3) Mark Trumbo, 1/16/86 - 1B, OF
.301/.368/.577 with 36 HR and 3 SB. +29 bat, +3 glove, 4.12 WAR
Trumbo is the most controversial prospect in the Halos' system, featuring gargantuan raw power and a good contact rate for a slugger, but little patience and no defensive value. The pop has fueled decent slash lines going back to 2007, but the sum of his other contributions made him just the 36th most productive Angels' prospect (according to WAR) in both 2008 and 2009. The one-dimensional nature of his game has limited the hype, though the fact that it's the longball dimension means that everyone knows his name. In 2010, the stars aligned for him: Salt Lake' altitude helped his power to shine, he kept his K rate around 20%, and he boosted his walk rate to within a hair of that important 10% benchmark. While he hit for decent average and good power all year, his BB rate showed a clear upward trend all season, which either reflected improving skills, or some combination of poorer AAA pitching (in the second half, many of the better PCL pitchers get promoted) and decreasing protection in the Bees' lineup. His current production in Venezuelan winter ball is very good: he's walking in 10% of his plate appearances and putting up a .344/.404/.613 slash line with 5 HR's in 103 PA's, though his K-rate has also spiked to 32%. It doesn't look like there will be an opportunity for him on the Halos' 2011 club, so Trumbo will likely go back to mashing and refining his outfield skills with the Bees. He's a likely candidate to experience a AAA sophomore slump, which seems to afflict every Angels' prospect who tears up the PCL in his first go, but must deal with the disappointment of returning the following season.
0 recs | 18 comments
Trumbo's trade value will never be higher than now.....
mustard_man - November 10, 2010
If this is true -- and it might be! -- I wonder if that value is worth a hill of beans?
mattwelch - November 10, 2010
Full time DH
problem solved
DAD OF VLAD - November 10, 2010
by Bobby Abreu
mattwelch - November 10, 2010
If people hate Mark Reynolds, then, they'll hate this kid.
No matter how much of a hometown hero he may seem.
SenorChuckles - November 10, 2010
I've always had a hard time buying into Trumbo. I remember when he was first drafted, everyone was excited we got him so late
Then he was awful for his first season and ordinary the next. Is it any coincidence that he bashed 32 HR’s his first season in the Cal League or 36 HR in in the PCL in AAA? I think not. His uptick in BA, OBP and increased walk rate the past two seasons are very encouraging signs. But I simply can’t ignore 126 K’s in AAA, major league pitchers will eat him alive if he swings and misses that much in AAA, just ask Brandon Wood.
The best shot Trumbo has at a major league career is if he increases his walk rate to twice it is now, that way he’d be like Adam Dunn and would have a future in the league as a poor 1B/RF or a good DH and no one would mind the K’s. I understand the numbers are enticing but we mustn’t get too carried away here, Trumbo does need more time in AAA.
Halowood - November 10, 2010
Adam Dunn was a major league regular at age 21, and hit .304/.425/.525 in the minors
mattwelch - November 10, 2010
You can't compare players based on when they got into the league.....
Otherwise Kendry Morales could never be compared to Mark Teixeira (even though I think Kendry’s actually better). IF Trumbo increased his walk rate up word 20% then yes he deserves to be compared to Adam Dunn. For now, I’d say Trumbo and Chris Davis (little known fact, he was drafted by the Angels in 2005) are pretty good comps. Neither may ever be major league regulars unless something changes.
Halowood - November 10, 2010
yes you can
Bill James has some pretty irrefutable research over the course of baseball history that shows long-lasting impact players arrive in the majors earlier than league average players.
Rev Halofan - November 10, 2010
And Kendry Morales, Nelson Cruz, and Josh Hamilton beg to differ.
Sorry, but I gotta go with talent over research on this one.
