Drew Hallowell - Getty Images
Cliff Lee or Adrian Beltre? "The Angels would be far better with Lee" - Athletics Nation
Breaking Down the Angels' Financials - Athletics Nation
LINKS AFTER THE BREAK...
This is a really good analysis of the Angels from AN. I'm surprised someone from another teams' site took the time to provide such a thorough breakdown of of the Angels money/team situation. After reading the post, be sure to check out the comment section. Of the 500+ comments, over half are devoted to analyzing the dynamics of community and have nothing to do with the Angels (or even baseball for that matter). Still good stuff though.
Matsui officially a goner, signs with A's - angels.com
As expected, Matsui has agreed to a one-year free-agent contract for an estimated $7 million with the Oakland Athletics on Tuesday. The legendary slugger from Japan figures to replace Jack Cust as the primary DH for the A's, Cust having signed with the Seattle Mariners.
Actually, Matsui signed for $4.25M, not the $7M mentioned in that article. The $4.25M salary is slightly less than what Matsui earned as an Angel ($6M).
Keeping Score: Where Does the Phillies' Rotation Stand in History? - NYTimes.com
Taking totals for 2008 to 2010, the Phillies now have the first (Halladay), fourth (Lee), 17th (Oswalt) and 18th (Hamels) best starting pitchers of the past three years. The Angels, with Dan Haren (11th), Jered Weaver (16th) and Ervin Santana (30th), and the White Sox, with John Danks (6th), Mark Buehrle (15th) and Gavin Floyd (23rd), both have three such pitchers in the top 30. (The Yankees have only C.C. Sabathia, who is second in WAR.)
The Angels' 4 starters compiled a 39.5 WAR over the last 3 years compared to the Phillies starters' 59.7 (and White Sox 47.5).
The Downs deal - The Orange County Register
- Downs is reportedly making 515 million for three years with this deal, but then he was making $4 million last year in Toronto.
- Another byproduct of Downs is the flexibility it gives Mike Scioscia to put Hisanori Takahashi in the rotation if/when Scott Kazmir needs to be replaced.
- The Angels fired scouting director Eddie Bane ostensibly for poor drafts – apparently they wanted him to take Mike Trout with the 125th pick in the draft instead of the 25th. Ric Wilson replaces him, and now loses a second-round pick because of the Downs trade.
I thought about doing a full-blown FJM on this Mark Whicker post, but decided not to waste the time and just throw a couple of his bullet points in here. Although he makes an interesting point about how the Downs signing may impact the Angels starting rotation, the other two comments don't make much sense...
- I'm pretty sure the first point is just a typo, Downs isn't making 515 million anythings over 3 years. The deal will pay Downs $5M per year for three years, not the 171 million Quatloos Whicker thinks the Triskelions would be paying him through 2013.
- Takahashi started 12 games last season for the Mets. In those twelve games he compiled a 4-4 record and a 5.01 ERA. As a reliever, Takahashi went 8-for-8 in saves and had a 2.01 ERA, finishing the season as the Mets closer. Obviously, this is all based on one season and just 122 innings pitched (64.2 as a starter, 57.1 in relief), so Takahashi may be a good replacement in the rotation if Kazmir continues to suck.
- The third point about the draft completely baffles me. Scott Downs is a Type "A" free agent meaning any team that signs him would forfeit their first-round pick to the the Blue Jays. However, the Angels' first round pick is protected, so the Blue Jays will receive the Angels' second round pick. What I can't figure out is, what does any of this have to do with Eddie Bane being fired?
December 15 - BR Bullpen
1886 - The American Association meets and ratifies the new rules. It also approves the new clause that allows a club to reserve a player for as long as it wants, not just for next year's contract. Just 21 years after the Civil War and baseball legalizes slavery.
1920 - The National League reveals a most telling statistic, pointing out the changes in the game: the use of 27,924 baseballs during the season, an increase of 10,248 over 1919. Another telling statistic? The major leagues now go through between 113,000 and 160,000 balls per season. I'm not sure what this "tells".
1980 - Dave Winfield (.276, 20, 87) becomes the highest-paid player in the history of sports. The former Padre signs a ten-year free agent deal with Yankees worth a record $16 million (or roughly $4M less than Carl Crawford will earn EACH YEAR of his new contract).
1994 - The owners approve a salary cap plan by a vote of 25-3, but agree to delay implementing it so that another round of talks with the players can be held as the strike remains unresolved. I wonder how that's working out?
2009 - Commissioner Bud Selig announces that he will chair a 14-person committee to analyze ways to improve baseball's on-field product. The group will look at issues such as the pace of the game, umpiring, instant replay and possible rule changes. Any findings by this committee will be completely ignored by Selig who thinks the pace of the game is fine, the umpires are doing a fantastic job, instant replay won't improve the rulings on the field, and rule changes are for wimps.
Happy b-day:
1950 - Chuck Hockenbery, pitcher
1967 - Mo Vaughn, infielder; All-Star
0 recs | 201 comments
I miss these, makes me feel the season is fast approaching
Sinatrasratpack - December 15, 2010
Ah the cool refreshing taste of halolinks.
Thanks for posting, it almost feels like baseball season again.
RexTookMyStash - December 15, 2010
[VOICE type=“Homer Simpson”]
Mmmmmm…. Halolinks…. ooooooohhhhhh
[/VOICE]
red floyd - December 15, 2010
Oh herro, harorinks!
What a shurprise!
Good to see these back again.
Commander_Nate - December 15, 2010
They also think white cleats are cool
Interesting analysis. Couple comments/questions:
1. Kazmir and GMJ contracts are so painful, though hopefully Kaz bounces back this year. Still think the guy can return to the form we received him in. GMJ….well…..just ouch.
2. The change in WAR is surprising. However, maybe this is due to my relative ignorance with the WAR stat, but since Beltre is an everyday player, doesnt HE give us a better shot (i.e. 4.5 WAR everyday is better than 7.5 once a week???)? Or does WAR take into account that Lee only “replaces” once every 5-6 games? (i would really appreciate some clarification here!)
3. How sad it must be to be an A’s fan right now….speculating on how much better other teams would be had they signed cliffmas. Here’s to the A’s moving to Portland….their core group of fans deserve better.
autry's cowboys - December 15, 2010
About the Beltre-Lee WAR comparison...
I’m curious to see what our combined WAR was for 3B last year. I would not be surprised at all if it was negative. Beltre can be counted on for 4.5 war and is capable of 6+ if he’s having a great season. I wouldn’t be surprised if his WAR added to what we didn’t get from 3B last year has as much of an impact as Lee would have.
Commander_Nate - December 15, 2010
I'm too GA to find Callapso's WAR with just us
But we got about 0.6 WAR combined from Wood, Izzy and Callapso last year
Epic Dean - December 15, 2010
Quick look
Wood: -1.8
Izturis: 1.1
Frandsen: -0.4
Callaspo: 0.5
Quinlan: -0.7
Obviously, this isn’t purely 3B, nor is it purely with the Angels (Callaspo) but it gives some indication of the complete lack of production received at this station.
