23, 2010 reply

He doesn't get out much

Raaddad - December 23, 2010 reply

trying to stop a flood

Valuable as he is, Torii is not worth Torii money. Perhaps this is a longer term negotiating posture re: Weaver. That said, I am inclined to agree we won’t get him – both sides are getting to the point where neither can loose face. A’s and maybe the White Sox are dark horses. Texas just might screw over Young, having tasted the espn limelight.

BahBoon - December 22, 2010 reply

Is Torii Worth Torii Money

Post-Werth?

But the question stands, was benji Gil worth benji Gil money?

HalosBiggestFan - December 23, 2010 via mobile reply

Without a doubt.

sheisalovelyladyandmyapologiestoher - December 22, 2010 reply

Depends on who everyone agrees is a standard bearer

If Werth is at 18 mil – is St. Louis going to be okay with that basis for determining the value of Pujols? After all, Pujols is a far, far, better player. Could anyone really afford him if Werth has set a new sliding scale?

I agree that someone or something’s worth is determined by a market, but right now the market is not connected to a single standard. Therefore, it is more difficult to determine which contracts are outliers, which are inflationary, and which represent a raise in terms of overall percentage of revenue. In other words, Torii is great, but he is not the gold standard – much less Werth. The market should have been set by the best player. That is why Pujols (who by consensus is the best player) could do a great service to baseball next year, simply by not forcing a team to pay 30+ mil per.

This is a problem I think the FO recognizes (I agree with the premise of your article), and is trying to re-establish markers for this and future negotiations (as in re-establishing the credible threat of walking away – the essence of leverage in any negotiation.)

BTW – the A’s wouldn’t have sent a signal unless they are willing to better the Angels offer – they would just like better it by the least amount of money possible. Boras is going to save face after all of this.

BahBoon - December 23, 2010 reply

You Hit It Right On The Head

First, we need to start with the fact that Torii is worth Torii money. His signing was a huge risk that so far has proven to be solid. However, we have 2 years to go. His value dropped when he moved to RF. There is a lot that can still go wrong.

Second, one overpay does NOT equal the need to overpay in the future. Whether you are using Werth’s deal or Hunter’s … both were for too much money. If that is your baseline then you will overpay.

Beltre is “worth” exactly as much as the market is willing to pay for his services. In some years that will be more than Hunter/Werth. In other years it will be much less. The only thing the Angels need to concern themselves with is (1) who else is bidding and (2) how much do they estimate that they will need to pay in order to lure Beltre to LA.

The big market clubs are out. Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, Phillies, Cubs, etc are all tapped out financially or have in-house options. That leaves the Angels and a bunch of other mystery teams. Sure one of those teams could sign him but the probability of 5/$100m deal is incredibly slim.

bjsguess - December 24, 2010 reply

you sound like a cheapskate

frankly, your cost calculator sounds like it is stuck on 2004 Vlad Signing math.

Rev Halofan - December 24, 2010 reply

I'm inclined to thing you're right....

I agree that both sides appear to have reached the point where they can’t back down. Considering the past bad-blood between Bor-ass and Moreno, I just can’t see us getting Beltre. Too bad, because it’s been far too long since we’ve had a true offensive threat at third base…I never dreamed that it would take this long to replace Troy Glaus.

spiritof1979 - December 24, 2010 reply

MEME ALERT! C'mon, say it with me....

This is all Boras.
BTW, IMO, If BoraBeltre are waiting out a Hunter contract with the Angels, he aint gonna sign with us.

check

wumbug - December 22, 2010 reply

Halofann4ever

Why doesn’t Adrian Beltre sign already

Halo fann 2002 - December 22, 2010 via mobile reply

Cause he wants a sixth year nobody's gonna offer

Just give it time and Boras/Beltre will have to sign with us. Every team is pretty set at 3rd base (except Oakland but they don’t have enough money) I expect Beltre to sign by the 29th

Morales8 - December 23, 2010 reply

From your mouth to God's ear.

opiejeanne - December 23, 2010 reply

I had this same thought the other day

Well, I didn’t think the Angels should cough up Torii money, and I still don’t. But in the absence of competitive bidding, I’ll bet that Boras is holding up negotiations over this very point. He’s done this in the past: “You paid $X million for Player Y, so Player Z is worth at least $X million.” Boras probably sent Reagins a binder full of comparisons between the two players.