Halowood - November 10, 2010
I'll let Bill James know what he knows
and let you think what you think on this one man. You point to 3 examples. I know Kendry Morales and Hamilton both had special cases on why they arrived in the minors later than normal. Had Morales been drafted out of Cuba at 17/18 like most HS players, I think there is little doubt he would have been up and in the majors at around age 21. Instead he has to defect a million times, doesn’t play organized baseball for a while and then gets signed by a team with a 1st round draft pick coming into his own at 1B. Hamilton would have been playing by age 21 too likely if he wasn’t addicted to like 4 things at once while in the minors. He finally got over that and boom he started to take off.
Pointing to outliers doesn’t prove anything. In fact that you name only 3 players who weren’t all that good before their mid 20’s shows it isn’t terribly likely that Trumbo is going to take a huge step forward. I think he if he takes a few baby steps forward he could be a nice guy to have off the bench and maybe start against lefties instead of Kendry but for every Hamilton you give me, I could give you 3 or 4 or 10 Ken Griffey Jr, A-Rods, and Mike Trouts ;)
MH252525 - November 10, 2010
Right and I'll agree with you/Bill James on that one point.....
That the truly great ones are the ones that get up early, shine and have long superstar careers. I just don’t think a prospect should be given up on just because he’s not 18-23. There are tons of good players in the majors, marginally pitchers that really never figured it out until they were 27 or 28 years old. My case in point, Chris Pettit, take out his one year he was playing injured in the minors and he’s posting something ridiculous like a .340 career BA, with moderate owe good defense and swipes a few bases. This guy is gonna be what 26 or 27 next year, I don’t think he’s going to be a major league star but I’m willing to bet that if some team gives him a spot for 150 games that he’d bat close to .300. So is he not a prospect just because he old?
Luis Jimenez receives Adrian Beltre comaprisons because they share the same skill set (good power, good contat, undisciplined hitter, decent speed, great defense), yet Jimenez is going to be 22 next season in AA, whereas Beltre was in the majors for his 22 year old season. Should they not be compared?
Bill James does his homework and posts what he knows, sure. But I also know that players get better after age 25.
Halowood - November 10, 2010
nice
+1
angelsownredsux - November 10, 2010
Chris Pettit
when healthy hit 322 in AAA in a great hitting environment in SLC. You really think he’s going to hit anywhere close to 300 at the big league level? Honestly???? And yes Pettit is not much of a prospect at all. His upside is basically being Robb Quinlan that plays LF instead of 3B and 1B. The guy doesn’t hit for power, and he doesn’t draw that many walks. Any team giving him 150 games played I feel pretty confident in saying is not going to be flying flags.
Also Luis Jimenez vs Adrian Beltre???? Are you serious? I’ve seen Lucho play and anyone that compares him to Beltre is inane. Lucho just finished his 22 age season with a BB/K ratio of 24 to 70. Look at Beltre’s ratio in the minors. When the guy was 18 and 19 he was putting up better than 1/1 ratios. That is soooooooo much of a difference compared to Luis.
MH252525 - November 11, 2010
you have totally changed around the initial discussion
You said “You can’t compare players based on when they got into the league…..” and I pointed that Bill James had proven that players can be GAGED based on the age that they stuck in the big leagues.
Now you are posting that you believe prospects in their mid-20s are still prospects. Nobody is disagreeing with you on that. The player with the earlier entry into the MLB tends to reach a higher ceiling and stay at a peak for longer over the course of his career MORE OFTEN than a player who reaches the MLB level at a later age.
Doesn’t mean you cannot compare them, it means that the caveat of age difference sets the ceiling lower for the older player.
Rev Halofan - November 11, 2010
And with that point I do agree, the ceiling of an older player tends to be lower....
I was merely trying to give value to the argument by highlighting that older prospects still serve a function. Then I returned to the argument with Luis Jimenez.
Halowood - November 11, 2010
I hope he doesn't get a job, as a regular, with the Halos.
Let’s hope he only replaces Juancho—on the bench.
SenorChuckles - November 10, 2010
Anyone other then Juanzzzzz would be better
DAD OF VLAD - November 10, 2010
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