George Kaplan - December 15, 2010
Well, that's -1.3 combined
So assuming an average Beltre year of 4.5, that’s a net gain of 5.8 WAR if the Angels sign him. If he has another solid MVP-type season of around 6, then the gain is something like 7.3 WAR. This little bit of math should be enough to indicate to the FO and anyone else how badly we need Beltre.
Also going on assumption here: (Beltre @ 4.5) + (Kendry @ 4) = 8.5. That’s a pretty significant improvement right there. Add in a full year of Haren and Bourjos, the acquisition of Takahashi and Downs, and some variable improvement from everyone else and it’s not difficult to see that a 2011 Angels’ team that has Adrian Beltre is likely to gain 10+ wins over the 2010 team.
Commander_Nate - December 15, 2010
That looks great!
I am a little lost though still on a WAR for a pitcher versus everyday player….am I just missing something extremely obvious here?
autry's cowboys - December 15, 2010 via mobile
Not sure
That’s beyond my level of sabre knowledge.
Commander_Nate - December 15, 2010
Projecting Beltre to give you 7 WAR is nuts.
Bourjos you should have less faith in. Hes likely to be average -17 with the bat and +15 with the glove or a 2 WAR player. Further you can only peg 2 more WAR to getting Kendry back since his replacements didn’t embarras themselves that badlyThe acquisitions of Downs and Takahashi only probably add 1 WAR total to your projections. Also you realize that 10 WAR above where you were last year is like a middling 85 WAR club right?
designatedforassignment - December 15, 2010
Stay with me here
(-1.3) + 4.5 = a total change of 5.8 WAR. Yes, 7 WAR is probably not likely, although somewhat possible. Yes, I realize all the other stuff you said as well – it’s not news to me.
This piece of shit team still won 80 games last year, which is a good year for some unfortunate clubs. Beltre along with the other additions/subtractions makes it pretty likely that 2011 will result in a good deal more wins.
I don’t know what the equation is for that, but there it is.
Commander_Nate - December 15, 2010
8 WAR below average + the 7 WAR you created + 2 WAR regression = 83 Win Team.... golf clap
designatedforassignment - December 15, 2010
I created 7 WAR?
I only claimed an estimate of 5.8 WAR in change from on position from one player. The rest are all based on career averages (albeit short careers in some cases) from other players. I’m not sure what you’re clapping for.
Commander_Nate - December 15, 2010
Obviously himself
Suboptimal - December 15, 2010
I was giving you your original 7 WAR and golf clapping for a 500 team. Try to keep up holmes.
designatedforassignment - December 15, 2010
Aww, cute!!!
You are still failing to point out where I created 7 WAR from one player. I made estimates based off the career numbers of several players. The largest of which was a CHANGE of 5.8 (which could totally vary). Unless you’ve never taken, like, a basic chem or science class, you should understand the property of “Delta” or change.
What I made are estimates, just like you. The difference is you think your shit doesn’t stink (and the funny thing is that I actually think your original article is pretty good).
Let me know when math equations and sabremetrics on a team basis do more than explain the past and actually predict the future, because at that point I’ll go to Vegas and find a new occupation. Until then, congrats on winning the internet, bro!
Commander_Nate - December 15, 2010
yeah, no
stranahanahan - December 16, 2010
Convincing argument
Jesus Christ, what’s been going on around here lately? Where’s PhiSlamma with his puppy dog Photoshop skills?
Commander_Nate - December 16, 2010
Just critiquing the image
I’m an AN guy, you expect anything less of me??? :)
stranahanahan - December 16, 2010
Fair enough
Commander_Nate - December 16, 2010
So you are saying you didn't say this
designatedforassignment - December 16, 2010
"If" is a conditional statement
And I have freely admitted here and elsewhere that it’s unlikely that Beltre puts up such a high WAR number again. It is, however, in the realm of possibility which is why I included it.
If you’d adjust your eyes a few lines down in the same post, you will see this:
That is a far more likely number, and in the same range that myself and numerous others have used in Beltre discussions. I also started with the same number in the same post in the sentence right before the one you quoted, so I’m not sure how you missed it twice.
Commander_Nate - December 16, 2010
could it be
because he’s a cherry picking douche nozzle?
it certainly appears that way, at least from my vantage point
2pintsofbooze - December 16, 2010
Yea, that about says it, and you know
the Halo’s are going to kick their butts regardless.
Most folks who follow baseball see the A’s as being pretty weak and not really a serious player in the post-season to come. But, I guess some of their fringe contingent can have some fun debating with us here—that is until Rev has had enough of their foolishness and casts them off to their little NoCal dung heap.
Raaddad - December 16, 2010
except Kevin Goldstein who just said on twitter that the A's are the real longterm threat to the rangers
but yeah most folks who follow baseball.
designatedforassignment - December 16, 2010
feeling vindicated
from a Goldstein tweet?
things must’ve been much worse up there in Oakland than I originally thought.
2pintsofbooze - December 16, 2010
Duh its a more likely number. I was giving you the ridiculous number to show that you still aren't even close to the division even while wishcasting.
designatedforassignment - December 16, 2010
I'm sorry I linked to your post
Although the post was interesting, you’ve taken anything positive away from it by coming here and acting like a douche.
From now on I’ll be sure to only link to articles posted by real Front Page writers, not wannabe fuck-sticks.
WiHaloFan - December 16, 2010
what can we do to make you stop writing here? name your price…
2pintsofbooze - December 16, 2010
meh this is fun... I mean you are suppose to be the educated Angles fans
and you don’t even know that your team lost 10 million dollars last year… lolz
designatedforassignment - December 16, 2010
I don't know who PL78 is
and I don’t know what your guys’ past arguments have been about. But I agree with everything he has said.
2pintsofbooze - December 16, 2010
what that the post belonged here instead of AN?
designatedforassignment - December 16, 2010
Actually, yeah, we did know that
Kinda discussed it here when the docs leaked. Congrats on being late to the party!
2 INTERNETZ 4 U!!!!!
Commander_Nate - December 16, 2010
He might have been replying to me
For some reason I didn’t know they lost money last season.
WiHaloFan - December 16, 2010
I don't think it was discussed much
And at the time it was called a “projected loss” if I remember. Either way it doesn’t matter – he still gets another coupon.
Commander_Nate - December 16, 2010
yup.
designatedforassignment - December 16, 2010
Not according to your FP poster.
designatedforassignment - December 16, 2010
What’s this, then?
I’ll give Wi the benefit of the doubt here. He’s generally less active than Rev (no offense Wi) and this was a fanshot, which sometimes don’t get much attention around here.
