Jeremy Moore hits for the Quakes last year in perhaps the only three walk game of his career.
Only two guys in today's installment of best 2010 prospect performances, but they're two highly interesting position players. Who do you think has the best shot at establishing himself as a regular on a big league club? Neither is a sure thing, certainly, but which profile do you prefer?
15) Alexia Amarista, 4/6/89 - 2B, High A, AA, AAA
.309/.350/.421 with 5 HR and 25 SB. +2 bat, +4 glove, 2.86 WAR
Amarista had a streaky 2010 season: he absolutely pounded the ball in the Cal League over the first two months, hitting .358/.400/.512 and generating good power numbers to his pull side. He then slumped horribly in June despite hitting two HR's, which happens "when he's a little pull happy... he limits himself when he gets that pull conscious and opens himself up, gets exposed on the outer half of the plate," according to Abe Flores. The Halos nevertheless promoted him to AA , where he was a much more balanced hitter, improving his K/BB ratio to nearly 1/1 while boosting his line drive rate; but he managed only a .284/.329/.321 line, which is a fair projection of what might do in the MLB if his pop disappears at the upper levels (says the pessimist). He received another promotion in mid August to AAA, where it seems pitchers really did just try to knock the bat out of his hands by throwing him nothing but strikes (his walk rate dropped to 1.4%). Amarista punished them with a .400/.406/.585 line over 69 PA's. How much of that was the PCL hitting environment and good luck is anyone's guess.
TotalZone didn't love his defense this year, measuring his contributions with the glove as good but not elite (he was +20 last year). Maybe that's an indication of what we should expect in the future, or maybe playing at three different levels with three different infields bumped him a little off his game. His Venezuelan winter league stats aren't impressive so far (.200/.250/.244), but I'm sure he's both gassed and trying to find his footing with his fourth team of the year. I look forward to seeing where the Halos place him next year.
14) Jeremy Moore, 6/29/87 - OF, AA
.303/.358/.463 with 13 HR and 24 SB. +15 bat, +0 glove, 2.94 WAR
At first glance, Moore's .303/.358/.463 batting line doesn't look elite, but his park-adjusted 133 OPS+ is the fourth best full season mark among Angels' Double A prospects since 2000, putting him just behind Mike O'Keefe (age 24), Brandon Wood (age 21), and Mike Napoli (age 23). The key point to make here, however, is that Moore's .380 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) was about 40 points higher than any of those guys. Because he strikes out a lot while not bashing 20+ HR's (yet), that high BABIP is absolutely critical to his offensive value, so the question for him is when and to what degree do the hits stop falling against baseball's best defenses. He's put up BABIP's in the .380's in each of past two seasons, and his current winter league BABIP is hovering around .500, so he is establishing a track record. However, guys who make it to the major leagues almost always see their BABIP's drop, sometimes precipitously - the MLB average is usually around .300 - so Moore will have to do at least one, and hopefully all three of the following to be a big league regular: (1) buck the odds and maintain much higher than average BABIP's; (2) reduce his strikeouts to under his current 24.1% rate; and (3) hit more HR's. One guy who has a similar skill set to Moore and accomplished all of those things in his mid to late 20's? Nelson Cruz, though he's a little bigger and a little stronger. I actually like Moore quite a bit - he's a tremendous athlete who has done a great job turning his tools into baseball skills - but expectations for him are rising rapidly despite the clear need for more polish in the minors. At any rate, we're going to hear what the national pundits have to say about him soon, because Moore's .381/.413/.571 performance in the Arizona Fall League demands attention.
0 recs | 46 comments
Amarista hands down in terms of becoming a MLB regular.
Moore clearly has the higher upside (though like you said I’d love to see more power), but at this point all the K’s and high BABIP, combined with the team’s seeming inability to teach (if arguably it can be taught another discussion in of itself) plate discipline makes him more just so much more risky. End of the day, Amarista feels like the much safer play
I also thought Amarista was supposed to be a whiz with the glove? With this organization, the player with the superior leather skills really gives that player a leg up in terms of staying with the MLB club.
Also, what does Moore project like as he gets older? The speed looks great now, but Vlad was also pretty nimble on the base paths.
