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Halos Heaven

Sam WALKER - The Halos Heaven Interview - Part 2

Link to Part One

Part II

Cupie for Halos Heaven: During the writing of Fantasyland, who were some of your favorite players? Could you share with us a favorite moment or story?
Sam Walker: It's hard to pick one moment. There were so many times when I walked out of the ballpark and asked myself "did that really just happen?" A short list would include Bubba Crosby's big day, Doug Mientkiewicz's incident with the ladder in Seattle, my impromptu "hug" with Jose Guillen, the beer with Mueller and the night Jones hit an impossible opposite-field home run at Yankee Stadium off Mike Mussina less than 24 hours after making funeral arrangements for his dad.

Looking back now, my favorite interactions were with David Ortiz. This was the year he really became a star, and I had a great time following him from Spring Training to the All-Star Game to the World Series. The moment I'll remember most took place in Anaheim in July. I'll set it up: In the middle of the season my team needed steals and had a little power to spare, so I started looking into trading Big Papi for Alfonso Soriano. Without getting into too much detail, I'd asked Papi if he thought this was a good idea and he'd been a little coy about it, but hadn't specifically told me not to.

So a few days later I was there in Anaheim watching Boston play the Angels. Ortiz had hit something like three homers in the four days since I'd traded him and I was already regretting the deal. That afternoon he sealed my doom by crushing a ball that flew almost directly over my head in the outfield. I don't know what came over me, but I marched down to the clubhouse after the game to confront him about this. I said "Papi, you're killing me!" When I reminded him that I'd traded him for Soriano--partly on his advice, he started laughing. "You shouldn't have listened to me," he said. "I'm about to get hot!"

It was horrifying and hilarious at the same time, which is sort of a perfect encapsulation of what it's like to play fantasy baseball.

Halos Heaven: In the book you mention speaking to some GMs in MLB. How do they feel about fantasy baseball, especially now that some who found their roots in fantasy have found their way into the front office?
Sam Walker: They run the gamut. The one time I asked Bill Stoneman about it, he looked at me like I was a space alien. On the other hand, Theo Epstein played Rotisserie in high school but quit because he says he didn't like rooting against the Red Sox. Billy Beane once had a fantasy league in the A's front office with Paul Depodesta and a couple of others. He told me he loved it because he was finally able to have all the players he could never afford in real life--guys like Greg Maddux and Albert Belle.

In general, GMs are just sort of resigned to it. Jim Hendry says he's always talking to his neighbors about their fantasy teams and Terry Ryan told me his son plays. For the most part, they're wary of it. They laugh at the morons who send them resumes bragging about how many years in a row they've won their leagues. But a lot of GMs still troll the fantasy annuals and Web sites for information. I talked to one AL GM who happily broke down all of his players for me in fantasy terms, then told me not to use his name because he didn't want to look "too much like a fantasy guy."

I think the stigma is disappearing, though. In recent years the Mariners, Cardinals, Brewers, Blue Jays and Yankees have hired former fantasy experts as consultants, scouts or analysts, with most of them coming from Tout Wars.

Halos Heaven: Halos Heaven is an Angels blog, so I have to ask about the Jose Guillen episode. Besides the Big Papi trade and the Cinco de Mayo Massacre, this is my favorite part of the book. I think most fantasy players would have loved to do what you did, petitioning management and the manager. In hindsight, do you think the Angels were justified in their suspension of Guillen?
Sam Walker: No way.

For one thing, the punishment didn't fit the crime. If Jose had refused to play for some reason or had been dogging it during what was a crucial game in the middle of a pennant race, then yes, I would have sacked him too.

But remember the reason Jose blew his stack in the dugout: It was because Scioscia chose to pull Jose for a pinch runner after he'd been hit by a pitch in the late innings of a tight game against Oakland. I know it's never good to show up your manager, but if the reason is that you really really want to stay in an important game (and if you happen to be hitting .294 on the season with 27 homers and 104 RBI) then isn't that forgivable?