Commander_Nate - December 16, 2010
Great you had a fanshot. You still have people writing on your FP who don't know.
designatedforassignment - December 16, 2010
You claimed we didn't know about it
Then went on to insult this entire blog. You’ve been proven wrong in that a lot of us did know about it.
Commander_Nate - December 16, 2010
just not the ones on the fp?
designatedforassignment - December 16, 2010
Seriously?
You’re giving people shit because I didn’t read one article in the OC Register claiming the Angels lost money? I’m supposed to know EVERYTHING written by EVERYONE? Hey guess what…I don’t know the starting rotation of the AAA team! If you want to give me shit because of this, that’s fine, but don’t group everyone together because I’m didn’t read that article.
Assuming a group is a certain way based on one individual is foolish. If the people here thought that way, they’d think all A’s fans were small-brained, big-mouthed assclowns.
But we know better.
WiHaloFan - December 16, 2010
why can't we all just get along?
for the love of Peter Griffin please ban dfa. wait, dfa dfa! ha
Halos in DE - December 17, 2010
$10 million loss?
What kind of loss?
Was this a net loss on the Income Statement? An operating loss?
Or was this from the Statement of Cash Flows? (i.e. Net cash used by operating activities).
Does this loss include CAPEX?
XYZ123 - December 17, 2010
Well, at least you admit to being a bag of douche...
…like apparently half the readers at your own teams’ site feel. I guess that earns you some level of respect. Wait, no it doesn’t. Arrogance and false authority deserve all the ridicule in the world and you’ve got ’em droves. You are the FOX/MSNBC of AN.
My new name for you: designatedfuckingasshole
Wear it, DFA.
Commander_Nate - December 16, 2010
Nate, I have a theory here on this guy, here me out on this
I think he is actually Halowood.
Here are the facts as we currently know them with some added speculation;
-Halowood has dissappeared
-Halowood, like this guy, has a tendency to cry foul (or, in other words, pitch a bitch fit) when someone critiques his writings/theories, and yet has no problem being a douche to others when he deems it ok
-Halowood’s recent postings have created a lot of backlash towards him, perhaps leading to his questioning of if he is backing the right team and should perhaps jump to an AL West foe since the HH community doesn’t value his talents as much as he thinks it should
-going to another AL West team makes sense since he’s already familiar with the division and his newfound team’s division rivals
-DFA did an exhaustive writeup on the Angels, even though he is an A’s fan, leading to his own fellow A’s fans questioning why he did it
-Writing an exhaustive post on his new team’s rivals makes sense since he is so familiar with that team and longs to keep writing about them even though he has broken up with them. This is his way of staying close to the Halos, kind of like a guy still talking to his ex’s friends to keep tabs on whats she’s been up to
and for now, thats all I got. its a theory that has legs though, if you are willing to consider the facts.
2pintsofbooze - December 16, 2010
LOL
You are ariot brother
Raaddad - December 16, 2010
You realize that Ive been posting on AN since 07 on this name and I am one of the most rec'ed posters there right?
designatedforassignment - December 16, 2010
first off: it was a joke dumbshit
and second, who gives a shit how long you’ve been there?
although I will say that being one of the most rec’d posters on a sports blog for the Oakland A’s is pretty impressive to me. it shows me that you’ve attained a level of loserdom that I thought was only imaginable at a Star Trek convention.
keep taking count of your recs on your spreadsheet and one day I promise it will get you laid (fingers crossed).
until then, FUCK OFF.
2pintsofbooze - December 16, 2010
Dude this is so becoming my sig.
designatedforassignment - December 16, 2010
sweet
spread the 2pints gospel to all. I have no doubt there will be many who agree with it
2pintsofbooze - December 16, 2010
Want a cookie?
hauldog - December 17, 2010
Question
Does this include the rec’s that are covered by the tarp?
hauldog - December 17, 2010
Meh... if youre going to throw up shitty arguments then yes I will be.
Kinda like you do here.
designatedforassignment - December 16, 2010
Shitty arguments...
…like your cherry picking and out-of-context quoting above?
Or how about your uppity replies to Brody and Suboptimal below where, among other things, you seem to claim that you can predict several years into the future?
Commander_Nate - December 16, 2010
Im not cherry picking anything. I was being generous to your team by giving them additional WAR
I can predict the future to the extent that I know who is going to be arbitration eligible and a FA. If you aren’t aware of these things, its freely available on Cots.
designatedforassignment - December 16, 2010
No, you were
You completely ignored the rest of the my original comment where I went with a lower number just so you could use the higher, outlying number to try and make your case look better. That’s cherry picking, dude.
I know what Cots is, and yeah you can use that to forecast what you think might happen, but you do not know know what will happen. I’m willing to bet you didn’t have Crawford going to Boston and Werth going to DC for the money they got; nor did you have Lee going to Philly. Those are just three examples from this winter.
You wrote a pretty good article about what the future might hold, but you do not know what it will hold. You’re here claiming that you do and being pretty snarky about it. That shit doesn’t fly here and that’s why we’re throwing it back in your face.
Commander_Nate - December 16, 2010
Reading comprehension fail? From below
Im saying without intervening stupid on the part of another GM (and there really is no superstars available to you in the future FA market, looking at Cots) or Cowart or Chevez Clarke pull a Trout you guys are screwed. Its a pretty nuanced expectation of the future.
I don’t think you understand the war number. If you get Beltre I was giving you credit for 7 WAR bump, not the more reasonable number that you cite. It helps the Angels, and does not make my case better.
designatedforassignment - December 16, 2010
You're claiming the other additions can make up 3-5
stranahanahan - December 16, 2010
Your point?
Scott Downs : 1.8 WAR (2010); 1.0 WAR (2009); 3.0 WAR (2008)
There’s at least 1 WAR for next year.
Hisanori Takahashi : 1.3 WAR (2010)
Only 1 season, but it’s fairly safe to guess he can be around 1 again.
Kendry Morales : 1.0 WAR (Partial 2010); 3.9 WAR (2009)
He played about a 3rd of the season last year so you can probably say he’s worth 2-3 more next year if all goes well.
So, taking conservative estimates: Downs (1) + Takahashi (1) + Morales (3) = 5 additional WAR.
It appears that adding multiple quality players can add multiple wins to a team. We got here without even delving into other players the will be spending their first full season on the team next year. Take Napoli’s WAR out of Kendry’s addition if you want and you’re still at or above 3 WAR.
Commander_Nate - December 16, 2010
Q at -0.7
I don’t believe it! He is irreplacable.
Brody - December 15, 2010
Beltre is unlikely to have another 6 WAR season for anyone moving forward. Lee likely will have a 6 WAR season next year.
