Halos Heaven

Great to see another Big Red fan!

Go Huskers!!! No let down today (or the rest of the month).

THE VOICE - November 6, 2010 reply

I saw them play in September in Lincoln

amazing stadium experience. Big Red all the way.

Rev Halofan - November 6, 2010 reply

Absolutely one of the best

Venue I’ve ever been in for an event. The atmosphere is incredible!

Thank God ISU’s holder lobbed that 2pt play today…

angelsownredsux - November 6, 2010 reply

I love the Huskers to, always been a fan

mathisrocks5 - November 7, 2010 reply

Family is from there

mathisrocks5 - November 7, 2010 reply

The Angels could really use a bat, specifically a power-hitting third baseman

This year, Beltre’s BA was .321 and his OPS was .919. He’s a perfect fit as evidenced by 5 of the 7 of you thinking he’s moving to the Halos. I hope you are right!

PS: Tony and Arte – take note and open those wallets.

angelslogic - November 6, 2010 reply

if the angels sign only one player I hope for our sake its Beltre

Beltre

If you throw out the season’s Beltre had in ‘04 with the Dodgers & ’10 with the Red Sux, he’s an average player offensively. Very average.

He’d be a nice addition to the lineup offensively, and he’d certainly be nice with the leather, but he’s not worth a long term deal unless it’s about $7-8M a year (which he won’t sign for).

It looks like the best way to get a return on your investment with Beltre is to have him in a contract year. Signing him to a one year deal would probably take at least $15M & he’s not worth that.

In conclusion, I hope the money is spent on Crawford or Werth.

Balls and Strikes - November 6, 2010 reply

But here is our predicament- We have no average third base options within reach for 3+ years

Assuming Cowart blows up and becomes “average” like beltre and becomes a fixture in Anaheim in the future, the best we can hope for is to see him in 2015. So for the next three plus years we go with Callaspo? Izturis? Wood? And you expect us to win championships with that kind of offensive hole at 3rd? Maybe bring back Frandsen?

Not to mention beltre is not average. Sure he is not the best third baseman ever, but he is not average. He’s an above average hitter and fielder and whichever team lands him will overpay for sure, but will get production that few can match. That is the real key to success- build a base of good, cheap young players, then overpay for a few top tier free agents to fill your few holes.

I'll take the +35 2B, +25 HR, and +90 RBI.

With that said, I’m afraid that his average will drop back around .265. I’d offer no more than 4 years, and even that’s pushing it.

Beltre

Beltre hasn’t been average for his entire career. If you throw out his two monster-walk-year seasons, he’s average. He has a career 108 OPS+, counting those two outlier seasons. Without those, he’s average. That was the point. In his career, he’s had 3 seasons where he has topped 35 Doubles, 25 Homers, & 90 RBIs in the same year.
Source:http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/beltrad01.shtml

He’s not worth overpaying for. Crawford is worth overpaying for. So’s Cliff Lee. 2011 is going to be a tough year as there is a fair amount of money tied up in bad contracts. Realistically, 2012 could be the start of a great run. Overpaying for Beltre would make the Angels better in 2011, but would not be good for 2012 and beyond when there is money to spend (good bye Kazmir & GMJ – finally) and a few potentially great players developed (Bourjos, Trout, Trumbo, etc).

Signing Beltre seems like a move you’d expect to see from the Mets.

The Angels have no alternatives at third.

For a long time.

You’re ignoring the value he brings with his glove. As a package, he’s one of the five best overall thirdbasemen in the league, and the Angels haven’t had anything like him in seven or eight years.

Turks Teeth - November 6, 2010 via mobile reply

You are right

Beltre’s glove can’t be underestimated. He’s without a doubt a top 5 defensive thirdbaseman. That is worth so much more than it’s given credit for.

They are different types of players offensively, but I would have rather had Figgins for the $36M / 4 yr contract he signed last winter with Seattle, compared to the $40-$50M/3-4 yr contract it will take to land Beltre

Figgins had a terrible year in ’10. My guess is some of that can be attributed to being a Mariner, moving to 2B, etc.

Overpaying for a player makes sense if that puts you in a position to be a championship caliber team. 2010 was a tough year, 2011 will likely be a better season in terms of random-bad-luck. I don’t think Beltre turns the 2011 Angels into a World Series team.

Not Beltre alone, but he is a critical component.