HaloFanInDC - October 26, 2010
I also go with Amarista
I think we saw a down year from him. When he spent a full year on one team, on one field, he was spectacular. No doubt in my mind he is tired and just trying to get the Angels attention as much as possible. I think he’ll be a regular second basemen somewhere if not here, and I think he can hit .300 at any level with good defense.
Halowood - October 26, 2010
I went with Amarista as well...
My true hope is that Howie hears Alexia’s footsteps and turns it up a couple notches.
Funny how Alexia gets “pull-happy” and Howie gets “inside-out happy”…just sayin’
K3YEROUT - October 26, 2010
And we all get unhappy.
gitchogritchoffmypetis - October 26, 2010
One question about Amarista...
What differentiates him from Aybar, Kendrick, Izturis or Callaspo?
I’m pretty convinced he can match one of the above — that is, I suspect he’ll become a league average middle infielder — but why should I be stoked about that?
I continue to prefer Moore, because while it’s clear his chance of sticking at the MLB level is lower, his upside is so much higher.
Now a question about Moore… How much of that high BABIP is due to his speed and movement out of the box? Speedier players tend to have higher career BABIP. It’s also a very volatile stat. If we want to continue the Nelson Cruz comp, Cruz’s BABIP in 2008 was .388, in 2009 it was .278, and in 2010 it was .348.
That’s an incredible level of variance — it suggests that MLB players can see BABIP like Moore did the past two years, but, yeah, it’s not to be depended upon.
Turks Teeth - October 26, 2010
Amarista accurately matches Alberto Callaspo
Same power, same gap power, same BA, probably a shade more patience and a bunch more speed.
Halowood - October 26, 2010
And we have Callaspo for three more years.
And he cost all of $460k last season. Thus — why should I be stoked about Amarista, when we’re knee-deep in middle infielders of equal caliber?
Amarista is the sort of player you can purchase on the open market for 1-3M almost any season. His ceiling is probably that of Placido Polanco, though he could just as likely become Alfredo Amezaga.
I think folks get a little dizzy for high batting averages down on the farm, because we’ve been so shallow on decent position player prospects for several years. But Amarista isn’t the sort of player that I can get real excited about. We don’t seem to have a problem producing league average middle infielders. We have Segura closely behind him, and I think Segura is more interesting.
Turks Teeth - October 26, 2010
Segura is more interesting
He’s somewhat raw, I want to see a full good season out of him instead of half a good season, but his potential is pretty insane. Like a Howie Kendrick bat with Erick Aybar’s physical prowess. Amarista, I tend to be higher on than most because I really feel like he’s destined for good things. Say what you want about his limited potential but he’s tenacious. I think Luis Castillo will be a good comp for him, he’s a perennial .300 hitter, has excellent patience and outside of a couple insane years, will probably snag 30 bags a year. He’s older now so he’s faded, but I think the skill set is similar. Now compare that with what we have now, and I think it’s slightly an upgrade, unless Howie finally hits like he did in the minors.
Halowood - October 26, 2010
The question wasn't being excited about the prospect
I think rghan was quite clear that Moore had the higher upside (though how high that is right now is debatable with Moore’s relative lack of power to make up for the high K rate and high BABIP), but the question was addressing who had a better shot as being a major league regular.
I think you’re right that there are a ton of Amarista’s in our league, however there’s a reason that a decent hitting middle infielder can consistently get the 1-3 MM on the open market that you mentioned. Everyone needs this type of player, for depth if nothing else, and often in many cases that a .280-.300 hitting 2nd baseman is still something teams lack.
HaloFanInDC - October 26, 2010
Well, to be fair, he asked two questions.
Who sticks in the MLB and whose profile do you prefer?
You answered the former, I answered the latter.
Turks Teeth - October 26, 2010 via mobile
Amarista's best hope for differentiating himself from that group
Is if he can turn into a truly elite, Mark Ellis type defensive second baseman. His offensive game is pretty similar to Aybar and Callaspo, though he may end up with even less HR pop.
rghan - October 26, 2010
Though one of things that has made Ellis stand out...
…beyond his elite defense, has been the fact that from 2005-2009 he could hit 10-20 HRs a year as well. He has Kendrick-like power.
In his best season, 2005, when he delivered 4.4 WAR, 70%+ of that valuation came from his bat.