The reason why Lee is a bigger upgrade is because Callaspo will be about a 2 WAR player next year at third replacing Wood, so you are only improving 2 to 2.5 WAR. Kazmir is still going to be in the rotation.
designatedforassignment - December 15, 2010
Glad you liked my analysis... Some answers:
2: WAR is a counting stat and is meant to show value regardless of whether a player is a pitcher or is a hitter. Now there are some questions about whether WAR is good for valuing relievers and the like but thats mostly at the margins, so at the end of the day a 7.5 WAR player is better than 4.5 WAR player all contexts.
3 You realize the point that I was making in my article is that you guys are screwed worse than the A’s right? In order to get even close to competing this coming year you need Moreno to say “Hey its ok if I lose 20m bucks this year.” The A’s at least have a significant amount of variance with average young pitching that could step up and pitch well and the bullpen that could go from close your eyes to pretty damn good overnight. The Angles have established and declining players who still are projected to be about 8 games behind the Rangers. Furthermore, both the A’s and the Rangers have a better under control core group of players for the foreseeable future.
designatedforassignment - December 15, 2010
How much does Moreno have to spend...
to lose 20M bucks this year?
I’ve been wondering (not from just you) where people are getting their financial figures. If the Angels have a $130M payroll budget and decide to spend $200M on their payroll in 2011, will they lose $70M or just make less profit?
How do people know how much the team is making or can afford to spend?
WiHaloFan - December 16, 2010
The team reported that they lost $10m last year with a ~120m payroll. Without any changes they are already at 132 ish
signing either Lee or Beltre will require jettisoning payroll or taking a 20m plus loss
designatedforassignment - December 16, 2010
Link please.
I’ve never heard or read they lost money last season.
WiHaloFan - December 16, 2010
Here you go.
link I wish our owner was cool with losing that kind of coin.
designatedforassignment - December 16, 2010
I thought he was
I mean, he ok’d the Ben Sheets $10m contract, right?
2pintsofbooze - December 16, 2010
The A's still made money last year.
designatedforassignment - December 16, 2010
and fielded a shit team but if you are okay with that carry on.
hauldog - December 17, 2010
Thanks.
(you’re still a douche).
WiHaloFan - December 16, 2010
Your welcome.
designatedforassignment - December 16, 2010
thanks for the answer
2 but i guess where i am confused is how is it possible for a guy with a 7.5 WAR that plays once every 4-6 days to help you more than a guy with a 4.5 WAR that brings that WAR everyday. If it is calculating wins, shouldnt it be the number of overall wins throughout a season? Im sure King Felix has a WAR of 6-8 (no clue acually), but what does that do for a team that has the rest of the team with guys at 2 and below? It still produces a losing product.
3. I dont believe, for a second, that we are “screwed more than the A’s”. The A’s will always be screwed with their white cleats and 1980s yellow-green-Gibson-bashing uniforms. Excuse my statistical ignorance, but I really dont need anything to back up that up. Projections are merely palm reading as far as Im concerned….a la the free spending Mariners. Projections are not always right….hence the reason still make money betting. I have no idea how you guys made money last year with an average home attendence of 133 people.
autry's cowboys - December 17, 2010
I can't believe that AN post turned into a 20 page flame war over one comment.
It’s totally taking away from the fact that the A’s will win the AL west next season. :-P
RexTookMyStash - December 15, 2010
difference between HH and AN
Over there they have a whole judge and jury system for banning people, they send out notices to offending poster and chalk up negative points and have a forgiveness system if there is no accrual of more negativity after a few months.
Here it is like Argentina under Pinochet. If you are a dick, you just disappear one day.
The results: We don’t have self-entitled blowhards staying around so long that they ossify into predictable, protected platforms aimed against other posters.
Rev Halofan - December 15, 2010
Actually, I think it's more like a film where Argentina
is taken over by the Marx Brothers
Raaddad - December 15, 2010
I would not want to be dictator
of any country whose government I could overthrow.
Rev Halofan - December 15, 2010
(Off subject) How is the foot doing btw, Rev?
(See when you start getting oldish like me you start being interested and concerned with other people’s physical health. Next stop: Denny’s Senior’s Meal)
Raaddad - December 15, 2010
I ditched the cane two days after that game
Fine now, dog has yet to tackle me again.
Rev Halofan - December 15, 2010
Good news
Everybody is healing up—even Kendry (I sure hope)
Raaddad - December 15, 2010
Speaking of which, are we going to get together with AN for another game?
red floyd - December 15, 2010
Good idea
Rev should bring the cane along with him anyway, to wave at those guys again lol
As I remember, we weren’t able to hook up with Nate and some of the other HH folk somehow that time.
Raaddad - December 15, 2010
In Soviet Russia...
Halos in DE - December 17, 2010
I read the link from the A's site yesterday
The comments are hilarious. Hundreds of comments on whether this post belonged on their site, and quite an array of name-calling.
As to the merits of the post, I have some issues with the analysis. First, in order to make his case, the poster compares Lee to Kazmir, thus assuming that the Angels will let Kazmir rack up negative WAR over the course of another season, while at the same time assuming that the Angels already have 2 WAR available at third base through Izturis and Callaspo. The poster thus would base a multi-year contract for potentially $150 million on the anticipated performances of two players (Izturis and Kazmir), who are both signed through only next season. That makes no sense.
If we are to analyze the actual merits of a long-term contract — in this case, contracts for 5 to 7 years — it cannot be based on the team’s depth chart for one season. The better approach is to calculate the likely WAR that will be provided by the free agent and measure it against the cost of the player and the risk involved.
Here, if we use last year’s stats, Cliff Lee had 4.3 WAR and Adrian Beltre had 6.1 WAR. If we take a three-year view, Lee had 16.6 WAR (an average of 5.5) and Beltre had 10.7 WAR (an average of 3.6). If we take a five-year view, Lee had 18.4 WAR (an average of 3.7) and Beltre had 18.0 WAR (an average of 3.6). If we discount the best and worst year of each player in the past five seasons, Lee had 11.7 WAR (an average of 3.9) and Beltre had 10.8 WAR (an average of 3.6). These numbers raise serious issues with any analysis that suggests that Lee is worth at least $10 million more per season than Beltre, at more years (and thus greater risk).
Second, even if we were to analyze the benefits for next season, it would be incorrect to assume that we will allow Kazmir to perform at the same level for an entire season. Scioscia already has stated that Kazmir will need to earn his spot in the rotation next year.
Third, this is a pointless hypothetical, because we had no chance of signing Lee. The Yankees offered more years and money to get him, and he went back to Philly anyway. So it will not be a mistake if we pay $75MM for 5 years to get Beltre and his 3.5-4.0 WAR per year at third base.
Brody - December 15, 2010
Um.... no
First lets use Cliff Lee’s real WAR ( FIP based it was 7.1 WAR) rather than pretending like the months he spent pitching in Seattle didn’t exist. Oh yeah, btw, that destroys your entire analysis since all your averages are wrong.
Furthermore you have no viable AAA pitcher on the farm that is any good who can take his place. Your best AAA starter was a 33 year old journeyman.