I think you’re undervaluing Beltre. Let’s just look at the past five years. Measured in WAR, which is the best single metric we have to value a player’s offense and defense combined:

2006: 4.9 WAR (#1)
2007: 3.0 WAR (#4)
2008: 4.0 WAR (#3)
2009: 2.5 WAR (#7)
2010: 7.1 WAR (#1)

The ranking at right ranks him relative to all thirdbasemen in the AL for that given year. According to FanGraphs’s relative valuations for those contributions, in his worst season above (2009), he was still worth $11.2M, based on what was paid for players MLB-wide.

To put that 2009 in perspective, only two position players on the Angels had a WAR higher than 2.5 this season: Mike Napoli at 2.7 and Torii Hunter at 3.5. Beltre is an elite defender who hits for league average and delivers 25 HRs and 90 RBIs in an average season — and tends to deliver one MVP season per contract. How many thirdbasemen are on the market who really offer that value? Not many.

Anytime you value a player, it’s important to ask, compared to what? The Angels paid Garret Anderson $45M for four years (age 33-36), and most Angel fans were fine with that contract. I don’t see why Beltre, a more valuable player overall, shouldn’t receive 4yrs and $50M for his age 32-35 years.

Just a little more perspective: here’s the aggregate WAR for the years 2006-2010 for some third basemen:

David Wright: 28.7
Alex Rodriguez: 27.9
Ryan Zimmerman 25.8
Adrian Beltre: 21.5
Scott Rolen: 19.9
Aramis Ramirez 17.9
Chone Figgins: 12.6
Troy Glaus: 12.2
Jose Bautista: 9.6
Melvin Mora: 7.7
Alberto Callaspo: 3.9

Halosheaven.com has a Staff

~~and Halowood is not on it?~~

They got designer shades just to hide their faces. They wear them around like they're cooler than me.

Pedro Feliciano can be our new Darren Oliver.

My pipe dream is that we land Beltre and either CC or Werth. That’d be some serious shit.

angelsownredsux - November 6, 2010 reply

matsui isnt going to seattle

him and ichiro hate each other. I think it’s A’s or retirement for godzilla

ihearhowie2.0 - November 6, 2010 reply

So the consensus is that Halo's land only one of the big four FAs

Since the only viable trade bait the team has is Napoli, will this be a successful off-season if Beltre is the only major addition?

mustard_man - November 6, 2010 reply

yes

Anyone else ok with literally signing Beltre and Crawford and letting everything else work itself out?

And by that I mean no more signings, but maybe trading Kendrick, Rivera, and possibly Napoli.

lightupthehalo29 - November 6, 2010 reply

I understand Arte is willing to spend money, but with Haren coming over, our last year's payroll ended at 129 million.

You can bet that if we land Crawford and Beltre, we’ll be pushing 150 million, and to me that’s unacceptable. Crawford and Beltre would be great to have if we do some major salary dumps. Trading Rivera away as a salary dump would save us 5 million, Napoli away for prospects would save us 6, cutting Mathis would save us 3, cutting Wood and trading Callaspo would save us 1 million, totaling in 15 million saved bringing out payroll to 135 million which is agreeable I think.

Beltre, Crawford and Conger for Napoli, Rivera, Mathis, Wood and Callaspo….

payroll spike would be temporary

you have matthews and kazmir off the books after next season and torii’s monster contract off after 2012

if we could develop some cheap relievers we would be in decent shape the next couple years

ihearhowie2.0 - November 6, 2010 reply

Relievers.

How badly do we need a lefty? Can the Angels survive with what they have now?

I would go after a cheap lefty but other than that stick with what we have

Yeah, I’m curious to see what situational lefty Ninja may sign. Ninja might stick to his guns when it comes to thug life, I don’t see him throwing more money at a closer.

How about the Hisanori Takahashi?

Good against lefties and righties and can start a game if you need him to. Nothing amazing but a solid pitcher all around who shouldn’t cost much. I’d take him over, say, Scott Downs or Pedro Feliciano.

dmhead - November 7, 2010 reply

I thought about that the other day

He could make a decent replacement for Darren Oliver. Very versatile: you can use him as a late-inning guy, a long man, or a lefty specialist. Also, maybe not all of our new friends in the Japanese media will take off when Matsui leaves.

He's looking for 3 years and 12-15 million.

I would pass at that price, but if it comes down, he could be an interesting option

~MMP~ - November 7, 2010 reply

Well fortunately the Angels have an excellent crop of relievers on their way...

Kohn Thompson and Walden are very good and soon Geltz and Berg will join the cast. Rodney….meh, Jepsen’s off and on and Bulger’s solid.

You know you've really made it in life when you make it into the Halos Heaven inner circle of awesomeness....