And it’s absolutely true that Adrian Beltre deserves as much money as Torii Hunter. It’s just that Torii Hunter doesn’t. A commodity’s free-market value depends on what people are willing to pay for it, and no one is willing to pay $90 million for Adrian Beltre.

This might drag on until January, but things would have to get really crazy for Beltre to get much more than what’s already on the table.

Suboptimal - December 23, 2010 reply

Then they can say

well we learned the hard way, and we are not doing it again. Booya

Nord15 - December 23, 2010 reply

I Agree

with Rev’s conclusion: Beltre will get a Torii contract from someone. He’s just too good, at too valuable a position, not to get that kind of deal.

I still do not understand how there can be anyone who thinks Beltre isn’t worth it, to the extent that any athlete is worth $90 million. He is an elite 3B defensively, and a plus offensive player. Even at age 32, he is one of the best in the game at his position, and the fact remains that there will be no better 3B available on the free agent market for many years, certainly not during the life of whatever contract he signs. That’s the key point that the Beltre naysayers do not comprehend: there will be nobody better available for a long, long time. David Wright is signed through 2013; ditto Ryan Zimmerman. Evan Longoria is signed through 2016. A-Rod is signed through 2017. Where else are the Angels going to get a 3B before 2014?

jjackflash - December 23, 2010 reply

I think the "naysaysers" get it

The flip side to your list of players is, what team has a need for a 3B and has Torii money to spend on that player? Deep-pocket teams like the Yankees, Mets, Red Sox, Tigers and Cubs have expensive, incumbent 3B now. The White Sox right now have a Boras client at 3B, so that would seem to take them out of the picture. Teams with money to spend, like the Nationals and Rangers likewise have incumbent 3B.

Then there are teams who might have the money and do have the need, like the Orioles, Blue Jays and Oakland, but they most likely won’t sniff the postseason for the 5-6 years of the contract Beltre wants and I am convinced he wants the opportunity to play in the postseason.

I think that, in his mind, he was going to return to the Red Sox and be 3B there for the remainder of his career, getting legit shots at the Series every year. When they traded for Gonzalez, it screwed with his master plan and the Angels would seem to be his fallback position.

The Angels have the money (within reason) and a history of going to the playoffs. By happy coincidence, the team happens to be located close to where Beltre has lived for the past decade or so. I can’t think of another team which could/would pay $75M/5 and has an opening at 3B. I think holding the line, and waiting until his expectations match our reality is the best course of action.

George Kaplan - December 23, 2010 reply

It might be close

But I don’t think he’ll get Torii money.

First is consistency. He’s only a year removed from an abysmal season. You (or he) can blame it on injuries all you want, but that’s still part of the equation. Hunter was injured a couple years before his big contract, but was still good with the bat and the glove that season.

The second is the market. The Angels weren’t the only team with the means to get Hunter that offseason, but it seems like they’re the logical place for Beltre to end up.

The third is that Hunter was signed at a premium to be the public face of the franchise. His numbers weren’t worth $18 million a year, and I’m sure (kind of) that the Angels knew it. But he would market the franchise since Vlad wasn’t that type of guy. Beltre would just be a player; he’s not going to be asked to be the team spokesperson.

All in all, it will still wind up being close, but I don’t think the Angels are going to cough up Torii money. $16 million a year is more reasonable.

Gorbachav5 - December 23, 2010 reply

Spokesperson?