Please get your facts right when you criticize others.
designatedforassignment - December 15, 2010
Looks like someone's never heard of Trevor Bell
He put up 1.3 WAR filling in for Kazmir while you weren’t looking. The 4.27 xFIP is mediocre, but the peripherals indicate that he could sustain it in the rotation. He’ll probably be taking over the fifth spot when Kazmir flames out in Spring Training.
Does 1.3 WAR seem a little high for Bell? Sure it does. That’s why FIP-based WAR is generally suspect. You know, the same FIP-based WAR that over-values Lee by about three wins compared to the BR definition.
Suboptimal - December 15, 2010
You realize that Jung was better than Bell in AAA right?
If youre great hope is a dude that put up a ERA of 6 then thats great. His tRAr is 4.88. Hes not any good. Also BBref’s Pitcher WARs double count defense, which is why no one that is worth their salt uses them.
designatedforassignment - December 15, 2010
He's no great hope
Merely illustration of the replacement principle, which you seem to have neglected here.
Suboptimal - December 15, 2010
No I followed the "Contracts Play Principal"
designatedforassignment - December 15, 2010
It's possible
But then again, Kazmir’s contract might be playing in the same place as GMJ’s next year: in someone else’s minor-league system.
Look, I actually have no issues with your overall assessment other than the paragraph about Lee and Kazmir. You take for granted numbers that I consider highly optimistic. You also sweep the enormous liability under the rug. It’s just not a good argument.
Ironically, I might think even more favorably of the A’s than you do at the moment. Some good luck, a surprise season from a random dude picked off the scrap heap, and I can see 2006 all over again. Spreadsheets can tell you the odds, but metrics and projections are just averages, and reality is highly contingent.
Suboptimal - December 15, 2010
I don't sweep enormous liability under the rug. I recognize that it will all come crashing down in 3 or 4 years
but by that point youve cleared enough bad contracts off the books/ have no chance to compete that it doesn’t even matter.
designatedforassignment - December 15, 2010
I read your analysis on AN, and thought it was a good read.
It was well thought out and written. See, us Halo fans can be cordial and polite to visitors from AN.
halofolife - December 15, 2010
glad you liked it.
designatedforassignment - December 15, 2010
what the fuck is with this astrology bullshit?
Bill James or Grant Lewi, choose one.
Rev Halofan - December 16, 2010
Its an inside AN joke.
designatedforassignment - December 16, 2010
Thank you
stranahanahan - December 16, 2010
Well I'm glad someone can see 3-4 years into the future
You must have seen that Dan Haren acquisition coming from the moment he was shipped off the Arizona, right?
We’re not stupid. Most of us understand the position the Angels are in right now, and it’s not great. It requires immediate attention, but you can’t prove that it’s irremediable.
You’re telling us to go nuts in the short term because the long-term situation is fubar. How does that necessarily follow? Couldn’t your short-term solution lead to a self-fulfilling prophecy?
Suboptimal - December 15, 2010
Haren acquisition is an outlier
You guys fooled an under-qualified GM into giving you an SP worth dollars and yet paid pennies. We’re going to be angry about that deal for awhile…
stranahanahan - December 16, 2010
Your right there could be a Fking A trade
Dan Haren was that. They also fired the GM that made that trade. Predicting a superstar to fall in your lap for peanuts is absolutely the wrong way to plan a team. Yes making a win now signing does lead to future budget restraints, but the problem is that you don’t have a core to speak of moving forward. Who is your core? Trout? Haren will be here in 2013 as will Santana, Downs, Morales, and Callaspo. It will be all of their last years. So basically for 2014 you have Trout. Good luck with that.
designatedforassignment - December 16, 2010
jeeeeeez
no wonder nobody likes you on your blog
2pintsofbooze - December 16, 2010
Some funny analysis here
Brody’s crtiique of the analysis is pretty good. The problem with the analysis is that he makes the following assumptions:
1. Cliff Lee is worth 6.8 WAR- He has exceeded this number only once, in his CY year. His second best year was 5.0 WAR.
2. Scott Kazmir is worth
0.8 WAR (or the 5th rotation spot is worth that)I’m not going to defend Kaz as he was simply awful last year, but the assumption that last year was his true performance level is probably a bad assumption. Between ‘05 and ’08 Kaz ranged between 3.5 and 5.8 WAR. Even if he is done as a pitcher, then the Angels go to Trevor Bell or someone else. It’s unlikely that they get the kind of terrible performance out of their 5th starter that they got out of Kaz this year.3. The current Angel 3B are worth 2.0 WAR- In order to make the case that Lee is the better target, the poster assumed that Kaz was as bad as he was last year. Yet, he doesn’t make the same assumption about 3B. As Kaplan noted above, among the guys who played 3B for the Halos last year, they netted a
0.6 WAR (I removed Quinlan from the equation since he only played 1 Inning there). If you assume that Kaz is as bad as last year, why wouldn’t you assume that the 3B are as bad as last year. If you limit the discussion to Izturis and Callaspo, you still end up with only 0.6 WAR from last year in about 470 PA. Izturis is injury prone and I don’t know how good Callaspo is.This is actually probably the best assumption of this group because it appears to be some sort of projection based on a composite of what Beltre has done in the past. The problem is that he didn’t do the same with any of the other players he’s looking at.4. That Beltre is worth 4-4.5 WAR
I’m open to the argument that Lee would have been a better pickup than Beltre (I lean toward the Beltre side, but not enthusiastically). However, if you want to make this kind of argument using WAR, base it on fair projections going forward. Alternatively, base it entirely on what the players did last year (that’s not as strong of an argument, but at least you’re comparing apples to apples).
In 2010, the Angels would have been better off with Beltre than Lee. Here’s the math:
Beltre had 6.1 WAR while Angel 3B had -0.6 WAR (if someone has the WAR on just time at 3B, please reply with a correction here). The difference is 7.4 WAR
Lee had a 4.3 WAR while Kazmir had a -0.8 WAR. The difference is 5.1 WAR.
This is still just a best guess scenario for a few reasons. In addition to replacing Kaz, Lee would have replaced some of the innings thrown by relievers. Some of those relievers had negative WAR (Shields primarily as most of the rest were at -0.1 or greater). I think he would have replaced a net slightly positive WAR among the relievers which decreases the difference on Kazmir, but it’s probably close to 0.
jco - December 15, 2010
Learn what strikethrough is and how not to use it to emphasize points in your thingy.
PhiSlamma - December 15, 2010
It's SBN's "shorthand formatting".
red floyd - December 15, 2010
Accidental strikethrough
I had no intention of including the strikethrough and had no idea it would be posted until it was posted. For the purpose of the post, please ignore.
jco - December 15, 2010
Exactly. SBN's shorthands are braindead.
red floyd - December 15, 2010
In retrospect the Angels had a better chance of signing Lee than the Yankers did...
…because none of our fans spit on his wife.