The reason players like Polanco and Ellis can net $5-6M a year in their thirties is that they often bring a solid bat with their special gloves.
Turks Teeth - October 26, 2010
True
rghan - October 26, 2010
Moore just ripped his second HR in 44 AFL AB's
Scoreboard
rghan - October 26, 2010
Question, you still consider Jordan Walden a prospect?
Halowood - October 26, 2010
He didn't have the days on the roster or the innings to lose rookie status
So should appear on most lists this offseason.
rghan - October 26, 2010
Jeebus -- 17 runs on 20 hits for Mesa through seven innings.
Moore on base four times out of six. With a walk no less!
It’s just hard for me not to root for this guy, given his power potential.
Turks Teeth - October 26, 2010
Well I think you'll find he's walking much more often in the AFL. That's why he's jumping up my list
If he learns to walk, then yeah, I can become a little giddy over his BABIP and hope he turns into Matt Kemp.
Halowood - October 26, 2010
He looks like a bad-ass in his player profile pic as well.
“Just try me.”
Turks Teeth - October 26, 2010
I reacall a story, back when he was just signed,
saying that as a teen in high school he was known to leap over parked cars in parking lots (Walmart) for entertainment.
wumbug - October 26, 2010
I've got to admit,
that story warmed my heart. It reminded me of things that I used to do, or I witnessed my hometown friends doing, to pass the time as we were growing up.
Either way, you’ve got to concede that anyone capable of doing that is one atheletic SOB.
wumbug - October 26, 2010
I posted this in the wrong thread earlier today:
Jeremy Moore is 4 for 6 with a HR and 3 RBI in today’s AFL game
Jeremy Moore is 4 for 6 with a HR and 3 RBI in today’s AFL game. Everyone got a lot of hits (BWood, 2, including one 3B).
Moore is playing CF, he has hit in every AFL game so far, he bats left handed, and leads the league in stolen bases (6).
You know he’s gonna be in AAA in 2011, potentially one year away from MLB.
One has to pause, just for a moment, to wonder if it’s the wisest thing in the world to pay CCrawford (probably) 5/$90MM to play LF for the Angels, possibly blocking forever what might be a decent major league baseball outfielder.
by wumbug on Oct 26, 2010 4:00 PM PDT
wumbug - October 26, 2010
Yep, leftfield is really the least of Angels' free agent needs.
They have so many candidates coming up within a year: Trout, Moore, Trumbo, Pettit, Auer.
There are so many trade alternatives they might be able to swing for one-to-two year deals: DeJesus, Kemp, Josh Willingham, maaaayyybe Jacoby Ellsbury.
Or they could swallow and play Abreu and Willits there, and agree to allow Fleet Pete to roam the field. In a year, many of the trade candidates will be free agents anyway, along with folks like Jose Bautista.
What this club needs from free agency is Adrian Beltre and big thumpin’ DH.
Turks Teeth - October 26, 2010
So you'd sign Beltre and Dunn and allow Abreu to roam LF?
Bourjos is fast, but he can’t cover the entire OF. I want to compete next season and at the same time create a bridge that will get us from this era to the Mike Trout era. Abreu playing LF everyday isn’t competing, it’s seceding 1/3 of the field and inevitably it’s going to cost us some valuable ball games.
I still get the feeling that we’re going to deal Rivera and Callaspo for a LF, give Kazmir a very short leash, cut Mathis, sign Beltre, promote Conger and call it a season.
Halowood - October 26, 2010
It would be cheaper to deal players to Toronto
for the last 4 years of that Great Mistake that is “The Contract Of Vernon Wells” than it would to chase the next 5 to 6 years for Carl Crawford. It would take more than Rivera and Callaspo, however.
Stirrups - October 26, 2010
Actually, I was thinking something more along the lines of....
Abreu + 5 million, Napoli and Jeremy Moore for Matt Kemp. Then trade Callaspo for a left handed starting pitching prospect in A ball. This would lower our payroll by about 6-7 million and leave us with about 16 million to spend before we even reach our 2010 payroll. I’d sign Beltre to 3 years 36 million (12 million a year) and promote Hank Conger. By the time Trout is ready, we could just slide Hunter into the DH spot. The middle of our lineup would look like: 3. Beltre, 4. Morales, 5. Hunter, 6. Kemp.