Another thing: this is a baseball team, not an Applebee's. These guys are paid millions to play a game. Where does it say that they also need job satisfaction, team harmony and a positive work environment? If Guillen was screwing up the team chemistry and the team was losing, that's one thing. But they were in a pennant race with one more week left in the season!

Seriously, If Vladimir Guerrero can't hit home runs and Scot Shields can't throw the ball straight because they hate Jose Guillen so much, isn't that their problem? I've heard the argument that the Angels got a little bump from the Guillen suspension and that it helped them make the postseason. But nobody seems to want to mention that Boston swept them in the Division Series, where the team hit a miserable .226. The guy who replaced Jose, Jeff Davanon, was 2 for 10 with no RBI.

When I asked Mike Scioscia about this in the book, he hinted that there had been other incidents behind the scenes involving Jose that were even worse. I don't doubt this. I'm sure Jose wasn't a lot of fun in the clubhouse. But was canning him worth blowing a shot at the World Series? If the Angels hadn't won in 2002, I bet they wouldn't have done this. I think this was a case of management feeling pretty fat and happy and indulging themselves. If I was an Angels fan, I'd still be hot about this.

Halos Heaven: And what do you think about Erstad and Percival's reaction to your petition and picketing?
Sam Walker: Hey, we probably deserved it. Nobody likes to be accosted by Roto dorks in the morning. But the fact that they said these things while stepping into a stretch limo that was taking them to the ballpark made it seem pretty ridiculous. Everybody else, including their manager and three of his coaches, was happy to share a cab.

Not that there's any hard feelings. I have Erstad on my team this year.

HH: Who do you like on the Angels in 2007?
Sam Walker: I'm still kicking myself for passing on Lackey in Tout Wars. He's a thoughtful and intelligent pitcher who should have the same sort of longevity as Maddux, Glavine and Schilling. In fact, Lackey's Tout Wars price ($24) made him the second most valuable pitcher in the American League next to Johan Santana. Kendrick was a joy to watch early on and I'm happy that Gary Matthews is starting to show that his signing wasn't totally outrageous (if you play fantasy baseball, you've noticed there's a lack of outfield depth in baseball, and especially in the American League--which suggests Matthews is worth more than it seems). I've always thought Juan Rivera had superstar potential, we'll see what happens in June. But my favorite is David Eckstein....

Oh, wait.

HH: For us fantasy geeks on Halos Heaven, is there anyone in the minor leagues that has a chance of making an impact this year?
Sam Walker: Jeff Mathis seems to have all the tools to become one of the league's premier offensive catchers sooner rather than later. I like that he's taking a few more walks at Salt Lake.

Tomorrow, in the exciting conclusion to our visit with Sam Walker, the author reveals that a stat analysts he hired for the book now wears a world series ring and discusses his life while absorbed in the simultaneous worlds of fantasy and real baseball.

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Comments

The facts
I've heard the argument that the Angels got a little bump from the Guillen suspension and that it helped them make the postseason. But nobody seems to want to mention that Boston swept them in the Division Series, where the team hit a miserable .226. The guy who replaced Jose, Jeff Davanon, was 2 for 10 with no RBI.

Sorry, but that's total bullshit.  Over the last month that Guillen played for the Angels, spanning from August 27th to September 25th (no game on August 26th), here's what he did:

96 Plate Appearances
93 At Bats
2 Walks
1 Hit By Pitch
22 Hits
5 Doubles
1 Home Run
5 RBIs

.237 Average
.260 OBP
.323 SLG
.583 OPS

He was absolutely killing the Angels.  He'd played like shit the entire month.  On August 27th, they trailed Oakland by 1 game.  They gained no ground on Oakland over that span.  

After they suspended him, they went 6-1 in the next seven games, picking up three games on Oakland to win the division on the second to last day.  Here's how the left fielders did in his place in those games.

9/26: Win - Riggs was 2-2 with a double and an RBI.  Davanon was 0-2.