Fred Fredrix - December 15, 2010
Too funny, and I wonder how much Yankee fan considers that as a relevant component of the Lee signing debacle
over at Pinstripe Alley. The irony is also that their vaunted “zealous fans” became a little too “zealous” and helped botch the deal. (That’s just pitiful and monstrous behavior, really, not zealous fanaticism, but still something to be expected in many eastern ballparks—the homes of the so-called passionate fans)
Raaddad - December 15, 2010
"passionate fans"
Whenever I hear the national media talk about “passionate fans”, I know they mean “a$$holes”.
thetooth - December 15, 2010
nice of you to post
The Angels Financials link Wihalo. Except your like 3days to late… thanks for stealing my post.
C.A._Rep_Los_ANGELS - December 15, 2010 via mobile
You can be one of the...
“WiHaloFan is an idiot” votes.
WiHaloFan - December 15, 2010
lol
Nah I’m not a bitter crybaby, I’m just a smart ass lol. I don’t mind :)
C.A._Rep_Los_ANGELS - December 15, 2010 via mobile
^ important distinction ^
Rev Halofan - December 15, 2010
and a fine line?
rmhalofan - December 15, 2010
Lee would have been a great addition
But, in the end, next to impossible to get him. He wanted to go to Philly. I don’t think any other team really stood a chance once they got into the fray.
tizzidy19 - December 15, 2010
Beltre would be a significant improvement
But we still have Rodney blowing saves on the back end.
Just sign Soriano, send Fernando to cap-sideways-rehab, and have ultimate bullpen of destruction. Oh and obviously Beltre, he is the only decent 3B available for a while.
PhiSlamma - December 15, 2010
what is missing in all this analysis of the WAR
is the cost.
Debating whether Lee or Beltre winning the WAR is great but also take into consideration the WAR per millions spent.
Beltre is significantly cheaper than Lee would be and is less of a threat of injury throughout the length of the contract
Sinatrasratpack - December 15, 2010
All this analysis
And we had no shot at signing him. He wanted to play in Phillie and money wasn’t the deciding factor.
HungryHunter - December 15, 2010
Besides which...
… the Angels’ big need was in LF, not at starting pitching. They weren’t going to give Crawford that big a contract, where would anyone think they’d suddenly have more money for Lee when they already have a theoretically stocked rotation?
SoftballHuman - December 15, 2010
ya but
If we sign Lee then we can package a trade with Santana, and Napoli for instance for someone great like David Wright. That’s why it would have been nice to get him.
C.A._Rep_Los_ANGELS - December 15, 2010 via mobile
What makes you think the Mets would make that trade? Wright’s a bonafide star, while Santana and Nap are good but replaceable players. Besides which, Santana and Nap are, combined, going to be more expensive than Wright in 2012 (perhaps even this season, depending on Napoli’s arb hearing).
Beltre’ll fill a big hole, he’ll be cheaper than Lee, and we won’t have to give up Santana or Nap for him.
SoftballHuman - December 15, 2010
geeze fool
1st of all don’t get your panties in a bunch. And
2nd of all, it was just something I threw out there, I’m not saying that was the “take it or leave it” package.. I’m not sure if the Mets care about money since they’re rich. I’m sure they just want great players.
Ya beltre would fill a big hole, whenever we F’ing sign him. I’m not going to assume we do anything anymore until it happens.. oh yeah your right, we can’t trade Naps because then Big Mike won’t have anybody to keep Jeffys seat warm on the bench.
C.A._Rep_Los_ANGELS - December 15, 2010 via mobile
I'm so glad
I’m not an A’s fan
2pintsofbooze - December 15, 2010
im more glad
To not be a cubs or pirates fan lol
C.A._Rep_Los_ANGELS - December 15, 2010 via mobile
I never participate in polls has 37 votes.
Reminds me of the Epimenides paradox.
Epimenides was a Cretan who once famously remarked “All Cretans are Liars”.
This was used about 2000 years later in the Star Trek episode “”http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0708432/quotes?qt0406610" target="new">I, Mudd"
red floyd - December 15, 2010
Link is borked.
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0708432/quotes?qt0406610
red floyd - December 15, 2010
God we have nothing to talk about
Brody - December 15, 2010
For reals, yo.
Commander_Nate - December 15, 2010
anyone feel like
putting together a financial analysis of the next 5 years for the A’s?
then instead of talking about those figures, we can talk about how someone disrespected someone else for 500 comments.
yeah we have nothing to talk about, but it could be worse.
2pintsofbooze - December 15, 2010
So what's the next concert event?
lol
We’re looking into Linkin Park tickets
Raaddad - December 15, 2010
I hadn't thought about it
the RW tix just fell into my lap, otherwise I would’nt have been able to afford it. I’m always on the lookout for a good show though. it seems most of the bigger acts come around during the summer, but there are always the smaller venues, which usually offers a better experience.
since you seem pretty old school, let me recommend you to go and see Wolfmother. saw them a couple months back at the House of Blues and they are seriously awesome. me and my buddy took our dads and both dads felt it was as close as you could get to a 70s rock show. they compared them to Deep Purple, with some flavors of Zeppelin. they probably won’t be back in the area for a while since they are from Australia and were just here, but I tell anyone I know who is into classic rock to go see them when they get the chance.
2pintsofbooze - December 15, 2010
Ticket prices are ridiculous
and all the good seats to most major shows are bought up by industry types who just sit there texting and not getting off on the show at all. It’s a travesty.
That band sounds pretty cool and the House of Blues is a great place and a great deal as well.
Yes I am old school but I’m always excited by new bands who “rock.” Right now I am turned on by Florence and the Machine, who combine ’80’s with ’10’s with German cabaret or something. You never know, and interest in everything just keeps you young, or at least, youngish…
Raaddad - December 15, 2010
I passed on 91x Wrex the Halls down here last weekend
Just because pit tickets were outrageous and sold out quickly, leaving only bleacher seats available.
I love Bad Religion, I’ve seen Jimmy Eat World before, and I figured Smashing Pumpkins and Anberlin might have been pretty good live, but there was no way I was paying to sit down at a show. No way.
Commander_Nate - December 15, 2010
what were pit tickets going for?
I was at a Jack Johnson concert in Irvine a couple months back on the lawn and people were getting gnarly on other people for standing up. it was crazy. things were getting thrown, people were walking down like 30 feet to go ask someone to sit down. f’ing ridiculous. yeah, the music is mellow, but its a concert!!
2pintsofbooze - December 15, 2010
Interesting
It depends on the venue. Weezer at Universal—everyone stood up at their seats the entire time dancing and swaying and waving and all that shit. You can’t keep a good rocker down and I’m sure Jack J would have been pissed if he knew people were not allowed to “boogie” to his excellent tunage. Usually it’s just record execs and burned out flamers who hit the decks or lapse into seat-bound immobility.