I find it odd that most everyone surveyed still belies that going into next season, we’re either going to have a giant hole in LF or 3B. Hardly anyone thinks we’ll be able to land Beltre and either Crawford or Werth. I confess, I don’t believe we will either, but I think that’s what it would take to retake the division.

5 of the 7 people said the Angels would sign Beltre

Nevermind, I misread what you said

By the way, I just thought I'd let you all know, Werth = GMJ version 2.0

We’d get him at age 32, old for an OF. His HR’s would dip down to 20, his SB would go up to 20, his DB would dip down to 30 and his BA would go down to .270.

So Werth in Anaheim = .270/.360 30 DB 20 HR 20 SB. He’s essentially Abreu for the price of 15 million a year. NO THANK YOU.

Mike Trout will be here in a year, I say we sign Beltre and then trade Napoli for Ellsbury and trade away Callaspo and Rivera. The money comes out even, we get our lead off hitter and left fielder and 3B. When Trout is ready I let Torii know it’s time to DH

I would love Ellsbury, but I don't think the Red Sox will trade him

Here's how I see it

The Red Sox are expected to land either Crawford or Werth. They’ll be in the race for V-Mart, but he’s going to cost them big. If they land Crawford and lose out on V-Mart (which there’s a great chance of that happening), heck yeah they’ll trade Ellsbury for Naps. They’d already have their leadoff hitter in Crawford, and he roams way too much turf to waste his talents in the tiny Fenway LF. They’d still have JD Drew, Mike Cameron, Carl Crawford, Daniel Nava and Josh Reddick. Also if they resign Beltre, Youkilis has experience in LF.

Too many OF options, not enough catching options.

I totally forgot about Martinez, if they miss out on him, I could see them going hard after someone like Napoli.

Not sure Crawford is really an ideal leadoff hitter, but if it means they get a really good power hitting catcher, I could see them making that sacrifice.

i would love to kick him in the balls

Thanks for the heads up

Although I suspect that the Angels would not have traded GMJ 1.0 for a useless reliever and three quarts of motor oil if he was capable of anything like “.270/.360 30 DB 20 HR 20 SB.” Now I agree that Werth will not present a great value to whomever signs him, but GMJ is not the most relevant precedent to invoke here. How about Jason Bay?

By the way, can you explain why the Red Sox, who had the third worst outfield in the major leagues last year, will be in a hurry to unload Jacoby Ellsbury when his trade value is down siginificantly?

Suboptimal - November 6, 2010 reply

Probably something in between Bay and Swisher.

There are worse fates — but we our farm will likely produce something at least comparable in value within two years.

The Werth and GMJ comparison was more along the lines of skill set.

Decent power, decent speed but his numbers are incredibly inflated by surrounding himself with the likes of Howard, Utely, Rollins and Victorino and playing in the HR haven.

If the Red Sox signed Crawford they’d have Crawford, Ellsbury, Drew, Cameron, Daniel Nava and Josh Reddick. I’ll agree that Reddick, Cameron and Nava are backup OF’s, but if V-Mart is gone, I bet they’d rather have Napoli/Cameron in the lineup everyday instead of Saltalamacchia/Ellsbury.

Ah, skill set. Isn't that the same bullshit term used to justify playing Mathis over Naps.

snowhor - November 7, 2010 via mobile reply

There's no resemblance whatsoever between GMJ and Werth as players.

No matter what “you thought you’d let us all know”.

Matthews never delivered 4 WAR in any season, including 2006. Werth has delivered ~5 WAR for three seasons straight. Werth’s career OBP is .379, GMJ’s is .332. He’s a fundamentally different player.

I don’t think we need a multiyear free agent in LF personally, but there’s no need to misrepresent Werth’s value to make that case.

You're right, I was being a bit over-dramatic

But I think Werth would be an awful investment.

Cool. Yeah, we really don't need him.

My fear is...

Boston decides that Beltre is essential, which is probable given (1) their glut of outfielders, (2) the value they place on defense, and (3) lack of a big bopper, from either outside or inside their organization, that is good enough to push Youk across the diamond. Beltre’s high contact/pull-oriented approach fits Fenway perfectly, so even when he regresses, their park will continue to play to his strengths. I think they’ll value him more highly than any other club, including the Angels.

All of that could change if they pull off the long-awaited A-Gonz trade, but their system isn’t exactly loaded right now, so I doubt they can induce the Padres to effectively concede over the offseason.

I suspect one team or another swoops in and gives Crawford an appalling contract that will make the Halos’ offer look stingy (but eventually very smart). The Tigers are as good a bet as anyone to make that happen.