So that imposter stuff was representative of the team’s way of thinking? Is that the real reason why Vlad is gone? Holy shit, does this mean Jeff Miller was right?

snowhor - December 27, 2010 reply

I think he'll get 5/71

There just isn’t a market to create a bidding war, and Arte doesn’t look budge-able. The only way something else happens is if the Blue Jays or some mystery team decides to go for broke.

mattwelch - December 23, 2010 reply

Arte will up the offer if there is another team bidding...

I honestly think we’re the highest bidding team with interest right now and Arte is well aware of Boras’ tactics of getting him to bid against himself. He’s too smart to do that.

So yeah I think your prediction is spot on. Beltre will be an Angel and it’s gonna be in the 5/70 range.

Nashdiesel - December 23, 2010 reply

I would be very surprised at that...but happy

but still very surprised….

WTF is wrong with 5/75

That’s VLAD IN HIS PRIME money, fergoodnessakes

Inflation

Beltre signed a 64/5 that year.

And Vlad's contract actually was depressed due to concerns about his back.

That’s how we outbid the Mets.

snowhor - December 27, 2010 reply

Repeating myself alert:

When negotiating, there is a fine line between being shrewd and getting screwed. If we sign Beltre for 5/71, great. If we lose out to another team offering 5/75 or 6/80, shame on Reagins and Arte.

angelslogic - December 23, 2010 reply

Merry Christmas to all!

Thanks...and Merry Christmas back!

Maybe Arte has a crazy cousin Eddie that will kidnap Beltre, tie him up, put a bow on his head, and give him to Arte as a Christmas gift.

sothball - December 23, 2010 reply

Haha!

I dressed up as Cousin Eddie for Xmas party over the weekend. I was him while emptying out his poop from his motor home. To damn funny!

angelskid2210 - December 23, 2010 via mobile reply

Win.

6 pack hanging from your waste?

Busch light....haha

angelskid2210 - December 27, 2010 reply

"That's the gift that keeps on giving, Clark."

Freakin’ love that line.

Downing Rules - December 23, 2010 reply

Arte's a Hispanic like me. We have bumper crops of crazy cousins around the globe, so I'm optimistic about this.

See...

Now if someone of non-latin extraction had put “Hispanic” and “bumper crops” in the same headline you’d be all up in their culo about it!

LAASurfin - December 23, 2010 reply

haha

Quad Fin Rider - December 23, 2010 reply

Actually Dec. 23 is Festivus

So it’s time for the Airing of Grievances

To be followed by the Feats of Strength!

I've gotta lotta problems with you people!

Starting with DOV. He couldn’t smooth a silk shirt if he had a hot date…..I lost my train of thought.

sheisalovelyladyandmyapologiestoher - December 23, 2010 reply

It's a Festivus for the rest of us!

Let the Airing of Grievances begin!!!

Oh wait, we’ve been doing that all off-season.

Quad Fin Rider - December 23, 2010 reply

2010 was my first full year on HH

and if I offended a few people here with my posts these past 12 months, well then fuck me, because I really wanted to offend everyone.

I personally find those who post to rile others up offensive

They have no place here and should leave immediately.

where did that shifty eyed goat go

anyway?

^^^^ There he is ^^^^

Someone needs to talk to the editors about banning you sir.

LAstands4LovingAnaheim - December 23, 2010 via mobile reply

in the words of David Lee Roth

I been to the edge … and there I stood and looked down…

In the words of Nietzsche

When you stare into the abyss the abyss stares back at you.

Ah yes

Im sure you will see him during the season. He is too busy being a bro-doucher at clubs in Santa Moncia to post on HH.

You can find him with 22 popped collars and drinking jaeger bombs. He is in the fucking zone chief.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T55ArHjeR1c&feature=related

Not a goat but definitely shifty eyes

ryanfea - December 23, 2010 reply

This is what Boras said to begin the offseason

I’m not sure he will get it, but that’s what Boras wants.