Raaddad - December 15, 2010
saw Weezer
in July at the free concert they did on the sand in Huntington. it was great. got there late and it was packed, but a friend of mine found Vanilla Ice’s VIP pass in a cab earlier that day, so we ended up right up front. sometimes things just work out.
and I was thinking the same thing at the JJ concert about how pissed he would be if he knew people were being that lame and actually screaming at people for standing and dancing.
people be crazy yo
2pintsofbooze - December 15, 2010
Vanilla Ice's VIP pass!!??? Wow.
Too funny. That day sounds like a great concept for a screenplay or comedy show or something.
It’s hip to say oh the older Weezer is better, but hey, I like some of the newer more melodic stuff: “Pork and Beans,” “Hash Pipe,” etc. I even think “The Girl Got Hot” is a riot. What can I say—I grew up on the Beatles and Stones….and yes, Floyd.
Raaddad - December 15, 2010
All along the undertow was strengthening it's hold...
Commander_Nate - December 15, 2010
yep
the one and only Ice Ice Baby! the pass had his picture on it and everything. we were laughing about it all day and night and were so stoked to have it considering it got us so close to the stage. the only bummer is my friend who found it ended up losing it after she got super wasted after the show. I’m sure someone else found it and got an equal amount of hilarity from it though.
and its always hip to say you like a bands earlier stuff. but who wants to be hip? I’d rather just like what I like, new or old.
2pintsofbooze - December 15, 2010
I can't believe that phony still gets VIP passes!
This efing culture—Sarah Palin is a published author. O ef it, I’m gonna go throw up now (or go back to grading papers…same result).
I always hated it (not) when my girlfiends got wasted during a concert…lol
Raaddad - December 15, 2010
we kept laughing
at the thought of him walking up to a VIP area without his pass and arguing with the bouncers that they should let him in saying “Do you know who I am??!!”
I still laugh about it to this day
2pintsofbooze - December 15, 2010
The only band I've ever made the big distinction with their earlier stuff was Kings of Leon
Not really a fan of their new stuff, and it more or less alienated the few fans they had prior (but from a pure dollars standpoint it was genius)
linkbruin - December 15, 2010
Yea, they say that about Muse also.
Of course, we all say that about U2.
I still like the Stones’ and the Beatles’ earlier stuff as well.
Raaddad - December 15, 2010
I love Muse
Past and current. The association with Twilight is unfortunate, but it wasn’t really of their own choosing.
linkbruin - December 15, 2010
and it was the best part of the film
I wonder if Muse had any idea the song was “sold” to the Twilight folks
Raaddad - December 15, 2010
I'm sure the expansion of
their bank accounts has made them aware now.
anything to do with that Twi-bullshit makes money
2pintsofbooze - December 15, 2010
Good point
I just wonder how much they got and how much went into the record company’s pockets, and how much of a say the band had in the decision-making process
Raaddad - December 15, 2010
I doubt it was a tough sell, really
not only will the band be paid handsomely, they also help their exposure which will grow their fanbase in a pretty sought after market, kids in their teens/early 20’s, who can then be fans for years down the line.
hard to argue against a record company exec pitching that to the band, even if you think Twilight is retarded.
2pintsofbooze - December 15, 2010
I think for the newest movie they wrote a single explicitly for the movie; wasn't on their album
I’m sure they are more or less complicit now. It hasn’t changed a thing about their live shows, and it hasn’t come at the sake of their music…so I have no problem with it.
I dislike people that start to hate a band once they become popular just because they’re popular. Too many hipsters in this world.
linkbruin - December 15, 2010
Yeah, they had a new single just for Eclipse
Not a bad song, wasn’t their best though.
And yeah, hate Eclipse, but it’s getting Muse recognition and money. Tis all good
TheKingfish - December 15, 2010
Which song is it?
Raaddad - December 15, 2010
Dont ask
it literally ruins the song for you forever.
PhiSlamma - December 15, 2010
Well, it's not all bad
Ashley Greene is in this film too, isn’t she?
(Definitely the hottest vampire babe in film history)
Raaddad - December 15, 2010
I'm pretty sure it's "Neutron Star Collision"
linkbruin - December 15, 2010
I heard Weezer at Universal was awesome.
I was going to try to go, but I didn’t have any extra cash at the time, and my friend in Best Coast, who opened for them, couldn’t do anything for me either.
~MMP~ - December 15, 2010
Best Coast was great and dynamic
all-girl band (course I was waiting in the t-shirt line the whole time to score Son of Raaddad his freaking shirt so he could hang with his date.)
I loved the first act of Weezer—a ‘best of’ compilation which was very dynamic and fun. The 2nd act they played their whole Paladium (?) album from way back, which really sucked out the festive energy for some reason. The fans loved it though—but something died that had been really raging.
Raaddad - December 15, 2010
Like $90 if I remember correctly
They might have been more. That’s not too high compared to some other shows, but still, why would I pay that when I can (and have) previously spent like $30 at HoB or Soma for the ability to pit and push my way around within only a few yards of the stage? Factor in that there were like 4 other bands that I would have had to sit through and it just wasn’t worth it to me.
I had a similar lawn experience at blink-182’s reunion tour last fall down here in Chula Vista. I won tickets on the radio, so I was pretty stoked. Some like 17 year-old girl and her BF tried to get pissed at me and a bunch of other people because were standing up against the front railing. I was like, “look, this was my favorite band before you even knew they were a band, plus you’re on the friggin’ lawn where people do whatever they want, get over it!” Then a bunch of us formed a pit further back when they started playing their really old stuff…and still some people complained.
I don’t get it…it’s the lawn, not the luxury boxes at the opera hall.
Commander_Nate - December 15, 2010
That most have been an excellent show, though
Even bleacher seat folks would’ve been going wild.
Whatever happened to the days when teenage girls would all be on their feet screaming and rocking so loud you couldn’t hear shit? lol
I mean, that’s rock—not sitting in a seat waiting for the next event.
Raaddad - December 15, 2010
yeah, ticket prices are ridiculous
and the after-market value they have just makes the demand/prices that much higher. not only do ticket services buy up as much as they can in order to resell them, but there are also average Joes buying them up as well looking to capitalize on that secondary market. it sucks.
you are the 2nd person this week who has mentioned Florence and the Machine, meaning I need to check them out. just promise me the band isn’t Sasha Vujacic and his Slovenian buddy named Florence dancing around to some house music. :)
2pintsofbooze - December 15, 2010
Dog Days are Over
is a brilliant song and performance, but like any vaguely unique group/artist, opinions vary and are subjective. Florence is already bigtime mainstream—not her fault—the folks at Glee appropriated the song and made it into a beautiful but pedestrian version that ranks as one of their best. My family and I have a running argument about which version is better; I’m slowly persuading my kids (vs Mrs. Raaddad) that Florence offers more originality, passion and uniqueness (and she’s way hotter than the two girls who solo on the Glee version—which may influence my vote lol)
Raaddad - December 15, 2010
just googled some pics of her
I see what you mean.
got them playing on Pandora on my droid right now. so far me likey
2pintsofbooze - December 15, 2010
She rocked on Saturday Night Live
but as I said—the family didn’t catch the vibe. I looked at them all with dismay: the wife and I can disagree, but c’mon kids—despite the piano, drums, dancing, chorus, rock band, etc, you’ve got a lot to learn about music and real art, my young friends. Sure we all have a right to our opinion, but don’t just get sucked into the Glee, Taylor Swift, Britney Spears pedestrianpop culture music bandwagon without a fight.