That leaves Werth as Arte’s last available dance partner. It isn’t a perfect fit, but Moreno will be desperate for a big-name contributor, and Werth is undeniably that right now (even if he throws a wrench into the Halos’ long-term plans for their outfield and makes it all the harder to squeeze another lefty power bat – something they could really use – into the lineup).

rghan - November 6, 2010 reply

Somewhat grim, but totally feasible.

I could see the Angels passing on Beltre because of his cost and the fact that we just brought in Callaspo. IF that happened though, the Angels would be the team to go all in on Crawford.

I get the feeling that Reagins is going to pull of 3 trades this winter though.

Boston has a 1Bman who can play 3B

Friend of mine who follows them closely says he doesn’t think they’ll go after Beltre.

Most of the media believes they'll not only pursue him, but resign him as well.

That's the vibe over here as well

My Red Sox buddies would rather re-sign V-Mart to play first, move Youkilis to third, and then get a catcher who can actually throw out base runners. They also haven’t given up on Lars Anderson either, as well they shouldn’t. Four years of Beltre at a premium would complicate that scenario.

You're selling Werth short.

I can’t back up my claim that if Werth were to play in Anaheim he’d put up better numbers than that, but it’s hard seeing him underachieve greatly with 20 HRs and 30 2Bs. His OBP is better than GMJ ever even sniffed. Werth has had 3 full season(with 3 season of around 90 games before that), so one can argue he’s barely entering his prime. The cons of signing Werth would be that he is 32 in May of 2011, he’s coming from the NL, and played in a hitter’s park with a damn good lineup. Bottom line, Werth is a gamble, but would be fine add to our lineup. We need someone other than K-Mo and Hunter to drive in runs.

Dammit.

Should have read everyone else’s response, it’s basically a collection of ’em. Move along, nothing to see here.

I know you love Ellsbury

But why should we be trying to trade Napoli to an AL team when an NL team with a lot of talent (Rockies) are so interested in him.

ryanfea - November 6, 2010 reply

Can't we get the Dodgers and Rockies into a bidding war over Naps?

And somehow spin that into the prize of Matt Kemp? I think Welch has sold me on the idea.

Isn’t there some package to be made among candidates like Napoli, Callaspo, Aybar, Rivera, Abreu, Trumbo and Moore that could net Kemp?

Trading Naps, at least this year, is a mistake.

We need him next season for a variety of reasons: DH, part-time first base, part-time catcher.

But the point I really want to make, which I have rarely seen mentioned here at HH, is that his offensive stats would be significantly better if he had some (ANY!) protection in the batting order. Being surrounded this year by Aybar, Rivera, Kendrick, Mathis, Frandsen, and others does not help your BA or your OBP. Nap was constantly swinging at bad pitches because that was all he got. At most plate appearances, he was lucky to get one hittable pitch. If he missed it, he was done. I for one would sure like to see what he could do batting with two strong hitters on either side of him, one of them being Beltre.

angelslogic - November 6, 2010 reply

The issue of "protection" has been studied extensively over the years

And has been found to be nearly non-existent.

Maybe

I’m not entirely convinced that the Dodgers are ready to trade Kemp yet. I guess time will tell.

ryanfea - November 6, 2010 reply

I'm not convinced the Dodgers will trade Kemp to the Angels. It would be a PR nightmare for them.

Trading away the guy that management's been slagging for four years now?

Would seem to me a PR bonanza, in the way that the Angels booting Jose Guillen did nothing but strengthen the organization’s rep. The Dodgers have been trying to send their young core a “message” for nearly a half-decade now, and I don’t see how you’d do a better job of it than by trading away the poster child whose agent has said he’ll never re-sign with the club.

I just think there's too big of a rivalry between Moreno and McCourt

They are constantly battling for exposure and you know McCourt probably isn’t happy we’re referring to ourselves as “L.A.” now. There’s new management in place within the Dodgers, what have they to lose by giving Mattingly a chance to reach Kemp? On top of which, they’d be selling low at this point.

I’d love to have Kemp and if he’s available, outside of Trout, there isn’t much I wouldn’t give the Dodgers for him. I just don’t think he’s that available. Do you?

I think the biggest impediment to them dealing Kemp is that he plays CF

They don’t have any CF options behind him, that I’m aware of. I think cross-town rivalries have more to do with fans than owners, and certainly the McCourts have bigger things to worry about these days. And there’s no way that the Dodgers would be selling “low” in terms of not getting a good return — there is a permanent market for proven 30/30 guys who can play CF and have 89 home runs before their age-26 season.