9/27: Win - Riggs was 0-4 with an RBI

9/28: Win - Davanon was 1-2 with three walks

9/29: Win in 11 innings.  This was the game where Curtis Pride, playing what else, left field, in the ninth inning hit a two out double to drive in the tying run before Glaus hit a homer in the 11th. - Davanon was 1-4 with a run, a walk, and two RBIs.  Pride was 1-2 with an RBI.

9/30: Loss - Pride 0-2; Riggs 1-1.

10/1: Win - Riggs 1-2, Run, Double; Pride 0-1; Davanon 0-0, 3 walks, Run

10/2: Win - Riggs and Davanon combined 0-4.

By my count, that's as many RBIs and more walks in those seven games than Guillen had in his entire last month, plus the huge clutch double from Pride, which was the first save that Francisco Cordero blew all season.  

That's all before even taking into account that Guillen threw his bitch fit in arguably the most obvious pinch run situation in baseball history, one that worked out exactly according to plan as Amazega scored on a subsequent double, which is exactly why he was brought into the game.  

And of course, that ignores the fact that by all accounts, it wasn't that one blow up that earned him the suspension.  That was simply the straw that broke the camel's back.

The Angels would not have made the playoffs without Jose Guillen's production over the first five months of 2004.  The Angels would not have made the playoffs if they hadn't suspended Guillen in 2004.

I don't care how poorly they swung the bats against Boston.  If they hadn't suspended Guillen, they wouldn't have even made it to that series.

that's how I remember it as well....
I can't think of one bad thing about the Guillen suspension.  I can't imagine more than 1% of hard core Angels fans can.  The Angels proclaiming that there is an 'Angels style of baseball, and if you don't play it you're gone' at the most important part of the season was huge to me.

(ofcourse subsequent signings like Alfonzo and Hillenbrand go in the face of this, but still)

one of the best posts ever at HH
couldn't agree more.
And Yikes!!
He's a thoughtful and intelligent pitcher who should have the same sort of longevity as Maddux, Glavine and Schilling.

I love John Lackey, but thoughtful and intelligent (at least on the mound, I'm sure he's thoughtful and intelligent otherwise) is not how I'd describe a guy who consistently takes 6, 7, 8 pitches to retire batters he gets ahead of 0-2.  Let's not forget this from Nate Silver:

...Lackey has wound up walking the batter 4.7% of the time that the at-bat starts out with an 0-2 count. That struck me as a high percentage...and in fact it is. I took a sample of 25 arbitrarily-selected starting pitchers,....[O]nly two of these pitchers walked the hitter more often than Lackey. [ed. note: the list contained all quality starting pitchers, ranging from Johan Santana at the high end of the ability scale down to probably Eric Milton at the low end]

That strikes me as a guy with great stuff, who tries to rely on the strikeout far too often.  

Again, Lackey is a stud, and if changing his strategy would hurt his effectiveness, then by all means, keep going for the K, but it seems to me that a thoughtful and intelligent pitcher, like Maddux and Glavine, would get a lot more early count outs.  Indeed, that's why Greg Maddux has pitched complete games in his career with fewer than 90 pitches.

whatever
Sam, the book is nails. Cupie, the interview is nails.
He had me until he said Jose Guillen
I was thoroughly enjoying reading HH's interview with Sam Walker, I even considered getting a copy of his book, until I read his comments regarding Jose Guillen.  I'm absolutely speechless.  Is this the kind of baseball insights that one needs to exhibit to get a job with the Wall Street Journal and a book publish by Penguin?  I keep scrolling back up to reread Walker's comments and I just don't get it.  Does he honestly believe what he said?  If I wanted this type of debate I would listen to sports talk radio - at least it is amusing, at times.  
Couldn't agree more.
This guy is definately "baseball" intelligent, but I think its a little case of fantasy distorting reality.  We all want to win a World Series but I'm a little irritated that he would try and tell us how we felt about the situation.  Guillen was a cancer, and every true Angel fan knew that.

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