Brody - December 23, 2010 via mobile reply

What Boras wants....

Boras gets…
And dollar bills, Boras wants you!

Cookie for the ref

very good writeup comapring the 2, I didn't realize they were so similar

although you did leave out one noteworthy difference between the 2 that could easily answer why Torii would be worth more than Beltre; his smile. It alone is worth another $3 mil a season, at least.

2pintsofbooze - December 23, 2010 reply

Love Torii always have

The Angels probably gave him some extra money for something that is very overlooked…team chemistry. Torii makes everyone laugh and loosen up but Beltre flips out if you touch his head.

Morales8 - December 23, 2010 reply

That's why

I don’t think Beltre is worth Torii money

Morales8 - December 23, 2010 reply

Christmas time

Do you think the angels will end up increasing their offer to 5 years 80 mill even though arte said he wasn’t.

Halo fann 2002 - December 23, 2010 via mobile reply

Do you think the Angels

Actually offered what Mike DiGiovanna claimed they offered? I don’t. I think they offered a Torii-like five year package and now Boras is shopping for a sixth year and pointing out the Werth got seven.

Boras

is that guy in your fantasy league who blantantly tries to rip you off in every trade and gives you transparently awful reasons why.

You open your league page to see

Send Albert Pujols to Douche Bag
Send Ubaldo Jimenez to Douche Bag

Recieve Mark Texieria from DB
Recieve Vernon Wells from DB

“Bro, Albert’s back is bad and like Ubaldo is over his head. Like, if you look at Well’s numbers he is back to elite man, he will keep it up for sure. And Tex is money, 100% in that park. He is going to hit 60.”

Dude, no, f off.

Boras waits for a good offer then uses that totally fair offer as a BASELINE. Everyone sees how horribly snake like it is, but then GMs get all caught up in shiny players with shiny numbers and say F it. Who in the hell thought Beltre is worth 100 million, like ever? Its a joke to even consider it. In fact, its somewhat crazy to think he is worth 75 million, but now that its there, Boras thinks its ok to ask for significantly more.

I hate that guy

every league has one, but why is it that my league has 4?

2pintsofbooze - December 23, 2010 reply

The formula is usually the same:

Pick up waiver trash

Offer one decent player and waiver trash for elite player

Act offended when you tell them to go die in a fire.

Commander_Nate - December 23, 2010 reply

then, after you decline their proposal

the next day they drop the waiver trash, which is yet another slap in the face to you.

this happened a few weeks ago in my FF league. a guy offered me Ryan Mathews and his 3rd string QB (yes, he had 3 QBs on his team) for my #1 RB claiming that Mathews was a 1st rounder (true, but he sucks) and my QB was questionable. after I declined, the next day he dropped that QB. friggin douche.

2pintsofbooze - December 23, 2010 reply

Ruxin?

Haha!

angelskid2210 - December 23, 2010 via mobile reply

Christmas time

Blah

HalosBiggestFan - December 23, 2010 via mobile reply

Hunter's contract looked awful at the time

But his awesomeness was worth it. He isnt quite elite talent, but his bust-ass play, clubhouse attitude, and badassery make him a fan favorite and well worth the contract. Hunter’s signing was one of my favorite, above Vlad, purely because it gives us a personality. Vlad just kinda shrugged off fans and hit home runs. And remember his attitue when he won the home run derby? Classless.

If Beltre becomes an infield version of Hunter then I say bring it on for the same cost.

Yeah, but he needs a refresher course on the art of stealing third base.

angelslogic - December 23, 2010 reply

The rules of stealing third base

Run REAL fast
If your name is Torii Hunter, forget Rule #1 and stay at 2B instead

Vlad was one of the friendliest players ever

I flew to seattle on year and went to see a game. Vlad saw my angels red and came and shook my hand. He even tried his best to speak english to me, thankfully i new some spanish. He never shrugged off anyone

Halos2011champs - December 23, 2010 via mobile reply

Yeah, I don't think Vlad shrugged off fans, I think he was just .. shy ...