The main up-or-down question will be whether Mattingly will want to try to make a connection, or use him as an example for a new clubhouse (like Sosh/Stoneman did w/ Jim Edmonds). That, and whether the McCourts need to shed salary, but the latest I’ve read about it says they expect to expand payroll.

Basically, any time you’ve got a team slagging on one of its star players, over and over and over and over again, that suggests to me an opening. It’s how the Cardinals got Scott Rolen, the Brewers got Ted Simmons, and the Orioles got Frank Robinson. I just hope we’re exploring it maximally.

I read somewhere that Kemp really likes Mattingly, so I could see the Dodgers giving Kemp another year in LA in hopes that he works better with Mattingly's staff.

I do agree that it’s a possibility that should be explored though.

~MMP~ - November 7, 2010 reply

I was listening to MLB on XM today

and the beat writer for the Dodgers, Dylan Hernandez, was talking about Davey Lopes coming to the Dodgers as a coach and how that could make Kemp away better player

LanaBanana - November 7, 2010 reply

Agreed, there is a market for any player like Kemp

But selling him the year after he hits .250 instead of .290 and wipes less bags probably deflates his value a bit. On top of which, what could we offer that the Dodgers would bite on? I mean we could try Napoli, Moore, Chatwood and Trumbo but would they bite and could we afford that?

Mentioned it before, but they need catching 2B/3B, OF, and payroll relief

We’ve got all of that, potentially, in Napoli, Callaspo, Rivera, Willits, and money. I don’t think any of our prospects (outside of Trout) are particularly interesting, but at the same time I think they’d want to be able to keep a straight face about not hurting the big-league club. It’s probably not enough, but it’s not nothing.

mattwelch - November 8, 2010 reply

I don't really think they'd be interested in that.

- Napoli, yes as long as we paid part of his expected 6 million dollar price tag. That would slide Martin into a backup role which he is suited for.

- Callaspo, yes, he’d either take over 2B for Ryan Theriot when he’s non-tendered or take over 3B for Casey Blake.

- Rivera, sure if we paid most if not all of his contract. Do we really want to do that though?

- Willits, yes he can take over CF until they find a permanent solution.

In all honesty though, those are all very short term fixes. Willits will go straight to the bench just like Pierre did as soon as they find a viable solution in CF. Rivera’s only there for one year. Napoli’s only there for one year. If we wanted Kemp, it would take a much stronger package, stronger even than what I just proposed.

I’d say: Napoli + 2 million, Callaspo, Willits, Chatwood and Kohn.

Once

Halowood - November 8, 2010 reply

to be fair, Kemp doesn't really play CF very well

according to fangraphs, last season he ranked dead last of all qualifying MLB CF for UZR/150 with a -25.6.

our very own Bourjos ranked first with a 44.7, although he only had 449 innings and therefore doesn’t qualify for the season overall. but he did have the highest for anyone who played more than 225 innings in CF last season. pretty impressive.

I understand he wouldn’t be asked to play CF for the Halos, but to say that his skillset is hard to come by since he plays CF, one should also mention that he isn’t very good in CF and should probably move to a corner as soon as possible.

2pintsofbooze - November 8, 2010 reply

Correct. Yet do the Dodgers have a backup plan? I dunno

mattwelch - November 8, 2010 reply

Because the Rockies don't have anyone of Jacoby Ellsbury's talent that they are willing to trade.

It’s literally a perfect match and makes way too much sense. Boston claimed Naps off waivers, have an opening at catcher and love having power hitting catchers ever since Francona took over. Ellsbury has fallen out of favor in Boston and they aren’t convinced he’ll stay healthy. The money is the same so it wouldn’t hurt them. The Red Sox also laid witness to what Napoli could do to a team in the 2008 ALDS. The Angels need a young, cheap leadoff hitter that plays LF and paying 6 million dollars for a part time catcher seems ill-advised.

I have no idea if it will happen, but the stars are lining up.

But isn't Ellsbury the CFer of the future?

I don't know, is he?

He has two years remaining before he hits free agency, and his range is wasted in LF. The Red Sox are also big players in the free agent market and via trade and they also have Cameron for CF. If they sign Crawford, his talent would be wasted in LF in Boston, they may slide him into CF as well.

I also wouldn’t be surprised to see the Red Sox sign Rick Ankiel who can play CF, you know his power would turn into 30+ bombs in Fenway if he stayed healthy.

Wait, what?