Strengths: OF defense, OF depth, infield defense, infield depth, speed, power, rotation, bullpen
Weaknesses: low OBP, no proven leadoff hitter, probable weak DH for one year (Rivera or Trumbo).
We’d be a cheaper, much more competitive team. I can’t guarantee we’d win, but that team looks a lot more like a 90 win team than the 2010 version.
Halowood - October 26, 2010
I am kind of going with you here.
Brainstorming on your idea of trading for an OF. Casting about and looking at productive OF’er, Wells pops up. Wells was a bad idea a couple of years ago due to his exhorbitant salary load. Time is chewing that up. Now we have a 4 year deal, which is palatable. And those 4 years would be the same as Crawford money, as if CC would accept only a 4 year deal. So I am picking on him.
Toronto has a low payroll, so they don’t need to move Wells for a salary dump. With Wells’ productivity he would still command a lot of talent in return.
Wells showed a power return after surgery and hamstring injury. His defense is still not outstanding, but it is still better than Rivera.
Something is amiss with Kemp. Even if he rights himself, he carries the stigma of a potential malingerer.
Stirrups - October 26, 2010
Scioscia doesn't put up with those guys.
Abreu was seen as an awful teammate while he was in New York, yet we never had any problem with him. Aybar and Callaspo were both viewed as immature, undisciplined punks coming up and we’ve never had a problem with them. Weave was seen as selfish and whiny coming up, but we never had a problem with him.
The only guys we’ve had issues with are the ones that were clearly just bad people, Hillenbrand and Guillen. The rest seem to just mesh in. I have no doubt Kemp would too.
As fr Vernon Wells,, it would literally take nothing to get him from the Jays. If we took on his contract, they wouldn’t even bother asking for a player in return. He’s cleared waivers each of the past two years I believe. So if we want him, he’s ours, no exchange necessary.
Halowood - October 26, 2010
Four Years/$86MM
Hell! I’d give him away, too!
Somehow, I’m skeptical that he’ll ever repeat 2010’s stats.
Maybe it’s me, but I don’t think this is what Arte meant when he said he was prepared to spend money.
wumbug - October 26, 2010
Through 2007/2008/2009 he was injured, and also had surgery.
2010 was when he came back healthy.
As you note, he is now an $86MM man. And with only a 4 year commit.
Considering the alternative that was the Los Angeles Angels Of Anaheim Season 2010, I’d take that gamble versus racing the Yankees and Red Sox for 5 – 6 years of Carl Crawford.
Stirrups - October 26, 2010
He's now ~32 years old.
It would be a bitch if he got injured again in any of 2011-2014.
From all I’ve ever read about VWells, he’s a helluva nice guy to have around, talented, and hard working. I recall yearning for the Angels to bid for him before his last contract was consummated with Toronto.
However, my personal instinct is to gag at the thought of throwing that kind of money at anyone shy of Albert Pujols.
wumbug - October 27, 2010
The market in 2010 is different than it was in 2007.
Prices go up. In a couple more years chumps of all sorts are gonna be making the money that Pujols will earn in his upcoming option year. In that perspective, Wells will be locked in and be considered a value at $21MM. Assuming, of course, that he does NOT get injured and that he DOES return to what should be his normal career arc for performance. Those are 2 not so unusual IF’s, considering all the IF’s involved in any transaction.
Stirrups - October 27, 2010
Sosh never solved Jose Arredondo. It happens.
Stirrups - October 26, 2010
Curious
What do you think our bullpen will look in 2011? Walden, Rodney, Jepsen, Kohn, Thompson, K-Rod 2, Bulger, Palmer, Bell? And how long will it take until Walden gets the closing job, if he ever gets it?
Slyintine - October 26, 2010
I think we need to anticipate a regression by both Walden and Kohn....
Because it’s a definite possibility. However, should they continue their success then we’ll just be that much stronger. I’m anticipating our bullpen being:
Rodney, Walden, Jepsen, Kohn, Bulger, Thompson.