Raaddad - December 15, 2010
it seems you are doing
all you can to steer them in the right direction, music-wise.
keep fighting the good fight
2pintsofbooze - December 15, 2010
and very cool of you to take your dads to a show
I hope my kids do that for me when they get to be your age (of course, it will probably be in a wheelchair at this rate…). I’ll probably just sit their like an idiot watching his girlfriend bounce up and down…hoho
Raaddad - December 15, 2010
lol!
you are so me when I get older.
but yeah, the tix was their fathers day presents. and we all had a great time. I was a little worried since neither dads had heard of the band, but they were super stoked afterwards, so we knew we’d done good. we’re trying to do it again and go see John Butler Trio, another Australian band who I like a lot. much more folky though than Wolfmother.
2pintsofbooze - December 15, 2010
"Folk music" is what it's all about
That’s where all the best contemporary pop music comes from. Like this band Mumford and Sons that’s really popular. English folk meets rock and … banjo?
Most of the stuff I’ve written is informed by folk music (not that any of it is any good lol)
Raaddad - December 15, 2010
then you'd really dig JBT
the guy is AMAZING on the guitar
2pintsofbooze - December 15, 2010
Nice.
Too bad kids can’t get into the House of Blues
Raaddad - December 15, 2010
yeah they can
I’ve been to many shows there where they simply put a wristband on the people over 21. There may be some shows where kids can’t attend, but I’m pretty certain most shows are all ages.
2pintsofbooze - December 15, 2010
SD HoB is like this too.
Commander_Nate - December 15, 2010
Cool
Do you know the date they will be appearing?
Raaddad - December 15, 2010
actually
I think they were at the Hollywood one last month, meaning we blew it.
you could always hop a flight to Japan or Australia to see them next month. :)
2pintsofbooze - December 15, 2010
Ha
I’ll tell my cousin who’s down under hanging with his hot aussie babe.
Raaddad - December 15, 2010
I'm so glad Beltre promised to sign on Thursday
Oh wait, that was two Thursdays ago.
Brody - December 15, 2010
Anyone else notice that we're not being mentioned by the Hymens anymore
Seems like something could be brewing in the FO now that the “sources” are on lockdown
Epic Dean - December 15, 2010
ooooooo
…a good reverse psychology conspiracy theory…
Rev Halofan - December 15, 2010
I clicked that AN link expecting some discussion about Community (which has grown into probably the best comedy on television right now)
Nope…instead I got some awful turd sandwich.
linkbruin - December 15, 2010
I love Community
and agree it is the best comedy on TV. but then again, I don’t watch every comedy, so my POV is skewed.
that conspiracy theory episode a couple weeks back had me ROLLING.
2pintsofbooze - December 15, 2010
Wait.
The Halos front office thought that Mike Trout would still be on the dock at pick #125???
Stirrups - December 15, 2010
I don't think so, I think that was just Whicker being Whicker.
~MMP~ - December 15, 2010
or
Whicker being dicker
2pintsofbooze - December 15, 2010
Even Fangraphs would blush at that freshman-level WAR argument
Here’s another one.
Adrian Beltre’s 2010 WAR – Brandon Wood’s 2010 WAR = 7.1 – (-1.8) = 8.9
Angels’ 2010 Wins – Rangers’ 2010 Wins = 80 – 90 = -10
(Adrian Beltre’s 2010 WAR – Brandon Wood’s 2010 WAR) – (Angels’ 2010 Wins – Rangers’ 2010 Wins) = -1.1
Conclusion: The Angels would have only finished a game behind the Rangers if they had signed Adrian Beltre last offseason!
Suboptimal - December 15, 2010
Considering
One player, even with regression, would mark almost a 5 win difference gives all the reason you need to sign the Tre.
PhiSlamma - December 15, 2010
believable
since the only people at 3rd base for the Halos last year were AAA player level.
phoenix15 - December 15, 2010
You realize that you don't get to play 2010 Beltre in 2011 right? Or did you build a time machine and kidnap him from the past?
Beltre is worth 4 WAR not 7.1. Furthermore the Angles were 8 WAR BELOW average last year. The Rangers were 12 WAR Above average. Now without lee that hurts them and they probably are only 8.5 WAR above average. Guess what even with your craptastic fake math you are still about 7 WAR short of competing. Good luck with that.
designatedforassignment - December 15, 2010
Suboptimal - December 15, 2010
lawl
RexTookMyStash - December 16, 2010
A's fans are bizzare.
Starting with the fact that they’re A’s fans.
Teixeira Who? - December 15, 2010
A's fans who believe in astrology are even more bizarre
Totally ignoring the Saturn transits coming up in Lew Wolff’s chart they should know there is not a prayer for that franchise…
Rev Halofan - December 16, 2010
I don't believe in astrology. I find the construction humorous.
designatedforassignment - December 16, 2010
Bizarre*
Teixeira Who? - December 15, 2010
In trying to come up with a good reason to be an As fan
all I can come up with is that if you are an out of town As fan you could fly into Oakland Airport, walk or take a shuttle to the game, stay at an airport area hotel, or get back on a plane, and never ever have to set foot in the city proper and their stellar crime rate. I like to refer to Oakland as Santa Ana North because of their stabbings and shootings on a weekly basis.
steelgolf - December 16, 2010
That would be a pretty terrible walk. I say air bart to bart, then a shorter terrible walk across that bride full of people selling fake ticekts.
RexTookMyStash - December 16, 2010
Number of fatal stabbings that we have had at the stadium in the last two years Angels 1 A's 0
im just saying
designatedforassignment - December 16, 2010
Stabbings within a mile from the stadium would be a more interesting statistic...
Downing Rules - December 20, 2010
I pity Ass fans who have to go see their team play in that godawful ugly stadium.
Fred Fredrix - December 16, 2010
Rec'd so damn hard for the use of "Ass fans"
Teixeira Who? - December 16, 2010
WAR what is it good for?
really come on haven’t you watched the simpsons episode that made fun of sabremetrics.
Halos in DE - December 17, 2010
Of course we have, if only to see the Soth.
Who, by the way, Time Warner’s listings call “former manager”.
red floyd - December 21, 2010
WAR is hell.
Downing Rules - December 20, 2010
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