1) Ellsbury is a natural CFer; they got Cameron as a stopgap and as part of an overall defensive upgrade, and had to sweet-talk Jacoby into moving to LF. Had Ellbury not been hurt this year he would have started 100 games in CF. Cameron’s contract is finished after the 2011 season, after which the team has nobody else for the position (and in 2011 it’s conceivable that Cameron will continue breaking down). Center field is a much scarcer position to fill than LF, and there’s no real reason to give up on a 27-year-old who is A) cheap for the next few years, and B) a proven commodity as a center fielder.

2) Ellsbury is under club control for 2011, 2012, and 2013.

3) Crawford is not a center fielder, and will not suddenly become one in his 30s.

4) Ankiel has hit .232/.298/.388 the last two years, and is on the wrong side of 30. If the Sox sign him, it’ll be to a minor league contract.

I think the Red Sox realize now they're not going to get their money's worth out of Cameron

But they’re big boys with pockets deep enough to drown anyone’s sorrow, and they’ll move on. My read on them is that they prefer shorter contracts with higher annual salaries (the Lackey albatross notwithstanding). I think they plan to go with Ellsbury in center for the foreseeable future. They will likely pursue Crawford and Werth this offseason, with preference to Werth, but back out if the bidding goes over four years. That leaves Cameron as a fourth outfielder or possible Plan B. They’re much too smart to waste their time on guys like Rick Ankiel.

What I'm saying is there are too many scenarios to indicate Ellsbury is the be all-end all for Boston in CF

He’s got one more year on his contract than Napoli does and their price will be around the same. They need a catcher and that position is harder to fill than CF. Let’s not forget than even though Cameron’s body is breaking down, this guys still hit 3-+ DB and 21-24 HR’s a year in San Diego and Milwaukee within the last couple of years. It’s not at all far-fetched to think he couldn’t do the same thing in Boston. Also, what happens if the Red Sox resign Beltre? They could play Youk at 1B, DH Ortiz and use Ellsbury in LF but have no catcher, or they could put Youk in LF, Lars Anderson at 1B and trade Ellsbury for Napoli. Essentially it come down to (for them) who would they rather give AB’s to, Lars Anderson or Jarod Saltalamacchia?

I think they'll definitely go after a catcher, but will they give up the kid?

Who knows, I guess his rep has soured, and it’s a safe bet that they’ll some some CF. But that still leaves them CF-less after Cameron’s done (and quite possibly before, if this year was any indication), and I think they must be shellshocked by all the bags of warm meat they threw at the position in 2010.

mattwelch - November 8, 2010 reply

I thought Boston's front office did not like his D in center.

hauldog - November 7, 2010 reply

Neither did UZR or TotalZone

But he’s improved in that department recently.

rghan - November 7, 2010 reply

practically everyone thinks Lee is going to the Yanks

I read that the Nationals are willing to spend money this year and ae talking about going hard for Lee. That’d be a nice pick up considering the Whole Strausberg thing, but I’m not saying the Nats are gonna get him I’m just saying I won’t be surprised if they do. Their owner is the richest out of all baseball owners btw.

(!ts_a_C.A._thing) - November 6, 2010 via mobile reply

they can offer all the money they want to but he wont sign there

KB_24 - November 6, 2010 reply

can i be part of the staff :(

KB_24 - November 6, 2010 reply

no

you changed your name

Who asked you?

KB_24 - November 7, 2010 reply

you did

DAD OF VLAD - November 7, 2010 reply

Quick Beltre Profile

BA/OBP/SLG WAR

2007: .276/.319/.482 3.0
2008: .266/.327/.457 4.0
2009: .265/.304/.379 2.5
2010: .321/.365/.553 7.1

2010 Home/Road Splits
Home: .314/.359/.521 (13 HRs, 19 doubles)
Road: .327/.370/.583 (15 HRs, 30 doubles)

Given that the Angels do not have anyone qualified to play third on a regular basis, Beltre is an obvious fit. Beware of Boras! Beltre is not a 7 WAR player. What he provides is outstanding defense and decent power. Realistically he is a 3 or 4 WAR player. I’d prefer a 3-year deal but Boras will likely insist on at least four. He’s 32 in 2011 but I feel it is an old 32 given that he’s played over 1,800 games and incurred various injuries over his career. 4-years for $52 million is fair but a weak free agent market (especially at third) could push the contract value up to $60 million. I think the Angels end up landing Beltre but will have to overpay.

Sources:
FanGraphs
B-Ref

Fan Since 1981 - November 6, 2010 reply

The Crazy-Ass Swing of Beltre

Getting away from the numbers, here are some of Beltre’s drop-to-the-knee home runs. Fun stuff.

vs Garza

Safeco Upper Deck Watch to the end of the video; good replay of the swing.