I think we’ll keep Bell and Palmer in the AAA rotation along with Reckling. Santana gets hurt for a significant amount of time every other year so next year means he’ll miss about 10 starts. Also, Pineiro will more than likely miss a few starts and we have to account for Kazmir’s probable ineffectiveness. So having a deep AAA rotation will be imperative.
Halowood - October 26, 2010
So Walden stays as the setup man for the whole season?
Slyintine - October 26, 2010
Impossible to predict
I’m just going with a gut feeling that Scioscia continues in his ways. He has specific roles pitchers fit into, and he heavily favors veterans. Rodney’s a vet and was signed to be our closer after Fuentes left.
Halowood - October 26, 2010
"All we need is a little tweaking".
I’m not sold on Dunn. I would have to give serious thought to allowing some combination of Abreu, Willits, Rivera, Pettit, Evans to play LF early next season until we get a better picture of what our other options are later in the year. Scioscia said something about “depth at 1B”. That could mean keeping Napoli, Rivera, or Wood.
As hard as I try to reconstruct my thoughts, I don’t see a viable alternative to at least trying to sign Beltre to a reasonable contract. If that’s not in the cards, screw him (and his frickin’ agent)!
A trade for DeJesus seems very appealing for a lot of reasons, but we’ve been screwed by KC’s GM before.
We’ve got a free FA pick. I’d say pick Beltre AND Soriano (premier closers are an Angels’ trademark). Then, trade for DeJesus (Napoli + whatever, within reason).
wumbug - October 26, 2010
I say absolutely not on signing a reliever.
We’re probably already going to have Bell, Palmer and K-Rod 2 in AAA as it is. Also, we have two absolute stud relievers coming up (Steven Geltz and Jeremy Berg) who are already showing signs of being the next Kohn and Walden. Our 2012 bullpen is probably going to look like: Walden, Jepsen, Kohn, Thompson, Geltz and Berg. Now I realize that’s a bunch of relative no names and low paid individuals but I’m telling you right now, that might be the strongest pen we’ve ever assembled.
Halowood - October 26, 2010
Here's a look at their numbers...
Geltz
Berg
Notice how Berg’s never posted an ERA higher than 1.50 and Geltz is striking out nearly 18 batters per 9 innings.
Halowood - October 26, 2010
Fine!
I understand (and accept) your position on relievers. However, the Angels have a history of covering their ass, especially regarding significant positions such as closers. I don’t trust Rodney or Jepsen….and Walden seems too good to be true. Therefore, I can see the Angels going after a proven veteran closer like Soriano.
Some people have suggested going after Cliff Lee. As much as I like the thought, I think a reliable closer would be much more practical.
Evidently, I’m not the only one who is skeptical of the money necessary to buy a big-named LF’er (Crawford).
That leaves 3B. There appears to be only one FA choice. Absent that, go with Izturis/Callaspo/Wood, although some of my scenarios say that even Izturis will be traded.
wumbug - October 26, 2010
I think the word you're looking for is "ceding".
And it’s also a bit of hyperbole. We lost some close games this year not simply because of Bobby’s defense, but because of serious lack of offense. One more year of Bobby part-time in left isn’t going to sink the Haloes if the tradeoff is the addition of Beltre, Dunn and Morales. Our starter’s ERA already improved significantly with Bourjos in CF and Hunter in RF.
Turks Teeth - October 26, 2010 via mobile
Sorry my macbook makes auto-corrections and I didn't notice that one.
We have completely differing opinions about Abreu in LF. I’d even take Dunn in LF over twinkle-toes out there. Awful routes, limited range, weak arm, no thanks. At least with Dunn we know we’d get a good arm.
I think we need a good defensive LF.
Halowood - October 26, 2010
I think decent is probably Moore's upside
I don’t particularly see any star qualities (i hope i’m proven wrong) with Moore. He looks good down in AA, but look historically how our prospects with high K rates pan out. Do you risk getting a proven talent like crawford to take the risk that a fairly high risk prospect some how discovers how to control the K-zone?
HaloFanInDC - October 26, 2010
I understand your thoughts....
Good thing we aren’t being paid to make these decisions.
It takes guts either way, choosing between 5/$90MM vs possibly six years control @ $minimum-$10MM.
wumbug - October 26, 2010
Moore is my favorite darft pick
sooooo toolsie
princeton11loveshalos - October 26, 2010
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