And probably wasn’t comfortable being the face of the franchise.

sheisalovelyladyandmyapologiestoher - December 23, 2010 reply

Beltre will sign for

5 years 75 million with a 6 year club option

M.Napoli For President in 2012 - December 23, 2010 via mobile reply

shouldn't that be a player option, if he wants to "win"?

SenorChuckles - December 23, 2010 reply

So let it be posted, so let it be done.

I think

You are right cuz I didn’t believe mike digiovana and if Beltre wants a 6th year than why not give him a 6 year and sign him already.

Halo fann 2002 - December 23, 2010 via mobile reply

Counterarguments

1. Even after putting up a .919 OPS and 6.1 WAR in 2010, the Red Sox, despite Beltre’s expressed preference to play in Boston, refused to offer more than a 4 year contract. Boston instead seemed giddy to obtain Carl Crawford for seven years, $142 million.

2. Torii’s contract happened before the biggest PED reveals (ARod, Manny, Big Papi). Teams seem much more reluctant to offer long term contract to players in their thirties. (Despite the idiots in Washington). Even with a glaring need for front line pitching, even the MFY refused to increase their offer to Cliff Lee and were outbid by the Rangers.

3. Beltre is one year removed from free agency in which he accepted a one year $9 million contract.

VPBOB - December 23, 2010 reply

Just think...

if brandon wood could hit a baseball (outside of salt lake), we wouldn’t even be having this conversation.

clover_black - December 23, 2010 reply

Rev

2nd paragraph

He got $18 million a year for three years.

should be five years

thanks

fixed!

No problem

Good write up.

I've felt this way since he hit the market, he is definitely worth Torii money

1. He can hit the shit out of the ball
2. He plays plus defense at a premium position
3. He can provide a lot for our team over the next 5-6 years than we think.

Sure, he’s 32, but he doesn’t have any major injury issues and 3B isn’t as physically demanding of a position as CF. We could probably stick him at first/DH near the end of the contract because I’m sure Morales will flee to greener pastures after his time is up with the Angels (he’s a Boras client, after all).

I will be very disappointed if we don’t sign Beltre, he is the only piece we need to be a very competitive team next year.

jtkelly86 - December 23, 2010 reply

You say,

2. He plays plus defense at a premium position

I didn’t know he plays catcher.

angelslogic - December 23, 2010 reply

he's definitely better than Mathis

jtkelly86 - December 23, 2010 reply

I agree with the premise

but like others I don’t think there is a strong enough market for him to get it.

If that is the absolute minimum then my guess is he won’t be playing next year

is he worth the money

probably not, but they should take it anyway cause if not Boras may have the cojones to ask for 9 figures for Weaver next season

well that would be stupid

because Weave is not a free agent next year and asking for that in arbitration would be a lost cause.

yes but in a contract extension

I got that info after reading this

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/12/poll-the-next-100mm-contract.html

link

Why do they call million mm? That's "millimeters."

Million is a capital M, as in “mega.” WTF already?

Downing Rules - December 23, 2010 reply

They're not SI compliant.

sheisalovelyladyandmyapologiestoher - December 23, 2010 reply

Bring the Great Genuflector home already!

Because the sound of David Cortney saying, “Now batting, the third baseman Izzy Callaspowood” literally makes me nauseous.

Now batting for Pedro Borbon... borbon..... Manny Mota... mota... mota....

One minor thing....

Torii has never been accused of doing ’roids. The last time we signed a suspected roider to a 5 year contract we shat the bed. 5/90 is ridiculous for Beltre and has bust written all over it.

GrandyOlePal - December 23, 2010 reply

Hm..

what I would do with 70 million bucks….

migfig - December 23, 2010 reply

you think the year amount would matter if

someone offered beltre/boras 3 years for $88 million?