Right out of Fenway

Fan Since 1981 - November 6, 2010 reply

Nice info

Good bunch of links. Thanks.

WiHaloFan - November 6, 2010 reply

No hesitation. No tears and no hearts breakin', no remorse.

Halos have been happy to pay 18-19M a year to an older player who has averaged 3.3 WAR a season over his contract (Hunter), but are bashful about paying 12-14M to a younger player who has averaged 4.3 WAR over his past five seasons.

Hunter brings a great media glow, but his glove isn’t elite anymore, and we don’t need a right fielder like we need a third baseman. If folks are cool overpaying for Hunter, they should be all smiles to overpay for Beltre at a rate of roughly five mil less per season.

There’s a lot of money coming off the payroll next season. The team can afford to overpay for Beltre.

backload the shit out of this year's free agent contracts?

So it won’t “affect” this year’s budget?

I agree that Beltre is the best fit

But I think Boston is looking at him as irreplaceable too (unless they swing that deal for A-Gonz), and will decide to “overpay” as well. That bidding war could get ugly.

rghan - November 6, 2010 reply

That's a bidding war we simply cannot win.

Two vote for Dunn to the Mariners.

No interest to see Big Donkey in Anaheim?

I recognize that it hasn’t been the Scioscia Path to have a dedicated DH since the end of Glaus’ tenure here, but why not? 40HRs/100RBIs and 80+ walks a season doesn’t pique anyone’s interest? A little leverage against having Abreu’s third year option vest, and a serious cleanup threat to pair with Morales, Hunter and Beltre?

Abreu should be the DH

I don’t want to see him in the field again. If we didn’t already have a bunch of slow guys that can’t play defense (Abreu, Rivera, Napoli) then I’d be all for a Dunn signing. Signing Crawford and getting Abreu out of the field is a better risk and my opinion.

ryanfea - November 6, 2010 reply

It's short-term thinking though.

You’re thinking about 2011, when we should be thinking about 2011-2014.

If Dunn were signed, it would be for several years, and the Halos would have to find a way to offload Bobby in the final year of his contract.

I think the problem here is too many DHs

The team was burned on having a lousy OF this year, and will likely shy away from throwing more tree trunks out in LF. With Abreu playing 150 games a year, and Rivera/Napoli still both untraded and unloved, that means we’ve got 3 DHs already. Adding a 4th would put defensive pressure on the team.

I’d rather try to solve LF long-term with someone who can switch to RF once Hunter’s done (using Napoli and Rivera as part of the bait), and let Abreu DH the rest of his contract. That way you can shop around for DHs when the time comes.

All that said, I love me some Adam Dunn, and will be shocked if Boston doesn’t take a strong run at him.

I don't think Boston will.

They don’t really like Ortiz at 1B and they have Youk. Dunn wouldn’t fare any better at 1B than Ortiz. I could picture Dunn handling LF in Boston, as that’s the easiest LF to handle in baseball, but he’d even be sub-par there. I think Dunn goes to Yankees.

Disagree

Dunn is bad wherever you play him but won’t kill a team at first base. Ortiz, on the other hand, has been a career DH for a reason and has looked embarrassing the few times they’ve put him there.

I can see the Sux living with Dunn at first for a season, then shifting him to DH once Ortiz leaves. That would line up perfectly with Gonzalez becoming a free agent. Youk’s ability to play third gives them a ton of leverage.

dmhead - November 7, 2010 reply

Where are the Yankees going to put Adam Dunn?

They’re not going to stick him in their outfield, and they have Teixeira at first. Then between Posada, Rodriguez, and Jeter, they have a lot of aging bats to rotate through the DH spot, and none of them will be leaving any time soon. They’re already very old and very left-handed.

Easy, Dunn DH's.

The Yankees can afford to put Dunn in the OF on occasion when A-Rod needs to DH.

you pay for future performance, not past

and Dunn would have to DH everyday which means our other older players would have to field without a day off.

the reason torii moved to RF was because our corner spots were SO bad…dunn makes the situation worse

ihearhowie2.0 - November 6, 2010 reply

One year with Bobby part-time in LF would not subtract much...

…given what Bourjos adds in centerfield. It’s essentially what we got in the last two months of 2010, when our pitching staff’s aggregate ERA dropped a full point and a half. It was 4.47 in May, and it was 2.86 in Sept/Oct.

That was with Abreu/Rivera largely in leftfield. Bourjos alone adds A LOT. As would 35-40 HRs from the DH spot.

So we would trick Dunn by saying,

“sure, you can play LF—half of the time.” Thus, not making him a “full time DH,” so everybody wins.

I'm not getting you.

Dunn would be a full-time DH if we acquired him. Maybe a few days in LF or 1B, but 90%+ he would be a DH.

Dunn said he would not DH two years ago — he’s since relented on that stance, and said he would be open to DHing if the contract was right and he were playing for a competitive club.

I was still under the impression that he hates the DH role.

Now that he’s changed his mind, Dunn would be option D after CC, Beltre, Werth?

It's not a bad idea

But as you say, it’s not the “Scioscia Path,” and so I just don’t see it happening. Sure Dunn can club 35+ homers every year and walk 15% of the time, but he would just end up losing PAs at DH to some slap-hitting middle-infielder who starts randomly batting over .300.

Suboptimal - November 6, 2010 reply

It's pessimistic -- but is it accurate?

Will Scioscia change his behavior in the face of underperfomance?

He didn’t seem to have much of a problem giving Matsui almost 500 PAs at DH this season. He gave Vlad around 400 PAs at DH in 2009, and would have given him more had he not been injured.

I don’t think there’s overwhelming evidence that Scioscia will not use a full time DH, as long as he has an effective leadoff candidate and the rest of the lineup is doing its job.

I'd love to see Dunn, but unfortunately we're stuck with Abreu.

How about signing Bengie Molina to mentor Conger?

If Napoli is traded and Mathis hopefully is non-tendered, what do you guys think about maybe signing Bengie back for a year to mentor Conger?

310Angel - November 6, 2010 reply

Sort of, I guess....

From what I hear, Mathis is premium. Napoli to me is probably average back there, but average doesn’t cut it for Mike Scioscia. Wilson’s pretty solid defensively and I watched Conger quite a bit this season and was really impressed, I bet he’d be an average major league backstop too.

Where's Curtis Granderson on that list?

Disclaimer — yes, I KNOW he isn’t a FA. It just seemed like we needed a Granderson joke.

red floyd - November 6, 2010 reply

keep dragging that horse out of the freezer

beat it until it falls apart beat it

I got a letter from PETDH the other day

People for the Ethical Treatment of Dead Horses

red floyd - November 6, 2010 reply

PETDH also warned me about making a DoV joke...

red floyd - November 7, 2010 reply

Haha

i just scanned through the comments to see if anyone had made the joke yet. If not, I was going to.

Match Day 5 - November 6, 2010 reply

I think you guys just dont want to jinx Crawford coming to the Angels so you say he goes elsewhere

mathisrocks5 - November 7, 2010 reply

You believe in jinxes?

I hope we don’t sign any free agents while Mercury is Retrograde this winter.

Rev Halofan - November 7, 2010 reply

jayson werth

Looks like dan haren in that good looking hat!

wheres_bourjos_at - November 7, 2010 via mobile reply

Haren

With a grizzly beard.

Slyintine - November 7, 2010 reply

Anyone think if Werth were to sign with BoSox he'd put up better numbers than Bay?

SenorChuckles - November 7, 2010 reply

Which Jason Bay?

The 2009 or the 2010 edition?

His one full season in Boston: 2009

SenorChuckles - November 7, 2010 reply

Bay hit .267 / .384 / .537 in 2009

That’s close to what Werth did this year (same OBP, but with a higher batting average and fewer home runs). So he could do better than that, although I doubt much better, and it shouldn’t be expected year after year at this stage of his career.

I want Soriano.

hauldog - November 7, 2010 reply

I do, too. However,

I just learned that Borasss is his agent.

I can see Moreno/Regins swallowing hard, biting their lips, and possibly dealing for one of Soriano, Beltre, or Werth, but not two. From the two, I’d have to choose between Beltre and Soriano. What do you do? I’d have to choose Beltre.

We already have to worry about future dealings over Weaver and Morales.

I now see the wisdom, if not the vision, of rghan and Suboptimal predicting that the Angels would sign JJ Putz. I didn’t realize Putz was available until I saw the FA Tracker.

I’m wondering if we can get by without any new Borasss clients.

wumbug - November 8, 2010 reply

Jhonny Peralta just got a 2 year, 11.25 million dollar deal.

Am I crazy or is that a little much for him?

~MMP~ - November 7, 2010 reply

It's reasonable

He’s been a 1.5 WAR player the last two seasons and he’s still under 30, so 2/11 is about the expected break-even point. He seems to have peaked early, but the Tigers must feel he’s capable of another 25 home run season. Best of luck to them with that.

I think that depends.....

I mean he’s an alright SS and is decent offensively. I don’t think they had anyone else worth starting that’s below him on the depth chart. So 5 and a half million a year seems decent.